Close Enh Ii Share Discussion Threads

[ianbrewster] 12/3/2009 22:26

Am I missing something, or is this priced for at least one of the CPs defaulting?

You buy for 57.5p and (assuming the CPs survive) get 100p back in 2013. Just under 14% pa by my calculations.

The CP risk is split evenly, so if 1 goes, then we should still have 80p (8% pa). If 2 go, then 60p is still break even.

Any thoughts??

[skyship] 08/12/2008 13:42

Thnx for that...

[ptolemy] 08/12/2008 13:40

Skyship,
Saw you Q on another thread. Don't know is the answer - took it off my immediate watchlist for the reasons I've stated. Here are the CPs for future:

Caisse Centrale du Credit Immobilier de
Erste Bank 0% EMTN
Irish Life & Permanent plc
Mediobanca SpA 0% EMTN
SNS Bank NV 0% EMTN

I continue to be interested in my question to erstwhile2, but so far he hasn't responded.

[skyship] 08/12/2008 11:20

Perhaps the collapsing counterparty thought was wrong - thankfully! Fall may have been due to a couple of sellers dumping into a Market with no buyers. Someone has hoovered up today @ 63.5p. At 65p the GRY = 10.1%

[skyship] 05/12/2008 16:25

Are there underlying problems here - dropped out of bed this afternoon! Has one of the counterparty's gone belly-up does anyone know?

[davebowler] 12/9/2008 11:59

Based on the values of the commodities as at 29 August 2008, and assuming these values
were to remain unchanged through to the end of
the life of the Company, the final capital entitlement per Share on the Redemption Date would
be 121 pence. This is not a forecast nor is
it a reflection of the net asset value per Share and takes no account of any unforeseen
circumstances and is provided for informational
purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions.

[davebowler] 27/8/2008 10:04

Based on the values of the commodities as at 31 July 2008, and assuming these values were
to remain unchanged through to the end of the
life of the Company, the final capital entitlement per Share on the Redemption Date would be
135 pence. This is not a forecast nor is it a
reflection of the net asset value per Share and takes no account of any unforeseen
circumstances and is provided for informational purposes
only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions.

[davebowler] 09/7/2008 13:31

Latest Factsheet

[praipus] 08/7/2008 08:59

Some one has nicked all the copper cables out of a local telephone exchange and BT are saying it could take up to two weeks to fix!

[praipus] 07/7/2008 15:36

CED2 COMMODITY ETFS

[praipus] 26/6/2008 20:19

Oil through $140 with support might even make CED2 rise!

[praipus] 26/6/2008 17:42

Thanks

Been dabbling with long and short crude. ETF CRUD.L long and SOIL.L short!

Great fun...still got some money left.

[davebowler] 26/6/2008 16:44

Soft commodities jumping

[praipus] 24/6/2008 12:01

Perhaps that is not such a bad thing. Maybe this is the next split cap type opportunity in which pessimism undervalues until wind-up. Investors can load up on the way down and scoop the cash in 2013.

I liked erstwhile2's comments on the CED thread. I was not aware of ETF's for commodities and am disappointed I hadnt bought a few more a long time ago.

Mind you I'm not a seller here inspite of counterparty fears.

[davebowler] 23/6/2008 14:55

General pessimism I presume!

[praipus] 23/6/2008 14:53

davebowler CED2 does not appear to have any debt with Giltnir so why the punishment I wonder.

[praipus] 23/6/2008 10:17

davebowler/erstwhile2, is CED2 any safer than CED from a counterparty point of view?

[davebowler] 20/6/2008 15:12

Praipus this relates to CED the earlier version of this with a Gold Oil and Base Metals link to give its return.
This statement was released today and gives some reassurance on the counterparty risk;





As part of its investment portfolio, the Company holds a debt security issued by Glitnir
Banki HF ("Glitnir") with a nominal value of
£6,740,000 and a market value, as at the reporting date, of £19,417,777. This represents
18.91 per cent of the value of the Company's net
assets as at the reporting date.

On 21 April 2008, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term counterparty
credit rating on Glitnir one notch from A- to
BBB+, with a negative outlook. Moody's rating has remained unchanged since 28 February 2008,
at A2, with a stable outlook. As a result of
the downgrade, the Board considered both the sale and the retention of the Glitnir debt
security, acting in the best interests of the
Company and Shareholders.
The Board reviewed Glitnir's financial results for the first quarter of 2008, including
its liquidity and capital adequacy position, as
well as recent research updates from the ratings agencies. Whilst Glitnir's profitability has
been, and is likely to remain, volatile due to
difficult conditions in capital markets and investment banking and the Icelandic economy, the
ratings agencies noted Glitnir's strong and
sound levels of liquidity, and its ability to meet commitments falling due over the
short-to-medium term, even under comprehensive stress
test conditions. They also considered that, should systemic support ever be required from the
Icelandic authorities, it would likely be
forthcoming. The ratings agencies are not, therefore, suggesting that Glitnir will likely
default on its liabilities. In fact, to the
contrary, a BBB+ rating is defined by Standard & Poor's as investment grade, with an
"adequate" capacity to meet its financial commitments.
The Board also considered how the Final Capital Entitlement of the Shares might be
affected by any sale of the Glitnir debt security and
noted that there could be a significant cost involved, resulting in an irreversible reduction
in the terms stated in the Company's
investment objective and expected by Shareholders.
On the basis of the prevailing facts, the Board therefore concluded that it would not be
in the best interests of the Company and
Shareholders to sell the Glitnir debt security, but will continue to monitor the situation.

[praipus] 13/6/2008 12:02

Excellent thanks davebowler, fascinating just poses more questions. How easy is it for these guys to walk from their obligations? What recourse does the private investor have if it goes wrong? It seems to me it would actually be in their (the conterparties) interest to default asssuming commodities continue to rise they would have to pay out. Probability today does not seem to be in their favour.

Fundamentally our interests are not aligned it would seem. We win they loose, they win we loose. Or is there a win win element?

[davebowler] 12/6/2008 17:36

Found it;

Debt Securities Portfolio
Nominal Valuation Total Net

Holdings GBP Assets%


Caisse Centrale du Credit Immobilier de 9,050,000 9,011,085 18.93%
France 0% EMTN 14 June 2013

Erste Bank 0% EMTN 14 June 2013 9,050,000 9,058,779 19.04%

Irish Life & Permanent plc 0%
EMTN 14 June 2013 9,050,000 9,037,149 18.99%

Mediobanca SpA 0% EMTN 14 June 2013 9,050,000 9,035,339 18.99%

SNS Bank NV 0% EMTN 14 June 2013 9,050,000 8,996,605 18.90%

45,250,000 45,138,957 94.85%

[davebowler] 12/6/2008 17:34

Look at the last annual report they are on there.

[praipus] 12/6/2008 09:35

Thanks NabCom

"invested in a portfolio of debt securities based on a notional portfolio of commodities"....wonder what they are?

[nabcom] 11/6/2008 19:11

You might find it here:

As far as I can see all they say is "The final return is subject to there being no counterparty default or any other unforeseen circumstances"

[praipus] 11/6/2008 17:49

If one of the counterparties did go bust perhaps shareholders would have a case for an EGM and voting for early liquidation.

Did you ever see a copy of the prospectus? (cant find one on line wouldnt mind reading up on what they say about risk).