Close Enh Ii Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 11/6/2008 13:51

I can live with the volatility -its the counterparty risk that bothers me
on this and CED.

[praipus] 11/6/2008 13:43

My pleasure, thanks for adding the URL's, all helps take my mind off of the nail biting volatility.

Oil's continued rise will I assume continue to put upward pressure on soft commodities through increased production, harvesting and transport costs.

[davebowler] 11/6/2008 13:32

Thanks for the lesson!

[praipus] 06/6/2008 16:01

lol....

Next to the header entry you should see the word "edit".

If you click on that it will allow you to edit the contents of the header and add the URL/link to the managers web site.



then click on "update"

[davebowler] 06/6/2008 15:44

Sorry praipus-I don't know how to do it!

[praipus] 06/6/2008 14:51

Oil soars on $150 per barrel July 4 prediction




(AP) - Oil is trading above $134 per barrel on an analyst prediction that
prices could hit $150 by July 4.
Prices jumped $6.43 Friday shortly after Ole Slorer of Morgan Stanley
released a report saying he expected a "short-term spike in oil prices," on the
back of rising demand in Asia, Dow Jones Newswires reported.
By the afternoon in Europe, light, sweet crude for July delivery was up
$6.43 to $134.22 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
On Thursday, the contract rose $5.49 -- its biggest single-day price
increase in Nymex history -- to settle at $127.79 a barrel. Larger one-day
percentage jumps have taken place in the past.

Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be
published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

[praipus] 04/6/2008 21:04

davebowler, please could you add this link to the header?

www.closeinvestments.co.uk

[davebowler] 15/4/2008 13:01

Softs are roughly half of the portfolio in value now due to their rise.

[davebowler] 28/3/2008 14:46

Useful article on soft commodities;

[praipus] 20/3/2008 17:14

From the FT.com

Commodity prices part speculative - IMF
By Javier Blas, Commodities Correspondent

Published: March 20 2008 13:02 | Last updated: March 20 2008 13:02

The strength of commodities prices, such as crude oil, this year is explained in a large part by speculative factors such as investors piling into the new asset class and the weakness of the US dollar, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

The warning came as commodities prices fell across the board, with oil prices dropping below the $100 a barrel level, gold prices tumbling 10 per cent from their recent record above $1,000 a troy ounce and sharp falls in base metals and grains.

Commodities prices fell as investors, who have poured record amounts of money into raw materials so far this year, cut leverage and fled into cash and short-term US treasuries and bonds. The yield of the three-months US Treasury fell to a 50-year low of 0.56 per cent on Wednesday.

John Reade, metals strategist at UBS in London, said: "It seems as if large-scale deleveraging is occurring across many asset classes and commodities – as profitable and recently fashionable trades – are being caught up in this trend."

The fall in commodities prices, if sustained, could push down inflationary pressures both in developed and developing economies, analysts said. Until now, rising commodity prices have led to pressures on inflation, reducing central banks' room of manoeuvre to insulate their economies from the impact of the credit squeeze.

The IMF said that the constellation of dollar depreciation and falling short-term real interest rates "has pushed up commodity prices through a number of channels, including by enhancing the attractiveness of commodities as an alternative asset."

"Overall, these financial factors seem to explain a large part of the increase in crude oil prices so far in 2008, as well as the rising prices of other commodities," it said.

It added that as global economic growth is widely expected to decline this year and in 2009, "prices of most commodities should eventually start easing." However, it added that "unless there is a substantial global downturn, however, the extent of easing may be small, given the current tight balances in some commodity markets."

The IMF said that in all recent global downturns, commodity prices declined sharply, "suggesting a disconnect between commodity prices and the ongoing slowdown."

However, it added that much of the apparent disconnect reflected the fact that developing countries, which have been responsible for the bulk of recent commodity demand growth, have so far been less affected by the slowing growth.

"The resilience of high commodity prices will depend on the extent of spillovers of slowing growth in advanced economies to the rest of the world," it said.

Crude oil prices fell to a three-week low below $100 a barrel. Nymex May West Texas Intermediate drop $3.34 to $99.20 a barrel, well below the all-time high of $111.80 a barrel it set earlier this week.

In the base metals market, copper dropped to a month-low. On the London Metal Exchange, three-months forward copper fell 2.8 per cent to $7,710 a tonne while aluminium dropped 2.8 per cent to $2,837 a tonne.

Agricultural commodities also fell sharply. CBOT May corn fell to a month-low of $5.08 a bushel, down 3.7 per cent on the day. CBOT May wheat also dropped to a month-low of $10.36 a bushel, down 3.5 per cent on the day.

CBOT May soyabeans plunged to a two-month low of $12.07 a bushel, down nearly 4.0 per cent on the day.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

[praipus] 20/3/2008 14:18

Has global demand slackened off or is it my magic touch?

Bought in at £1.26 absolute topps....deep joy.

[badtime] 19/3/2008 00:26

personally i c this trust as part of my overal portfolio...a str84ward way to hav exposure to commods/softs

[woracle] 18/3/2008 23:31

I think over 50% softs now.. Anyway, the long term story is pretty simple for all commodities.. I prefer to keep it that way !

[badtime] 18/3/2008 23:22

But then this is made up partially of metals/oil..jus balanced by some softs

[woracle] 18/3/2008 22:07

That ft article isnt about Agri commodities really.. its about Crude and industrial metals. The chinese and indians may use less energy and metals but I doubt they will eat less during a period of economic tightening.

[praipus] 18/3/2008 14:15

From the FT

Insight: Commodities swamped in rush to safety

[woracle] 14/3/2008 21:18

Cheers mangal, I made a similar spreadsheet but would be nice to see it in real-time on spot prices. Anyone know what the highest discount to termination NAV this has ever traded at ?

[mangal] 14/3/2008 17:39

The spreadsheet for this was last put up on the CED thread:


The values are a bit dated now. Unfortunately, I don't know of any automatic way of updating them with real time values. It would be most useful if someone who knows lets us know how to do it.

[davebowler] 14/3/2008 13:34

From the RNS ;

The investment objective of the Company is to provide to shareholders, on the
Redemption Date in June 2013, a capital amount of 100 pence per Share and a
growth amount equal to two times any percentage increase in the End Value* of
the Commodity Portfolio relative to its Start Value.

The Commodity Portfolio is a notional portfolio of commodities comprising by
value on the Start Date, being 31 May 2007, one-eighth of each of oil, copper,
aluminium, zinc, nickel, sugar, corn and wheat.

Based on the values of the commodities as at 29 February 2008, and assuming
these values were to remain unchanged through to the end of the life of the
Company, the final capital entitlement per Share on the Redemption Date would be
152 pence. This is not a forecast nor is it a reflection of the net asset value
per Share and takes no account of any unforeseen circumstances and is provided
for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment
decisions.

Commodity Start Value As at
29 February 2008
Brent Crude Oil $68.04 $ 100.10
Aluminium $2,733.50 $ 3,086.00
Copper $7,440.50 $ 8,540.50
Nickel $50,900.00 $ 31,505.00
Zinc $3,685.50 $ 2,721.00
Corn 390.25c 546.00c
Sugar 9.34c 14.27c
Wheat 517.00c 1,073.00c
Commodity Portfolio = 100.00% 126.35%

Payoff Profile

The table below illustrates how the final capital entitlement of the Shares
might vary for different End Values of the Commodity Portfolio.

Percentage change in End Value of the Commodity Portfolio Final Capital
relative to its Start Value Entitlement
-100% 100
-50% 100
0% 100
50% 200
100% 300
150% 400
200% 500

The final return is subject to there being no counterparty default or any other
unforeseen circumstances.

* The End Value will be the average value of the Commodity Portfolio over the
one year period ending on 31 May 2013.

The monthly factsheet is available on the website www.closeinvestments.co.uk

For further information contact:

Anson Fund Managers Limited

[davebowler] 14/3/2008 10:46

Woracle, mangal has a spreadsheet which calculates it and contributes periodically.

[badtime] 14/3/2008 10:27

Dipped in for a few more first thing

[woracle] 13/3/2008 22:37

Bought in today in CED2 and CED for my SIPP and ISA. Anyone managed to get the portfolio function here to add the prices of the commodities ? I'm not sure of the tickers..The formula for the units of each component is easy. Would be a nice way to get a real time NAV..

[davebowler] 13/3/2008 16:44

Jim Rogers interviewed on CNBC.