Close Enh Ii Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 04/3/2008 09:52

Mangal ,if your figures below are correct it now means this fund has half its exposure to softs -which if multiplied by two gives 100% exposure -with the other
commodities thrown in for free-and protection,too.


--------------al cu zn nk oil wheat corn sugar Total p
NAV-start(p) 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 100p
u/l price-start 2733 7440 3686 50900 68 517 390 9.3 -
u/l price-now 3077 8532 2728 31218 100 1110 554 14.7 -
NAV-now(p) 14.0 14.3 9.3 7.7 18.4 26.9 17.8 19.6 128p

Thus, the NAV now = 156p; so, the [sp 118p] discount to NAV is 25% apprx.

[nabcom] 29/2/2008 19:21

From Times Online
February 28, 2008

Quantum's Jim Rogers says US 'out of control'

Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent

Jim Rogers - who co-founded the now closed Quantum Fund with George Soros - told 750 global fund managers in Tokyo today that, America is "completely out of control", there will be a 20-year bull market in commodities and that prices will be in turmoil.

And he also warned that it "made sense" if global competition for resources ended in armed conflict.

Mr Rogers told delegates to the CLSA investment forum that the prices of all agricultural products would "explode" in coming years and that the price of gold, which hit an all-time high of $964 an ounce yesterday, will continue its surge to as much as $3,500 an ounce.

[badtime] 29/2/2008 19:15

Took a nibble first thing....37k buy late on..cud b tilts with some spare change :)

[mangal] 29/2/2008 09:34

This is now at a greater discount to NAV than CED.

[badtime] 28/2/2008 21:14

hmmm..shud i buy...hmmm

[mangal] 28/2/2008 20:44

Yes, 130p is roughly what I calculated as the u/l price.
So the NAV[ie the final payment due, assuming no further change in u/l] is 100+(30*2) ie 160p
So, discount to NAV for offer-sp of 121p is 24% apprx.

[zutalors] 28/2/2008 20:04

I see that Trustnet are showing the share price at a premium off 22.3%. That must be because they have yet to update the starting NAV of 97.5.

Using your figures Mangal, I calculate the NAV to be 132 and the discount therefore to be 9% on an offer price of 121. If these fugures are accurate it can only be by accident because my maths is suspect. In other words, DYOC.

[mangal] 28/2/2008 13:08

I think the values, start & current, are as follows:

Brent Crude Oil $68.04 $98
Aluminium $2,733.50 $3051
Copper $7,440.50 $8507
Nickel $50,900.00 $30145
Zinc $3,685.50 $2648
Corn 390.25c 538c
Sugar 9.34c 14.5c
Wheat 517.00c 1231c

[zutalors] 28/2/2008 09:27

I would be interested to see your figures mangal

[mangal] 27/2/2008 09:02

I have been tracking these to seek the appropriate time to buy. This might in fact be a good time as the discount to NAV has now widened to over 20%, I think.

[bangor] 12/2/2008 14:24

Quotes below - also see AIGA thread:

American International Group (AIG) revealed yesterday its auditors had questioned whether it had properly valued its derivatives portfolio, raising new questions about accounting practices at the world's largest insurance firm.


The disclosure sent AIG shares down 11pc and cast doubt on the company's previous contention that it does not face major problems stemming from the credit crisis that has hit other financial institutions.

"(We) believe AIG management will have an extremely difficult time regaining investor confidence," said Standard & Poor's.


S&P said the company's problems with valuing the derivatives portfolio were "very troubling".

The announcement "will leave investors worrying about other skeletons in the closet,'' said Nigel Dally, an analyst at Morgan Stanley. "Investors should brace for a mark-to-market loss of roughly $5bn in the upcoming quarterly results.''

[davebowler] 12/2/2008 14:04

What problems are you referring to Bangor?

[bangor] 12/2/2008 13:55

It's apity the Close Agricultural did not come off due to lack of interest. Also a pity this is only 3/7ths softs and too much metals. I have been put off the ETCs such as AIGA because of AIGs financial problems. There are so few ag alternatives which can go in ISAs or SIPPS. I trade Soc Gens ags such as SM64. Any other ideas?

[davebowler] 11/2/2008 17:37

The investment objective of the Company is to provide to shareholders, on the
Redemption Date in June 2013, a capital amount of 100 pence per Share and a
growth amount equal to two times any percentage increase in the End Value* of
the Commodity Portfolio relative to its Start Value.

The Commodity Portfolio is a notional portfolio of commodities comprising by
value on the Start Date, being 31 May 2007, one-eighth of each of oil, copper,
aluminium, zinc, nickel, sugar, corn and wheat.

Based on the values of the commodities as at 31 January 2008, and assuming these
values were to remain unchanged through to the end of the life of the Company,
the final capital entitlement per Share on the Redemption Date would be 122
pence. This is not a forecast nor is it a reflection of the net asset value per
Share and takes no account of any unforeseen circumstances and is provided for
informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment
decisions.

Commodity Start Value As at
31 January 2008

Brent Crude Oil $68.04 $ 92.21
Aluminium $2,733.50 $ 2,643.00
Copper $7,440.50 $ 7,170.50
Nickel $50,900.00 $ 27,550.00
Zinc $3,685.50 $ 2,392.00
Corn 390.25c 501.25c
Sugar 9.34c 12.36c
Wheat 517.00c 929.50c
Commodity Portfolio = 100.00% 111.02%

[mangal] 28/1/2008 18:37

I have been tracking this for sometime to find a suitable entry point such that the discount to NAV is "sufficiently" large to provide some downside protection, as with CED. The discount has gradually crept up over the last few days and the time to invest may be almost there- I think this is now trading at a discount of around 10%.

[mart] 14/1/2008 23:04

Just caught this thread. Only just started taking an interest in commodities in the last couple of months. Currently in SM61 ( a Soc Gen covered call warrant for the GS Agricultural Index), which has produced good returns over the last few weeks.

[nandan] 13/12/2007 13:52

Called Close, they will not be listing the Argiculture Trust as they did not receive enough money...

[smarm] 11/12/2007 23:34

Hi Dave,

CED2 a great investment opportunity, particularly if the markets continue to be difficult. Just sorry I missed CED but didn't know it existed.

Are you aware that the IPO for the Close Brothers Agricultual fund closed today. Only 85% protection and 125% of underlying ags but might be worth a look. Not sure when it lists.

S

[davebowler] 10/12/2007 10:58

AIGA the Exchange traded fund invested in Agricultural commodities hit an all time high today.

[davebowler] 04/10/2007 16:41

Based on the values of the commodities as at 28 September 2007, and assuming
these values were to remain unchanged through to the end of the life of the
Company, the final capital entitlement per Share on the Redemption Date would be
109 pence. This is not a forecast nor is it a reflection of the net asset value
per Share and takes no account of any unforeseen circumstances and is provided
for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment
decisions.



A 7% discount arguably to NAV

Plus you can use your ISA /PEP

[davebowler] 21/9/2007 15:03

7 September 2007

Close Enhanced Commodities Fund II Limited (the "Company")


The investment objective of the Company is to provide to shareholders, on the
Redemption Date in June 2013, a capital amount of 100 pence per Share and a
growth amount equal to two times any percentage increase in the End Value* of
the Commodity Portfolio relative to its Start Value.

The Commodity Portfolio is a notional portfolio of commodities comprising by
value on the Start Date, being 31 May 2007, one-eighth of each of oil, copper,
aluminium, zinc, nickel, sugar, corn and wheat.

Based on the values of the commodities as at 31 August 2007, and assuming these
values were to remain unchanged through to the end of the life of the Company,
the final capital entitlement per Share on the Redemption Date would be 100
pence. This is not a forecast nor is it a reflection of the net asset value per
Share and takes no account of any unforeseen circumstances and is provided for
informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment
decisions.

Commodity Start Value -------- As at 31/08/07

Brent Crude Oil $68.04 ------- $72.69
Aluminium $2,733.50 ------- $2,500.00
Copper $7,440.50 -------- $7,580.00
Nickel $50,900.00 ------- $30,250.00
Zinc $3,685.50 ------ $3,070.00
Corn 390.25c ------ 324.00c
Sugar 9.34c ----- 9.48c
Wheat 517.00c ------ 767.00c
Commodity Portfolio = 100.00% ----- 96.97%

Payoff Profile

The table below illustrates how the final capital entitlement of the Shares
might vary for different End Values of the Commodity Portfolio.

Percentage change in End Value ------ Final Capital
of the Commodity Portfolio -------- Entitlement
- - - - - ---------------relative to its Start Value

-100% --- 100
-50% ---- 100
0% --- - 100
50% -- - 200
100% -- - 300
150% --- 400
200% -- - 500



The final return is subject to there being no counterparty default or any other
unforeseen circumstances.

* The End Value will be the average value of the Commodity Portfolio over the
one year period ending on 31 May 2013.

The monthly factsheet is available on the website www.closefm.com.

For further information contact:

[richandjanet] 21/9/2007 08:53

Thanks Dave been watching this one Can't be many share investments with virtually no downside. This guarantees to pay at least 100p in June 2013. The capital growth depends on the growth of the commodity portfolio Its had a bad start mainly due to the fall in the Nickel price but a long way to go.

Take a look at CED to see what can be achieved if prices move in the right direction