Cqs Natural Resources Gr... Share Discussion Threads

[washbrook] 18/12/2009 22:54

A happy Chrismas to all.
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[washbrook] 18/12/2009 16:45

brwm
looking cheap at the close

[washbrook] 18/12/2009 15:23

NAV UPDATE for16.12.09
CYN=189.75p
NAV=216.89p
DISCOUNT-12.5%
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BRWM=539p
NAV=646.72p
DISCOUNT - 16.12%
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NAV UPDATE for9.12.09
CYN=186p
NAV=218.58p
DISCOUNT-14.9%
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BRWM=532.5p
NAV=632.098
DISCOUNT - 15.9%
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NAV UPDATE for 2.12.09-CYN -
NAV 225.62p
SP=190
-15.79% discount.
BRWM-
NAV 665.12
SP=542p
-18.5% discount.

[washbrook] 17/12/2009 12:52

FROM GANN MANAGEMENT
---------------------

The Dragon Time Bomb!

Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have......Play great defense, not great offence....THEN The profits will follow' - Paul Tudor Jones

DragonThe western world's debt burden is growing exponentially and is desperately necessitating the search for creditors in order to supply the capital to support these crunched economies. Sovereign debt in the form of Treasury Bonds and Gilts will be the predominant method of raising this capital. A large chunk will have to be sought from foreign countries.

This was the case in the 1970's when the huge rise in oil prices transferred the world's excess wealth to the Middle East. This excess wealth was then distributed mainly to the USA. The USA promptly allowed inflation to take hold in order to pay back the loans with cheaper dollars. This was a double whammy against the creditors as when the US dollar falls US Treasury yield rises with a fall in Bond values. Eventually the Arabs after taking the bait suffered losses in excess of 30%.

No doubt the debtor nations were hoping to repeat the trick this time round. Almost certainly this theft would have been a major factor in their calculation to repay the debt over the next 40 years or so. However this trick is unlikely to be allowed again by creditor nations. Already their answer to the dilemma has emerged with the issue of Wal Marts $1.1 billion dollar Samurai Bonds where the issue is lent and repaid in Yen and NOT US dollars! Politicians in Japan are already calling for no more loans in US dollars but only in Yen. They are expecting the US dollar to fall by 50% against the Yen!

The question is whether creditor countries will protect themselves by following the same approach. This could have serious consequences on the debtor nation's economies especially the UK.

There are reports that a Chinese delegation has recently visited the USA after the US financial condition teeters towards bankruptcy disguised by interventions, lending insanity, insane bond leverage, bogus packaging by Wall Street, corrupted debt rating agencies more fraud and more phony money. Apparently the Chinese are laying the seeds to insist on future US Treasury Bonds to be repaid in Yuan in lieu of US Dollars. The rumored title is Dragon Bonds.

The effect could be catastrophic for the Debtor Nations. Why?

The UK and US among other debtor nations have just taken on astronomical amounts of extra debt on top of their already historically massive debt burden accumulated over the last three decades.

It can safely be assumed that within their calculations to repay their obligations they intended to repeat the inflationary slight of hand. They have also factored in that the current 'recession' will be controlled and the economies will recover...fat chance of that! They also anticipate repeating the trick they played on the Middle East a generation ago but it appears their game has already been rumbled.

So what could be the consequences for us?

The debtor nations will have to borrow from foreigners unless they can generate huge sums from their own population...fat chance of that.

The shysters at the Bank of England have already introduced the historical fraudulent trick of printing unprecedented amounts of fake money unaccompanied by vital economic growth. The effect is always high or hyper inflation accompanied by a collapsing currency.

Dragon bonds are specifically designed to keep this theft in the hands of the perpetrator. Of course, the cronies of this discredited Labor government, at the B. of E. with the full collaboration of our proven corrupt politicians will deliberately keep interest rates artificially low as they did in the 1970's along with high taxation (98%) to extract as much as possible from its population to pay for its negligent practices.

This will not be anywhere near enough to even dent the atronomical debt resulting in the need to pursue capital from abroad. Low interest rates will not be acceptable to foreigners when the UK competes with other debtor nations. It looks like repayment will not be allowed in a collapsing sterling. This will be disastrous for the UK economy along with the US and Europe. There is the alternative of an appreciating pound which would reduce the debts but this seems highly unlikely and is possibly impossible.

Over the last decade I have consistently warned in seminars of the likelihood of either hyper inflation to repay an accumulating debt burden along with a devalued currency. The alternative would be liquidation of the debt by default. It now appears we will probably have a combination of both with Dragon Bonds cutting out the inflationary threat to foreigners which will then necessitate the liquidation of debt as the UK did in the early 20th century with consuls and war bonds.

You may find all this disturbing and find it hard to believe. However, in support the private investors bank Society General are anticipating a world 'global economic collapse' They refer with concern to Japan with its public debt expected to rise to 270% of GDP along with the US public debt of 350% and rising! They see a US dollar slide; global equities falling to new lows; property prices tumbling and oil back to $50. Incidentally the debt burden is already higher than it was after the Second World War. Worryingly today's aging populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth with historically unprecedented public debt looking untenable with the point of no return closing in fast.

However there is no need to despair. There are practical financial solutions to combat this accumulation of banking and political fraud. They will be discussed in our subscribers December 'Where to from Here' This feature will be as important as our October 2007 report and our special seminars that warned of all the horrors of 2008 to March 2009. A bubble was in its later stages at that time and coincidentally the current bubble could now be about to burst in 2010.

EXTRACTS FROM THE OCT 2007 WTFH
(Followed by the 2008 crash)

'There has been a great deal of money lost during 2007 mainly in the credit field. However investors who have held on to stocks have so far been spared any pain but the present nature of the markets could be lining up for an agonising blow to be dealt investors. As for ourselves our main thrust is to affect a great defense rather than go out on a limb at this time. Cash is king with short term excursions into interesting markets such as commodities, gold, natural resources etc

The question is whether we are seeing a repeat of the 2000 trading range followed by a market collapse. This view is supported by the informed buyers not participating in the present market rally.

[washbrook] 11/12/2009 16:47

NAV UPDATE for9.12.09
CYN=186p
NAV=218.58p
DISCOUNT-14.9%

BRWM=532.5p
NAV=632.098
DISCOUNT - 15.9%

[washbrook] 08/12/2009 16:30

NAV UPDATE for 4.12.09-CYN -
NAV 221.35p
SP=191.5p
-13.859% discount.
BRWM-
NAV 646.56
SP=545p
-15.7% discount.
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previous
NAV UPDATE for 2.12.09-CYN -
NAV 225.62p
SP=190
-15.79% discount.
BRWM-
NAV 665.12
SP=542p
-18.5% discount.

[washbrook] 04/12/2009 17:07

NAV UPDATE for 2.12.09-CYN -
NAV 225.62p
SP=190
-15.79% discount.
BRWM-
NAV 665.12
SP=542p
-18.5% discount.
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ALSO UPDATED FOUR COMMODITIED PERFORMANCE.
Blackrock Commodities Income
Blackrock World Mining
City Natural Resources
Golden Prospects
:

[deadly] 03/12/2009 13:40

Amazing buying today - regular several k lots at full offer
Someone's keen.

Time Price Quantity Type Bid Offer Buy/Sell Total Buy Total Sell
03/12/09 16:20 190.0 3,600 L 0.0 0.0 ? 0 0 0
03/12/09 12:53 193.24 2,530 O 190.0 193.25 Buy 145,150 60,952 0
03/12/09 12:41 191.0 5,988 O 190.0 193.5 Sell 142,620 60,952 0
03/12/09 12:41 193.25 4,000 AT 189.5 193.25 Buy 142,620 54,964 0
03/12/09 12:24 193.0 5,000 AT 189.5 193.0 Buy 138,620 54,964 0
03/12/09 12:19 193.0 5,000 AT 189.5 193.0 Buy 133,620 54,964 0
03/12/09 12:18 193.0 10,300 O 190.0 193.25 Buy 155,450 60,952 0
03/12/09 12:17 193.0 5,000 AT 189.5 193.0 Buy 128,620 54,964 0
03/12/09 12:17 192.5 2,200 AT 189.5 192.5 Buy 123,620 54,964 0
03/12/09 12:07 189.6 4,700 O 189.5 192.5 Sell 121,420 54,964 0
03/12/09 11:47 193.0 3,000 O 189.5 193.0 Buy 121,420 50,264 0
03/12/09 11:46 193.0 3,300 O 189.5 193.0 Buy 118,420 50,264 0
03/12/09 11:43 193.0 2,205 O 189.5 193.0 Buy 115,120 50,264 0
03/12/09 11:43 193.0 3,350 O 189.5 193.0 Buy 112,915 50,264 0
03/12/09 11:41 193.0 10,000 O 189.0 193.0 Buy 109,565 50,264 0
03/12/09 11:41 193.0 4,000 O 189.0 193.0 Buy 99,565 50,264 0
03/12/09 11:23 190.0 4,000 O 189.0 193.0 Sell 95,565 50,264 0
03/12/09 11:09 192.5 1,600 AT 189.0 192.5 Buy 95,565 46,264 0
03/12/09 11:09 192.5 2,600 O 189.0 192.5 Buy 93,965 46,264 0
03/12/09 11:05 192.9 2,000 O 189.0 193.0 Buy 91,365 46,264 0
03/12/09 11:03 193.0 2,000 O 188.5 193.0 Buy 89,365 46,264 0
03/12/09 10:40 192.75 11,600 O 188.5 193.0 Buy 87,365 46,264 0
03/12/09 10:40 192.75 7,000 O 188.5 193.0 Buy 75,765 46,264 0
03/12/09 10:35 192.75 4,000 AT 188.5 192.75 Buy 67,765 46,264 0
03/12/09 10:35 192.75 1,000 AT 188.5 192.75 Buy 68,765 46,264 0
03/12/09 10:30 192.5 5,000 AT 188.5 192.5 Buy 63,765 46,264 0
03/12/09 10:07 183.0 10,710 L 0.0 0.0 ? 0 0 0
03/12/09 10:02 189.5 1,000 O 189.0 192.75 Sell 58,765 46,264 0
03/12/09 09:19 189.5 7,500 O 189.0 193.0 Sell 58,765 45,264 0
03/12/09 09:19 192.75 4,000 AT 189.0 192.75 Buy 58,765 37,764 0
03/12/09 09:19 192.75 4,000 AT 189.0 192.75 Buy 54,765 37,764 0
03/12/09 09:17 192.5 5,000 AT 189.0 192.5 Buy 50,765 37,764 0
03/12/09 09:16 192.5 5,000 AT 189.0 192.5 Buy 45,765 37,764 0
03/12/09 09:16 192.5 5,000 AT 189.0 192.5 Buy 40,765 37,764 0
03/12/09 09:15 192.5 5,000 AT 189.0 192.5 Buy 35,765 37,764 0
03/12/09 09:02 189.5 2,764 O 189.0 192.5 Sell 30,765 27,764 0
03/12/09 08:57 190.0 25,000 O 189.0 192.5 Sell 30,765 25,000 0
03/12/09 08:51 192.0 5,000 AT 189.0 192.0 Buy 30,765 0 0
03/12/09 08:42 192.0 5,000 AT 189.0 192.0 Buy 25,765 0 0
03/12/09 08:41 192.0 2,604 O 189.0 192.0 Buy 20,765 0 0
03/12/09 08:30 191.0 5,000 AT 188.0 191.0 Buy 18,161 0 0
03/12/09 08:14 191.0 3,150 O 188.0 191.0 Buy 13,161 0 0
03/12/09 08:04 190.0 5,000 AT 187.5 190.0 Buy 10,011 0 0
03/12/09 08:04 190.0 10,000 O 189.0 192.5 Sell 30,765 37,764 0
03/12/09 08:00 189.9 11 O 187.5 190.0 Buy 5,011 0 0
03/12/09 07:56 190.0 0 O 187.5 190.0 Buy 5,000 0 0
03/12/09 07:56 190.0 5,000 O 187.5 190.0 Buy 5,000 0 0

[washbrook] 03/12/2009 08:47

GOLD HAS MOVED UP 22% since BREAKING $1000 in 58 trading days.
From $1100 to $1220 taking 23 trading days.
With the current momentum could hit $1500-WE SHALL SEE.
Below is an article I found on the net-source:

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Roubini says gold at $2,000 is "utter nonsense". Rogers says "It's clear Mr. Roubini hasn't done his homework, yet again."

One of them, an academic, has but one good career call, the other one, a true investor, well, we are still counting.

Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global economic crisis, said a forecast by investor Jim Rogers that gold will double to at least $2,000 an ounce is "utter nonsense."

There is no inflation or "near-depression" to drive gold prices that high, Roubini said today at the Inside Commodities Conference in New York. If a severe depression came to pass, with investors buying canned goods and hiding out in log cabins, "maybe you want some gold in that scenario," Roubini said.

"Maybe it will reach $1,100 or so but $1,500 or $2,000 is nonsense," Roubini said. (...)

Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today that Roubini is wrong about the threat of bubbles in gold and emerging-markets stocks. The price of gold will double in the next decade, he said.(...)

"It is very hard to justify oil going from $30 to above $80 based only on the fundamentals of supply and demand," Roubini said. Prices are "in part" a bubble, he said.

"What bubble?" Rogers said, when asked if he agreed with Roubini's view. "It's clear Mr. Roubini hasn't done his homework, yet again."

Rogers countered Roubini's arguments by saying that Chinese stocks and sugar, silver, coffee and cotton have all dropped from their historical highs by at least 50 percent.

When asked if gains made this year pointed to a bubble, he said: "It's not a bubble if something is up 100 percent this year, but down 70 percent from its high. That's not a bubble, that's a good year. That's a great year. Maybe it's too high for this year, but that's not a bubble."

"I suspect gold going to go over $2000 some time in the bull market, but depending on what happens in the world it could go much, much higher," Rogers said. "The old high, back in 1980 adjusted for inflation, would be over $2000 now, just to get back to the old high. So we'll certainly get there some time in the next decade."

Rogers agreed with Roubini that the dollar's decline was encouraging investors to buy more commodities and assets. The U.S. currency has dropped 13 percent since the start of March against a trade-weighted basket of currencies.

"Right now, everybody including me is pessimistic on the U.S. dollar," Rogers said. "That usually leads to a rally, whatever the asset is, and I would just suspect it's going to happen again this time.

"How long will it last? I don't know," he said. "It depends on how the world evolves. Somewhere along the line, I expect I'll have to sell the rest of my dollars."

"I don't know any emerging market stock markets that are so high I'd call them a bubble," Rogers said. "They're certainly all up a lot, maybe they're too high, but being too high is not a bubble for anyone who knows financial markets."

In contrast to Roubini, Rogers said the only bubble he sees in the Western world now is in U.S. bonds.

"I cannot conceive of lending money to the U.S. for 30 years," he said. "Other than that, I don't see any bubbles going on, unless he knows something the rest of us don't know."
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[washbrook] 03/12/2009 08:19

AT 8.05am
UK GOLD £730.52
US GOLD $1220.02
Plus Canadian gold/Yen and euro gold at all time highs this morning.

[washbrook] 02/12/2009 07:59

UK GOLD £731.5
US GOLD $1213.6 (breaches 1200 for the first time.)

[washbrook] 01/12/2009 16:56

NAV updates 18.11.09

CYN NAV =216.47p SP=185p Discount -14.53%

BRWM NAV =646.43p SP=540.5p discount -16.384%
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NAV update 27.11.09-
CYN NAV =217.61p--- SP=175p discount -19.58% ( cyn undervalued )
BRWM NAV=641.67p--- SP=536p discount -16.47%

[washbrook] 27/11/2009 14:58

Updated 25.11.09 CYN -16.2% discount to NAV(221.22p-185.25p)
........25.11.09 Blackrock World Mining(brwm) -18.1% discount to NAV(656.13p-537p)

[washbrook] 25/11/2009 22:10

Interesting
% change since 31.12.2007
Blackrock World Mining -17.4%
£GOLD +69.11%
City Natural Resources -2.88%
---------------------------
% change since 31.12.2008
Blackrock World Mining +114.26%
£GOLD +20.4%
City Natural Resources +136.74%

[washbrook] 25/11/2009 09:10

The US DOLLAR index is week.
The Yen & US $ gold made new highs this morning.
watch very carefully at the US/Euro gold ratio.
At 9.13am =1.5048382
This is the fourth attempt this year for the Euro to go higher against the US $
UPDATED 10pm
US/Euro gold ratio.=1.51334

[jonnyboy1] 23/11/2009 11:09

Kiwara taken out. Nice return on that one.

[washbrook] 23/11/2009 11:01

AYLINGD
I put this on a gilt post this morning.
They are talking deflation.
I have pondered deflation?inflation over the last 18 months.
I don't buy the deflation argument but I posted thus''
I remember years back Prechter getting it badly wrong.
The elliot wavers can always adjust there wave counts.
One day , one day we are all right.
But this podcast is very impressive.
Louise Yamanda says- in the US there have been 3 secular bear markets
She expects this one to be deflationary.
I have listened to the broadcast several times and I was impressed with the content.''

[aylingd] 23/11/2009 10:53

Very interesting washbrook.

The argument that the gains in gold are due to dollar weakness may be losing credibility. Plenty of people (including Bill Murphy from GATA) didn't buy that link anyway.

D.

[washbrook] 23/11/2009 07:04

GOLD in currencies 5 countries I monitor posted their (2009 high)
at 7am
$1162(2009 high)
Yen 103297(2009 high)
Aussie $ 1265
Can $ 1237(2009 high)
Euro 779(2009 high)
£703(2009 high)

[washbrook] 21/11/2009 11:30

CYN NET ASSET Value 18.11.09=216.47p
SP=185p
Discount -14.53%
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BRWM net asset value 18.11.09=646.43p
SP=540.5p
discount -16.384%

[dondee] 20/11/2009 14:02

Warren Buffett's company has lined up an $8 billion loan to help pay for its $26.3 billion acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.

[dondee] 20/11/2009 14:02

Warren Buffett's company has lined up an $8 billion loan to help pay for its $26.3 billion acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.

[washbrook] 20/11/2009 05:28

Marc Faber ''I believe that whereas in the past the USD 1000 per ounce level was kind of a resistance level, now it becomes a support level. I don't think that you'll see gold below a USD 1000 per ounce probably ever again.

So I'm actually quite positive. Maybe gold at this level is a better buy than it was at USD 300 per ounce in 2001.''
article here:-

[washbrook] 19/11/2009 22:06

CURRENT PLAY tonight
Share price % up this year

CYN+131.31%
BRWM+110.1%
New City Energy +147.06%
BRCI+46.99%
Geiger Counter +298.53%
Golden Prospects +130.91%
UNIT TRUST
Black Rock Gold & General Accumulation Unit +50.57%
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GILTS
3.5% WAR LOAN -13.26%
Best GILT performance

1.25% Index Linked Gilt 2017 +9.75%

Worst performing Gilt

3.5% Conversion -15.03%
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