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Circle Oil Share Price - COP

Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Circle Oil LSE:COP London Ordinary Share IE00B034YN94 ORD EUR0.01
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.13 +2.50% 5.13 5.00 5.25 5.13 5.00 5.00 1,159,576 08:19:25
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m) RN NRN
Oil & Gas Producers 54.3 -34.6 -6.1 - 29.00

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30/8/201520:24Circle Oil PLC - Oil & Gas E & P5,422
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28/2/201401:09This a safe multibagger238

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swooped: Maybe, but I will watch the oil market very closely Saudi has no intention of cutting production, it understands how hard it is to regain market share after the last time it did that and now with US shale production, the imputus to help the world oil markets as the global scale balancer is not really there. Oil could drop very low indeed and as such places like Oman for COP means little, why spend a load of money trying to prove reserves, when the chances of a strike are against them and the reserves are tumbling in price. Technically, cop has hit the bottom at 9.9p, it can do it again particularly as oil continues its downward spiral, money could indeed be made here but at this time its better in my powder-keg warm and dry than in a small oiler. If the COP share prices goes extremely low AND I believe they have the ability to survive a prolonged low oil price, then yes I would buy back in as a long term investment (3 - 5 years) however, I still continue to ask myself why have the directors have not taken advantage of the situation and that still concerns me.
pendragon2: Looking at the COP share price, my biggest problem is to find a reason for it to stop falling, which I can't at the moment. Baffling how the company could have boxed themselves in to this negative situation.
lr2: Whilst not a chartist myself, I do have a good friend who is and he advised me that the COP share price would trend between 22p and 25.5p for awhile (it has). Once it breaks upwards from that then he expects the next move will quickly take the price to the 29p area. I was told to worry if it breaks below 20p but he did not expect that to be the case.
pendragon2: The core of this discussion is the undervaluation of COP and why the share price has failed to respond to improvements in the business. There are basically three questions. 1. Are management doing a good job, strategically and on a day to day basis? My answer would tend to no. Too much attention to the bonus schemes and not enough to make a clear case about where the business is heading. Operationally, the jury is out as very little has happened until recently. Egypt is a VEGAS project. Morocco is small beer. I don't doubt Green is competent to a degree, but he was a stop gap appointment following the death of David Hough in 2010. His performance leaves much to be desired. The arrival of a new Chairman has underwhelmed. Do they need a COO if Tunisia and Oman are to become technically demanding operational commitments? 2. Is the business sound? Egypt provides income and will continue to do so for another five or six years, before tailing off, though even then it may be a performing asset for a decade to come. That is the good news. Morocco is a small, but welcome project, which I never expect to contribute more than sufficient to cover head office overheads, but that's OK. Profit is profit. Tunisia, Oman may come good, but that has taken far too long to be established. Does the company have any clear goals for E&P looking forward? I'm not sure. We need a clear strategy, rather than sitting and watching the benefits of Egypt frittered away. COP's success in Egypt was partly good luck, as they moved into an existing business at the right time and it quickly came to fruition for little or no outlay. I don't understand why COP needs the $100m credit line, given the income now achieved. Was it simply a precaution following the Arab Spring? If so we should be told. If it is for strategic purposes then it could be a boost to the company, so we should also be told. 3. Are there any unforeseen/overlooked issues holding the share price back. Certainly the Kaupting and Libyan holdings raise a question mark, not of the company's doing. The political uncertainty seems to have been reduced, though the Arab Spring was a major blow to the share price a couple of year back. Are there issues in Morocco we don't know about, following the country manager problem which emerged last year? Do any of these issues compromise the company's standing when bidding for new acreage? -------------------------------- I don't really care about posters identities, (we all have different motives and interests), but I would welcome a thought out discussion addressing the issue of why COP's share price has fallen from 40p to 16p and only recovered to the low twenties and what happens next. Once a discussion is really under way, we can begin to ask what shareholders want - long term growth, an share price spike to offer an exit, a fluctuating share price to enable day trading, dividends, whatever? My own fairly simple view is this: Morocco pays for head office. Egypt pays for e&p in Tunisia and Oman, plus a surplus. The surplus should have a purpose. Does management want a $100m company or a $1000m company? Either is OK. Drifting isn't. If a $100m business, then I want to see a dividend. If a $1000m business, I want to see sustained growth. Thank-you for your attention.
steelwatch: Gerry - from the LSE bb: elland 24 Jul 2015 Share Price I have e. mailed the CFO to confirm this boards general unease about the lack of Director share purchase activity. I advised that in our opinion, this would help support the struggling share price prior to more positive future announcements, assuming that they are not precluded from doing so. elland 10:00 closed period I have received an e. mail this morning from Ms Prior the CFO. She will pass my comments re the share price and lack of Director share purchases, to the rest of the board. She also informed me that currently none are possible as they are in "closed period" while preparing interim results.
swooped: Gerry, Schadenfreude... I don't think so, you should read my posts here, they have been pretty consistent as regards my impression of the company since my first investment in COP in July 2010 thus, I know this company well. I have never taken any pleasure from people loosing money in Circle Oil, in fact the only people I would be happy to see loosing money in COP is the management themselves as it is they that have caused much of this situation, once again DO NOT try and blame the current share price on the crash in oil as I have proved on many occasions even at the height of the oil boom Circle were dropping, they have yet to sort out there own house. As regards trading COP I have also been correct more times than not, that is not to say that this comment is to gloat but to demonstrate the inability of COP to hold onto any rise and again I believe this is down purely and only to the management, are they trying to change, who knows, thus far I have seen little to demonstrate this other that at this point seeing even more on the corporate payroll, when these ignorant individuals put their hands in their pockets and show a concerted and collaborative 'significant' act of faith in the company, only then do I think we may see any rise hold, even a buyout at this point seems to give no substantial benefit to the directors thus show me what incentive they have to do ANYTHING as regards capital appreciation for the shareholder the only thing that benefits the management at this point is to keep the company ticking over and paying their rather inflated salaries. IMO the share price will drop further in line with the oil price crash and a new low made today, with the release of Green, his immediate sale of options, which for me has been one of the most significant events for COP for a long long time means at this time I see COP only as a trading share, it will take a meaningful change for me to be an 'investor' again.
swooped: LOL 'nicked from Serica' LOLOLOL 'nicked' Investors at Serica will be rejoicing today, Mitch did f all at Serica and as it COO did even less. He was at serica since 2006, a peiod that coincidently the share price started to fall, in 2012 when Mitch joined the board, the share price experienced it's greatest share price fall (all just coincidence no doubt), however the fall continued even at a time when the oil price was at its height. During his tenure Serica gave up its only 1 producing asset and has stagnated for years unable to get a transport route for its North Sea assets..... Mitch, what an asset NOT, the irony is when I saw the Serica RNS and rejoinced, I didn't for a minute think he would end up here as the new CEO...
boozey: Circle's share price dropped yesterday despite on the face of it a positive update and an improving oil price. It was issued by Jenkins and not the Prof and that point was not lost on me as the content was not in line with the historic Chris Green communications. Has the Prof been misleading investors all this time and it has been his lack of credibility that forced the share price down and saw his demise as CEO? AS Jenkins says the share price should not be so low given the cushion we have of Morocco gas sales. - We were told the Tunisian well would be paid for by cash, but wait the prof has spent $45 Million of reserve based lending and we still have cash in the bank of $34M. This is new news. And how much did Tunisia really cost? - We were told by the Prof new finds in Morocco would be used to increase production, but wait Jenkins now says we need to replenish depleted reserves. This is new news. - Tunisia was supposed to begin a farmout process in November but wait, guess what, the license has not been renewed yet. Serious investors and followers must have read yesterday's RNS with dismay and wondered what game the Prof has been playing for the last few years - seems a few of them bailed out on the back of it the way the price fell. I must admit the thought crossed my mind too. Enough said. Things can only get better can't they? We need the new CEO in situ asap. I'd give it to Antony Maris, the non-exec of COP and COO of Soco the FTSE 250 company. He has been there 10 years and the company has always been progressive, returned shedloads of cash to shareholders over the past 2 years, is sound financially and has a break even point of $20 a barrel. We need a CEO who can embrace, manage and give confidence to the the City, who provides good PR and governance, and who more than anything else is credible and buys some shares in Circle to have real skin in the game (he has a significant number of Soco shares) - these are key attributes Chris Green never had. Circle is probably of just about sufficient size to interest him. I am sure the activists will have their view - I hope Maris is on their list.
boozey: I have sold right down today for better or worse so this will be my last post - some people will be pleased about that given the company has knocked any positive spirit out of me! My take given years of investment here: - Oman: Branch 49 commitment well was doubtless linked to new acreage. Otherwise why drill it. The cost overrun plus the fact Circle has never driven its license commitments probably made the relationship with the Omani authorities untenable. Whatever the reality Oman was the great white hope. - The company is monitoring its commitments in Tunisia. What does this mean? Will they ditch Mahdia too? - The cost over-run on 49 and Mahdia combined with the lower oil price has stretched the company's resources to the limit. Moral is that a small oiler can never go alone such projects. The Prof's cavalier approach has come home to roost. - Note that in the results there was no thanking the Prof for his work unlike the thanks to the Omani COP subsidiary employees. A significant omission not for no reason. Susan Prior has been sweeping up after him. - The reference to funding in the results sends out alarm bells. In a best case scenario (save a takeover) the share price won't progress until the finances of the company are clarified. In the current climate any funding will have be be at a heavy discount to the current share price. - The results which must have been worse than any of us could have expected explain the issue of recruiting a CEO of substance. No one credible would want to touch the company with a barge pole given the possible implications for professional reputation. Flegg having no reputation to protect has been brought in as a figurehead. To many he is a sacrificial lamb. From his perspective he probably feels he has nothing to lose. No one expects him to succeed so any positives will enhance his own reputation. - Morocco and Egypt produce cashflow to stop the company from going under. They may protect the status quo for a couple of years. But with Oman gone, Tunisia in a hiatus, it is difficult to see what the company can do strategically as a next step except sell these assets at a discount to an interested party at perhaps a small upside to where we are now. In the final analysis a good geologist as the Prof is was found terribly wanting in a CEO role and in hindsight the results we saw today had a certain inevitability about them. Good luck to all who hang around.
playthebull: Article in the Fool today "Turning to the smaller oilies, we see the £35m Circle Oil (LSE: COP) in a similar position, with its share price heading further down recently, to bring in a 65% fall over the past 12 months to just 6.2p. Forecasts suggest that Circle will be close to break-even in 2016, so again we’re looking at a similar liquidity question. At year-end in December (not reported until June), Circle told us of total revenues of $85m, down 9% due to falling oil prices, though the firm had available cash of $34.5m — although net debt was up to $59.2m by the end of May 2015. But with a four-year reserve-based debt facility having been agreed only in March 2014, which could provide up to $100m, and with Circle enjoying relatively low production costs in Egypt, I see no imminent danger."

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O 4,921 5.08 28 Aug 2015 16:28:06 GBX

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