Circle Oil Share Discussion Threads

[learning curve] 25/5/2016 10:07

Some strength behind the scenes on the share price it would appear - can sell 1.1m @ 58.1 and over 3m @ 55.5. Cant buy any quantity via live quotes.

[marunam2] 25/5/2016 09:57

POO trading above $49.

$5 per barrel cost.

As I understand it : IFC share of the initial $100m RBL is $50m, the other $50 was from a syndicated loan.
The debt is also shared by other banks , so it's not all IFC or another bank only.
Therefore say half the loan is from IFC,the other half from the syndicate.
IFC are not going to force the issue over $25 or so as they are interested in developing infrastructure and creating jobs.
This loan applies to all the areas of operations of COP.

[diku] 24/5/2016 14:14

Did all you guys miss the trick here....it was starring at you all the time!....the symbol of the company with a big ZERO!!!....

[learning curve] 24/5/2016 12:15

Prelims were out 1 June last year ... expect similar this year.

[marunam2] 24/5/2016 11:01

Good study and very informative.



I agree, this is part of the World development ~Bank, they have invested mainly in distressed countries and industries and are strong on providing assistance to less developed countries and their infrastructure. So they are used to dealing with these situations everywhere they invest.
Every case is different.

I suspect we will start to see some movement up imo on the share price in the next few days, this has been a leaky ship and they won't be the only ones getting a larger amount than usual.

[learning curve] 24/5/2016 10:08

This is well worth a read on the process and considerations around redetermination. I remain of the view that, given IFC is part of the World Bank, an appropriate solution will be found:


hxxp://uk.practicallaw.com/w-000-7741

[marunam2] 23/5/2016 15:05

We are averaging 8000bopd per day from NW Gamsa, of that 3600bopd is COP's , we only recently finished a 2 production well drill and both came in at good rates , but produced at a lower rate to optimise extraction.

These drills cost money , money which is for a long time now.

Even BP and Shell have stopped working on projects to force the repayment, now set for by June end and the rest to be paid by year end.
We need our money now and that is why they have used these honest rns's.

Not over here if the repayment is a large chunk, will know in a couple of days how much has been paid.
I Then expect another a repayment waiver of a month till June end.

[diku] 23/5/2016 13:48

What chance this trades below 0p soon?...over the years insiders taken any bonuses?....

[learning curve] 23/5/2016 13:00

I've been buying over the last 2 days. Would be surprised if IFC didn't play ball somewhat and work with COP to find a solution here. The key phrase for me was 'little [or no] value' for shareholders ... that statement was made when the share price was c 400% higher than it is now. so clearly there are offers on the table that would deliver a modicom of value to holders.

Feel truly sorry for existing holders who have been stung big time, partly by circumstance and partly by inept previous management. But the current share price has armageddon built into it ...so I, and it seems others, have been buying.

[gerry hatrick] 23/5/2016 12:36

Yes Marunam I tend to believe something like this, because it was only recently we were only looking at a small shortfall in funding.
If EGPC paid up this I am sure would have bridged the gap and with the low extraction costs in Egypt and the good price of gas in Morrocco the future profitability would improve as the POO went up.
For better or worse, with the value of my shares now is only 4% of what I paid for them, I will hold on to the bitter end BUT I expect a deal to be done and share price Angel may well be right.

Well that's my hope :)

[marunam2] 23/5/2016 12:15

This was from the 13th of May.

Further to the announcement of 15 April 2016, Circle Oil plc (AIM:COP) the international oil and gas exploration, development and production company, is pleased to announce that International Finance Corporation ("IFC") has agreed to extend the suspension of the December 2015 redetermination and any repayments due under its Reserve Based Lending ("RBL") facility until 27 May 2016. IFC has indicated its willingness to consider further waivers as may be required to continue the Strategic Review process based on circumstances applying at the time of any application.

In addition, the Company has continued to focus on achieving an improvement in the regularity and quantum of US dollar payments from EGPC which now, alongside extracting US dollars from its Moroccan operations, is required to both satisfy its obligations to its creditors and fund operations. The Company expects to receive an improved payment from EGPC for the month of May compared to previous months, however the Company's cash flows and financial position remain under significant pressure and a sustained improvement in payments from EGPC is required.

That is why I am hopeful that this last rns was engineered to force the issue one way or the other.

Are the lenders going to force the issue , I don't believe they will , that would be financial suicide in the low POO and oil assets currently.

Suspect that is why you are seeing somebody hoovering up all the small sellers at a pittance.

[goldieshotz] 21/5/2016 22:58

Add Rockhopper Exploration to your list of suitors, but they'll want the assets not the debt.

[deepwildcatter] 21/5/2016 21:36

5. Vegas (was operator of NWG, sold 50% to Zhenhua for about $300m, but could buy back 40% plus Morocco and Tunisia for less than $10m).

[deepwildcatter] 21/5/2016 21:30

Gerry - we are thinking in the same way. Following the RNS the share priced dropped, but clearly someone had pre-set a large buy at about 0.5p.
I am guessing that someone is building a % interest in COP to control who the ultimate "saviour" will be.
Four guesses:
1. SDX Energy (Partner in NWG)
2. Transglobe (Looking to expand onshore oil in Egypt)
3. Zhenhua Oil (Partner in NWG)
4. KNOC (Dana Petroleum) (Neighbour to NWG and in unitisation discussions for years)

[gerry hatrick] 21/5/2016 13:33

In the cold light of day, following that devastating RNS, I question why it was decided to tell the world that the shares are valueless, yet still have the shares being traded, with many selling out at serious losses, whilst at the same time many bottom fishers buying in?
Surely if the company is insolvent then it should go into administration ?
Still not great for holders but much more honest, I suspect there may be some underhand deals going on here or am I being paranoid.
I still cannot see how we went from having 'a small funding shortfall' back in December at a time when oil was at $29, to todays capitulation with the oil at $49 ?
I know debt is the issue but surely going forward the company could become much more profitable and able to service the debt repayments and not forgetting the 'jewel in the crown' Mahdia ?

[marunam2] 21/5/2016 13:30

Nothing's changed in value till it's sold , if the lenders agree to re structure the debt then we are back to where we were.
little or no value of assest's sold in this poo climate anyway.

I agree with Angel re lenders role. I suspect this is to force the hand that feeds it, IFC, and the hand the owes it the most, EPGM.

If an IOC goes down because of non payment it is not at all good for a sovereign state trying to build a massive oil industry to default on payments causing companies to go to the wall. There will be no trust and all over some $20 to $30m.
They did say they were waiting to see the size of the payment , and this can't state a case more bluntly this this.

If we are paid $20m or so this month and next , then ????

[steelwatch] 21/5/2016 12:46

jotaha - not me. Malcy's words.

[jotoha2] 21/5/2016 12:40

Steelwatch , you say all may not be lost , the company however is being very honest and upfront , and they are saying "it is likely that there will be little or no value attributed to Circle Oil PLC equity holders ."

I would expect a nice deal to be made with boys from the middle east , but no joy for holders.

[greatfull dead] 21/5/2016 11:15

management screwed us PI.