Cloudified Share Discussion Threads

[melodrama] 21/12/2015 11:17

Thanks guys, knew it was high! LOL great incentive for them to cough up

[debbiegee] 21/12/2015 11:05

Think DQ said in presentation costs so far were 60m ?

[pb01] 21/12/2015 10:51

That's a serious interest bill.

Or put in to another way interest per year is 100 p / share or 8 pence per share per month.

Ouch !

[daddy warbucks] 21/12/2015 10:46

At an average 12% for the last three years since the claim was submitted and accepted (26/12/12) on $1.3 billion, the interest a year is $156 million a year.Let's round it up to half a billion dollars by June next year!

[pb01] 21/12/2015 10:31

Indonesia's interest rate for the last few years:-

2011 12.4%
2012 11.8%
2013 11.7%
2014 12.6%




Probably explains why the arbitration value is not 650 pence but closer to 720 pence as stated in DQ's presentation. This will be a combination of interest and refunded legal costs.

[melodrama] 21/12/2015 10:20

Interest is racking up every day for the Indo's , at quite a nice rate for us from memory.

[baxter99] 21/12/2015 10:19

And a very blue 2016 to follow (probably)

[carlo sartori] 21/12/2015 10:11

Looks like a blue Christmas!

[debbiegee] 18/12/2015 23:42

Yes they did try talking to ROI right at the beginning but you make a valid point if we win this round what would be the point of compromising with negotiations ?

I really thought that because the forgery case was such an obvious sham it would never get to court and that perhaps a settlement could have been negotiated before.

I had also thought once all the cards were on the court table if it became obvious who was going to win ROI might scramble to make an OOC before the decision is announced.
That is still a possibillty ?
It would now cost them more than before the case was heard though.

Hey Ho whichever way we are still here but waiting a little longer for more.

WE HOPE.

[baxter99] 18/12/2015 21:29

(a couple of typos but i'm sure you get the gist)

[baxter99] 18/12/2015 21:24

Idle rambling after watching DQ's presentation in full (now in the header).

The current claim is for $1.315b compensation (881GBP - equivalent £6.43 per share) which is fixed unless challanged by the Indonesians. If they do challenge then this can be "revisited". DQ admitted "we internally thought that value quite small" adding "our own internal working suggested it was well north of the $2b dollar MPV". So, by challenging, the Indonesians risk an even larger claim.

Assuming CHL win the licence validity, an Indonesian challenge risks a significantly larger claim. Well north of of $2b is about double the current claim - i.e. around £13 per share. Assuming a typical OOC settlement of one third claim value, that is still the best part of £4 per share.

Having been in dispute for several years, CHL may not want an OOC settlement and could go for the full amount. Who would not be willing to wait an extra year or two for three times the amount of an OOC settlement?

[debbiegee] 18/12/2015 19:02

Good job PB01 Im sure many are grateful :-)))))

Nice find someuwin !

[someuwin] 18/12/2015 18:47

EK...

"I paid 18.2p for Churchill Mining (CHL). Here, I am told that Indonesia will be asked by the Court to cough up perhaps £250m. Further, the fiddler in the Indonesian administration system has backed off. For some extraordinary reason all this will take at least another six months..."

[pb01] 18/12/2015 18:11

I wont give up my day job. lol

[debbiegee] 18/12/2015 17:28

Many thanks to our Christmas Elf for updating the header for us !!!

[coley15] 18/12/2015 14:35

kiss of death love it ;o)

[love it] 18/12/2015 12:27

Looks like it's going into the 20's soon

[coley15] 18/12/2015 12:15

little santa rally for CHL ?

[rettah] 18/12/2015 11:39

Here's the link:
hxxp://www.churchillmining.com/news/view/128/30-million-tonnes-per-annum-east-kutai-coal-project-feasibility-study-returns-pretax-npv-of-us18-bil/

[debbiegee] 18/12/2015 11:07

Thanks rettah very intersting.
I think 1 of the points is also they had only excavate part of the project ?
I think a link to the feasabiliity study would also be good for the header ?

[rettah] 18/12/2015 10:58

This was from the feasibility study in sept 2010 and gives a NPV which is higher than the recent valuation of $1.35B but highlights the price of coal that was assumed:

The investment evaluation for the Project gives a pre-tax net present value of US$1,829 Million (assuming a discount rate of 10%), internal rate of return of 21% and payback period of 7 years. Revenue calculations were based on market analysis for Indonesian sub-bituminous coal, which determined an average long-term coal price of US$46.60 per tonne.

[pb01] 18/12/2015 10:45

Debbie - can you put a link to the video in the header? Its a good document to refer back too.

[love it] 18/12/2015 10:44

60k at 18.84p another premium interesting !