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Real-Time news about Chromex (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|kenmitch: Almost no premium?
The warrants are now at a discount and very cheap IF there is anything behind the share price rise today.
Warrant price with zero premium (exercise price is 20p) with the share price at 33p would be 13p. At the selling price of 30p the warrants would be 10p to sell with a zero premium.
Horrible spread and likely to be difficult to sell if there is no bid.
I hold in hope - and a bit more optimistic today, if the share price tick up and bit of buying is significant.
A bid at 40p and an offer to warrant holders of 20p would be good. Anything even better would be a real bonus.
Most likely? No bid knowing my luck in bid situations like this!|
|kenmitch: Interesting post Saucepan and I agree with all of it. If bid talks are ongoing then this is a buying opportunity but it's guesswork.
The warrants used to be easier to trade - I bought and sold them in the past around or even occasionally inside the quoted price.
6p is a crazy sell price with the shares where they are. Unless desperate for the money there's no point selling at that price imo as even if news is leaking of no bid, there is still time for the warrants to have a decent run. Also though a failed bid is not yet in the share price the warrants are so cheap technically that they might not fall much even if the shares drop to around 20p.|
|kenmitch: Good point, but I was only suggesting that if confident of a bid. Otherwise I agree, the shares could do well in time anyway, but possibly not before the warrants expire - and possibly worthless. So the shares are far the more sensible bet for those looking beyond a bid. The share price is suggesting no bid and has done for some time despite ill informed posts here suggesting the opposite. If there isn't a bid that could be a good time to buy the shares again since there must be a high chance of the shares going lower on news that bid talks have ended.
If they haven't - if only we knew - then the odd sells today could make your 10k buy today spot on. Good luck with it.|
|kenmitch: 40000 warrants sold at 6p when the quoted price was 9p. Now the spread is a still awful 6p to 10p. Seems a bit strange selling so far below the quoted price and it is such a small sale that it is hard to see it being anyone with any inside knowledge!
I still hold the warrants as it's worth the gamble that there is still a slight chance of a bid at 35p. That should mean warrant holders being offered at least 15p to give 50% upside from the current buying price.
The share price performance is either telling us that everyone involved in a potential bid is doing very well ensuring no news is leakiing, or more likely that there is no news to leak and there won't be a bid at any price.
Any who disagree with that will get more upside buying the warrants than the shares - though be prepared to lose the entire stake if the share price is 20p or lower when the warrants expire in September next year. Still a chance that even without a bid that the shares could do well on other good news over the next year or so.|
|kenmitch: Usually if the market expects a higher offer the share price rises above the current bid price. The fact that it is still well below means the market is not expecting a higher bid. Fortunately that doesn't mean there won't be a higher bid or several bidders eventually. Agree with sailing john that these things usually take months rather than weeks. Then there is news one way or the other sometimes out of the blue and sometimes well forecast by the share price just ahead of any news if it is leaking out.
A shame that the spread is so awful on the warrants as a bid at 35p is already almost priced in to the 14p buying price but not the 9p selling price. So no point buying the warrants imo unless confident of a bid higher than 35p but well worth holding as the uplift from the current 9p sell price would be very good. Fingers crossed for good news eventually as otherwise the downside for the warrants could be high.|
|saucepan: I think there could be a big difference in the share price this time next year, which is probably a minimum time horizon for anyone investing in CHX at this stage. There is definitely intrinsic value here. As the Company points out:
"Independent analysts continue to value Stellite alone at more than the Company's
market capitalisation, so that Mecklenburg is wholly discounted in the current
|sailing john: Moosh - The way to think about it is this - extreme example
If the shares were trading at 20p and you wanted 1m shares would you rather pay £200k to hold shares or have some free warrants. Of couse you would have free warrants as no downside risk to you and the same would apply if shares were 19p even though your warrant starts of at -1p it is not money you have to stump up. In the real world they are obviously not free. Even at 20p or less the warrants have a value because of the leverage you get but it might only be 3 or 4p. It is simply a measure of downside risk vs upside potential If the share price goes well above the warrant exercise price then the leverage starts to disappear and the differential between warrant price + exercise price and the actual share price starts to disappear.
Hope that makes sense
You must be looking for problems that aren't there.
It is just simple arithmetic and nowt else.
To work out the value of the warrant simply deduct 20p from the share price and the resulting figure gives you the "correct" warrant price.
e.g share price 25p. Deduct 20p. Warrant is worth 5p
e.g share price 50p. Deduct 20p. Warrant is worth 30p.
e.g share price £2 - dream on! - deduct 20p. Warrant price £1.80.
I can't explain it any better than that.
The only other thing to work out - again obvious
Share price 19p - deduct 20p and the answer is minus 1 and if that is the share price at expiry time then the warrant will expire worthless.
All warrants have a final exercise date - the longest Raven Russia warrants out to 2019, and of course an exercise price.
For Chromex it is 20p exercise price and expiry on 7th September 2011.|
|kenmitch: Bo Doodak
I can understand why you think that, but I haven't posted for those reasons.
I'm not looking to exit yet as there is a chance that this time the share price rise might be sustained, and having held the warrants for several years - at a loss most of the time - why exit now when at last the chances of the share price gains continuing seem a bit greater than when that has happened in the past.
There's also been a post on the ADVFN warrant thread saying "buy" Chromex warrants and I posted there too to agree, but also pointed out that the shares have often risen only to fall back again.
Also if posting for the reason you said I would NOT have bothered to do the post explaining things (unsuccessfully!) for moosh2.
You'll have to take my word for it, but I've been posting for years and have never tried to take advantage in the way you suggest for my own benefit.
What I will be watching is if the shares and warrants rise further but then the shares start falling back yet again THEN I might well get out.
EDIT. Forgot to say that Chromex tends to ignore big market moves in both directions! Look how it did nothing while the market was soaring in 2009 so I doubt it to go up or down much now either on good or bad days generally.|
|kenmitch: No-one has mentioned the warrants - I've held them for ages,and they've done nothing for ages.
Exercise price is 20p and expiry in September next year.
Shares are now 26p to buy and the warrant is 8p to buy.
So those of you targeting that 45p share price would then see a warrant selling price around 25p.
50p for the shares would give a warrant price of 30p.
20p or less for the shares this time next year and the warrants would expire worthless.
Any buying today at 8p will need the shares at 29p or more to sell to be sure of a profit, assuming the warrants can then be sold for 9p.
They are not traded much.
You probably have to sign a risk form before being able to trade them - but the only risks are losing your stake IF the shares finish 20p or under, but you can sell them any time between now and then just like the shares.
The other negatives are a wide spread and it is not always easy to sell large stakes.
But for anyone who thinks the shares are going up the warrants are at a very good price.
Code is CHXW.
A few buys might well lift the buying price as few trade these warrants.
I'm not buying any more because I've lost count the number of times there have been these share price rises and so far they have never lasted. Will it really be different this time?|
Chromex share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange