-3x Short China Discussion Threads

[boadicea] 17/3/2011 19:10

roundup - Agreed, battery technology has also improved.
Incidentally, a faulty cell doesn't flatten the whole battery. If shorted it will normally cause output voltage to drop to ~10v instead of ~12v and likely increase internal resistance. If it goes o/c the charge in the other cells becomes totally inaccessible so it will appear 'flat'.

However, lead acid batteries deteriorate faster when not fully charged and the ability of an alternator quickly to restore a fully charged state does much to lengthen battery life as well as enabling ailing batteries to perform adequately for longer.

One of the most common causes of a flat battery is a courtesy/glove box/boot light continuously on due to a faulty detector or microswitch.

[crawford] 17/3/2011 15:12

Small top up here, we can't be far of the bottom now.

[roundup] 17/3/2011 08:54

boadicea; The alternator won't prevent the battery going flat over night due to a faulty sell. Batteries have definitely improved greatly from what they used to be.

[boadicea] 16/3/2011 15:27

crawford - Much of it is down to the efficiency of alternators to keep the charge topped up. In the days of the old style dynamo 4 years was a good battery life - and required a top-up with D-water several times a year.
Some things do get better.

[crawford] 16/3/2011 14:54

boadicea,
yes, funny, my current car is 8 years old and still running on the original battery.

[rajauk] 16/3/2011 14:48

With the 4G roll out I am sure alot of batteries will be needed to put up the new masts. One thing I do know is CHNS is trading at a price, which I consider extremely cheap. This is a company that pays dividend although not massive yield at current prices its just over 2%. Has no debt and is probably trading on on on a historic PE of less then 4 on 2010 earnings.

The company seriously needs to consider listing on HK exchange, I am sure this anomily won't last there for long.

[boadicea] 16/3/2011 14:48

Steg - I don't think it's an entirely fixed function.
I have also seen 3 and 4 years mentioned. I think it depends on the frequency and depth of charge/discharge cycling. The failure mode is soft in a multicell arrangement with fault-cell-isolate and there is also the reliability spec of the installation to factor in. I was slightly surprised to see figures of 3-5 years quoted but that could be due to many remote locations with daylight pv charging rather than use only as mains back-up.
I am amazed at the life of good lead-acid batteries when kept well charged. One of our cars is 11 years old and still has its original battery which has never failed to start it - and completely maintenance free.

[stegrego] 16/3/2011 13:13

Whats the replacement cycle on the batteries already in place? I seem to recall a figure of 5 years being mentioned before?

[edmundshaw] 16/3/2011 12:57

Maybe. But I'm not sure how much of the capex is battery powered.

OTOH, some of the older batteries must be getting close to replacement. A lack of more masts is not the end of battery requirements by any means.

[rajauk] 16/3/2011 12:36

China mobile to increase capital spending should be good news for chinashoto.

[crawford] 16/3/2011 09:53

Looks like a head and shoulders has played out on the chart; if that's the case then this is a good buy point, give or take a few pence.

[boadicea] 15/3/2011 18:17

I was referring mainly to the failure to balance the budget over the economic cycle. They were running a deficit throughout the 2003-07 boom years when substantial surpluses should have been the order of the day and they continually promised more of the undeliverable based on money they hadn't got.

I don't disagree with most of your other points in relation to control freakery etc. I might add H&S lunacy to the list.
As far as the banks were concerned, they should have been allowed to fail as institutions with a limited bail-out for their retail customers. RBS, HBoS would no longer exist. HSBC and perhaps Barclays (and certainly Standard Chartered but they hardly operate in UK although a British Co.) could have survived. Lloyds was coerced into committing suicide.

Then we wouldn't still have all that debt around our necks - it would have been largely written off as unrecoverable. Instead, they want to recover it from the population in general. Brown's legacy really makes Norman Lamont look like a genius.

[joe say] 15/3/2011 15:01

you forgot a war !

[yump] 15/3/2011 14:21

fwiw I don't think our financial problems can be laid at the feet of the previous government, for the simple reason that successive governments have done nothing to reduce the risks of the various bank investment arms and their possible effect on our finances. This government is also doing nothing in that respect and I suspect the 'bank tax' stuff is a diversion from actually forcing the banks to change the level of risk the UK is exposed to.

Short of an uprising by the people against the (ruling financial powers), it ain't going to happen anytime soon.

PS
Quite happy to lay blame for a load of other stuff on Labour though... control freakery over local issues, form filling, target setting, paperwork time wasting in NHS, schools, auditing everything, encouraging a nation of pen-pushing, taking advice from business people who want to run public services as businesses with mission statements and think vocational people are motivated by money etc. etc.

[boadicea] 15/3/2011 12:52

crawford - Parallel thinking! Aggreko was the very next stock that I looked at after CHNS.

The market will be in indiscriminate mode for some days, with recent 'hot' stocks worst hit. After that, the survivors and gainers will gradually become clear.
As a general effect, I don't see it being particularly bad for the UK economy, but it's a great pity the last government didn't leave us in a position to take full advantage of recovery opportunities.

[crawford] 15/3/2011 11:55

boadicea,
agreed, this is one stock that I would have thought would have been in demand.

Like Aggreko.

[boadicea] 15/3/2011 11:53

Predictably, CHNS is being hammered today like many others.
However, one thing that can be guaranteed as a result of power cuts in Japan, which may continue for a long time, is that there will be an astronomic demand for emergency/stand-by power storage to keep electronics working.
CHNS should be in a position to satisfy some of this demand.
Logically, margins will also be boosted by the shortfall of supply.

[martylangan] 10/3/2011 10:12

...or mention of a final dividend which looks imho a massive possibility considering recent trading updates.

[evaluate] 10/3/2011 08:20

Only 7 weeks to wait for results.

Positive outlook statement should see these fly.

[fegga] 09/3/2011 17:51

i get the feeling that someones building a position here - regular buys of 3000 over the last couple of weeks with little selling. same again to day - except they've upped the volume a bit.

[martylangan] 01/3/2011 23:06

Thank you Mattjos.

[mattjos] 01/3/2011 15:00

providing their price rathet is in place i beleive it +'ly affects earnings as raw material is purchased forward of unit sales.
The recycler should enmable them to better control their input costs relative to peers without same facility ... it may not have an immediate effect but it will help ensure Shoto can stay competitive on pricing. Manufacturers without in-house recycling facilities are going to be significantly disadvantaged going forward, imo.
It will be interesting to see if Shoto expan the recycling facility to a capacity in excess of their immediate needs and therefore turn it into a standalone profit centre or, if they keep its capacity as only for their needs. I'm assuming some experience of the operation, logistics & metrics will be neeeded before making that decision.
The more immeduate short term benefit is likely to be associated tax advantages from a 'green' operation & marketing benefits.

[martylangan] 01/3/2011 13:51

Will that benefit CHNS with the recycling facility?