Creo Medical Share Discussion Threads

[mikeelkin] 05/7/2010 20:29

Thanks longsight - will do.

[longsight] 05/7/2010 13:31

mike - go the TCT website & you will find it there under one of the tabs. I'd appreciate your feedback on it!

[mikeelkin] 05/7/2010 13:24

Can anybody let me know where I can get hold of a copy of the JP Morgan report?

[flip101] 05/7/2010 10:10

Significant volume traded at 1.60. Not ideal but at least volume is ticking up.

[longsight] 05/7/2010 10:04

I believe there are a further 2 brokers's notes out imminently.

The JP Morgan note seems to me very conservative but nonetheless still has a SGD2 target.

[kimboy2] 05/7/2010 09:52

Assets in RMB and borrowings in dollars looks handy. There was a bit more trade today on the SGX as well.

[longsight] 05/7/2010 09:33

TCT also have a trading update with the new Portfolio valuation with news of various lease renewals & some new tenants.

Substituting the latest valuation of the Property portfolio into the Pro Forma Balance Sheet in the listing doc gives a net asset value of SGD1016.19m, sing todays exchange rate of RMB4.865:RMB [assuming other BS values unchanged] i.e. NAV of SGD4.23 per share which values the current share price at 62% disc to NAV.

My view is that it appears that if management can get rentals up by 2012 /3 so that yield is 6% on the current share price i.e. 10c a share then the shares will trade close to NAV. I believe that there is also an excellent chance that NAV might be a lot higher by then given the development programme & the growth in commercial real setate values suggested in the JP Morgan report.

[longsight] 05/7/2010 08:52

I have only had a cursory glance at the JP Morgan note but it appears to give a 70% weighting to discounted dividend income & only 30% to assets. Nonetheless, the Report contains some major positives in terms of prospective rents from renewals over the next 3 years, in particular on the Parkson lease, & also suggests the possible potential for "private equity-like returns over the next 3 to 5 years".

TCT also have the latest portfolio valuation for 30 June out today. Portfolio value of RMB9.42bn up 6.64% from 1 year previously.

[kimboy2] 05/7/2010 08:14

That is an equivalent price of 467p.

[mikeelkin] 05/7/2010 08:13

Thanks Flip and longsight. At last. on the face of it 2SGD does not sound very ambitious given current discounts to NAV but I guess it is 25% north of the current price and anything too great might not be seen as credible.

[flip101] 05/7/2010 08:08

JPM issued their note today. They've slapped a 2 SGD target on it.

[longsight] 04/7/2010 19:04

Mike - I think there shd be some stock available. Mine has been available since Wednesday 10 days ago. My feeling is that no one wants to sell at these prices yet also there aren't any buyers as yet. Given the quality of the potfolio, the discount to NAV & the yield on this lo SP, & the imminent arrival of brokers's notes, I will be amazed if volumes & interest don't pick up over the next month.

[mikeelkin] 04/7/2010 15:00

The lack of trades in the second half of the previous week was very disappointing. After the brief flurry on Tuesday it seemed that volume might start to build. My stock with TDW is still not available although they said they hope it will actually be there next week.

Presumably the JP Morgan note and possibly some others will be out next week? I find it difficult to gauge what sort of impact these will have. Does anybody else see them as finally acting as some sort of catalyst? What I find surprising is why, with the sort of discount this is to NAV compared to peers, that some sort of buying even in small volumes has not taken place.
Or is there just no stock available - as Kimboy2 found - is that the real problem?

All in all very frustrating.

Mike Elkin

[kimboy2] 30/6/2010 08:30

I haver tried to buy 5,000 and 2,000 LG2U above the market price and failed. I don't think that they have any stock.

No sign yet of mine appearing on my TDW account.

[longsight] 30/6/2010 07:31

Mattjos, I believe the code is SGX:LG2U but ADVFN monitor doesn't recognise it

[mattjos] 29/6/2010 22:49

is there a ticker to use on L2 now for this?

[longsight] 29/6/2010 10:47

Flip - it is good that no sellers succumbed to the capitualtion prices quoted yesterday. This shd be the beginning of some interest in the stock & the start of the move up. I am transferring half of my holding of 150,000 to my wife as a long term investment. HK office rentals are 4 times those in Shanghai. If Shanghai commercial rentals close the gap on those in HK over the next 10 years then I can see NAV climbing to SG$20 by then. In the meantime my wife will get a fabulous yield on the original investment price of the shares.

[flip101] 29/6/2010 09:57

We're up today! On a bit of volume.

[kramch] 28/6/2010 10:48

I have been looking for the share price and found Treasury China Trust on IG Index under Singapore shares. Graph shows the shares rising 140 > 170 on 24th & falling back to 135 today, a bit disappointing.
Can anyone get the share price graph onto the header (beyond my technical abilities). K.

[longsight] 28/6/2010 10:29

Flip - the points I made above in my previous posts are, I believe, really significant mid to long term bull arguments which make a compelling case to remain invested here. In effect we are receiving a yield of almost 6% to hold shares in an investment trust in PRC priced at less than 45% of a conservative NAV valuation. I believe, for the reasons I gave before i.e. the retail growth & financial services growth in Shanghai as well as the refurb & developments, that the TCT portfolio is a fantastic capital & rental growth story.

The launch in Singapore has been a complete fiasco but the share price there is suffering from short term lack of interest. We know that it is absolutely in the Directors's interests, in view of their big shareholdings, to get the message across. It is a great message & I believe that they wouldn't go to the trouble & expense of listing in Singapore unless they were committed to getting that message across. I'm sure it will happen.

[flip101] 28/6/2010 10:03

Thanks longsight.

[longsight] 28/6/2010 09:50

Flip, I spoke to Sarah at Treasury Holdings. There are 3 brokers's notes due out in the next week or so. I believe they will probably be posted on the website. I also think there might be a couple of announcements imminent. New portfolio values must be out soon.

[flip101] 28/6/2010 09:20

Well this is fun.

[longsight] 27/6/2010 17:31

Flip, since JPM were involved in the listing, I can not believe that they will happily accept the current situation. I'm sure they will get their "ass" into gear & make sure that insitutional investors are made aware of TCT.