China Nonferrous Gold Share Discussion Threads

[legg96] 15/9/2014 09:25

Thanks CP,

Very helpful. I was looking for some data on P/Es on HK market and you have found it for me. Was thinking CNG might achieve 10, but something higher than that now looks as if it might be achieveable although lack of takeover prospect will be inhibiting to some extent.

[cp42kx07] 12/9/2014 14:43

For anyone who hasn't come across it, AASTOCKS is an excellent HK-focused site.

This is the precious metals sector page:

[cp42kx07] 11/9/2014 08:26

legg96

I believe that the projected production levels and costs are taken from the ITR so nothing new there.

Phase 1 58,200 oz pa, operating costs $431 per oz
Phase 2 116,400oz pa, operating costs $371 per oz
LoM sustaining capex $20 per oz

[legg96] 11/9/2014 07:47

CP,
Many thanks for that summary it is really helpful. I will probably go thro` the document over the weekend. Is there any update on expected ozs. of production and cost per oz?

[cp42kx07] 10/9/2014 19:34

So...

1. Capital raising c USD 78m (but perhaps up to c. USD 90m with over-allotment) at as yet unknown price.

2. Using the USD 120m bank facility (LIBOR 3m + 2.9% + 1.5%) to repay the CNMIM loans (9%).

3. One firm USD 100m offer at LIBOR 3m + 5%, another USD 100m one at LIBOR 3m + 6%.

Clearly no funding issues whichever way you look at it.

Listing application made (maximum 25 working days to wait for a decision) then prospectus publication, fund raising, HK listing / AIM de-listing.

Unfortunately UK shareholders usually have to wait for 4 to 6 weeks from listing before their HK shares appear in their UK brokers accounts and therefore miss any short term action unless they trade HK (i.e. buy shares in HK on day one).

Still at least we're moving forward.

I also liked a lot of the more general stuff about objectives, CNC / CNMIM, PRC political clout etc. It's a pity that CGH (Chaarat) management have effectively blocked a takeover as otherwise it would have been win - win for both parties (but perhaps not for the current CGH team).

[cp42kx07] 10/9/2014 14:09

Not exactly a pamphlet then. 725 pages will take some time to digest (if I don't choke on the number of times that I have to read REDACTED).

And guess what? The share price being 'stuck' at 30p works out very nicely for the 5 for 1 split! What are the chances... although I can't quite see the need for this. Perhaps 6p (HKD 0.75) doesn't rate as a penny share in HK?

[legg96] 09/9/2014 18:39

Yes I received the same assurance. They need to hold an AGM and get shareholder approval for the change in listing requirements. I think that this meeting may still be some way off. Not sure what the deadline is for an AGM. They also need to produce their interim accounts for the HK listing authorities because the annual accounts are now well over 6 months old.

[cp42kx07] 09/9/2014 18:18

legg96

Unfortunately I have no further suggestions other than the usual conspiracy theory / pure speculation ones that abound on discussion boards. There are just too many uncertainties at the moment to be able to construct a cogent narrative.

I do know that over a month ago (see my post #123) I received the strong impression from the company that there would be some form of shareholder meeting but have heard nothing since.

TBH I'm not sure that management are really that interested in the residual UK shareholders. Craig is of course still around as an adviser but I suspect that this has more to with the directors needing to comply with HK listing requirements than anything else.

[legg96] 09/9/2014 16:49

I agree CP. Today £70k of shares have changed hands and the share price has fluctuated in a 16% range. All explanations welcome.

[cp42kx07] 09/9/2014 13:50

G4

I'm tempted even though I still have far too many based on any theory of rational asset allocation.

The problem (as I see it) is that there hasn't really been a true market in these since the listing / de-listing announcement. The share price has been manipulated for much of the time and could just as easily be driven down to 21p as up to 40p. This will only end when liquidity increases after a placing and the HK listing.

All too inscrutable for my taste but I'm determined to see this through after so many years.

[griffin4] 09/9/2014 12:52

CP, let's buy some more then.

[cp42kx07] 09/9/2014 08:42

The closer we get to production, the lower the share price ..

Weird.

[cp42kx07] 04/9/2014 10:54

legg96

I'm sure that the intention is to have a placing at the time of the HK listing (in fact it may even be a requirement). The recent loan finance will be an interim measure while the company and its advisers mess around trying to finalise the listing. They might also consider a two stage placing, on listing and then 6 to 12 months later.

Perhaps the listing delay has created the possibility of upward share price pressure as production draws near. This would make life harder for those tasked with the placing (but would be better for all the long-termers). In any event, the company continues to be as useless as always in its investor communications.

Memo to self: Steer clear of any companies that use Blytheweigh for their Financial PR. Although, to be fair, I see from their website that their idea of "Investor Relations" makes no mention of actual shareholders! Hmmm.

[legg96] 04/9/2014 10:23

You could be right. There are 2 sells of 100,000 on the order book at 30.5 and 31.00. That means sell order materially exceed buy orders, which is somewhat off putting to any one thinking of buying. This pattern usually occurs when someone is trying to keep the price down. Maybe there will be placing at the time of the listing and someone wants to pick up more cheap shares. I`ve seen that happen before.

[cp42kx07] 04/9/2014 08:24

drip...

drip...

drip...

drip...

drip...

drip...

drip...

drip...




Chinese water torture?

Since the (potential) AIM de-listing announcement on 08/05/13 the average closing price for CNG has been 29.49p with a standard deviation of 2.43p, average daily volume 174,678. The current beta is 0.17 (which might imply that this is a utility company)! One might almost think that someone has an interest in keeping the share price at these levels. Given how close we are to production it seems strange that any investor would wish to sell right now so perhaps it is just low-level 'churn' to maintain a low reference price for a future HK placing?

[cp42kx07] 08/8/2014 13:31

Interesting overview of the HKEx listing process for mineral companies (including details of the relevant exceptions):

hxxp://www.legalink.ch/Root/Sites/legalink/documents/Charltons-Hong-Kong/Charltons_Listing%20Mineral%20Companies%20in%20Hong%20Kong.pdf

It looks as though we may have slipped up on the date on either the Competent Persons Report or the Valuation Report as these must be no more than 6 months earlier than the date of the listing application.

Pages 44 & 45 give a good insight into the timeline.

If the timing is the same for a re-application then it would appear that the "review by exchange" step takes up to 25 business days.


CP

edit: The following recent article in SCMP suggests a minimum 8 week wait before re-application so perhaps a total 13 week delay which might place the IPO rather later than would be ideal in the 4th quarter or even in 2015. Obviously all this is wild surmise given that we don't have details of the application or knowledge of the directors' intentions regarding the IPO and placing.



I also wonder whether there might be some issues regarding the number of public shareholders and the percentage held by the 3 largest public shareholders but presumably these are technicalities that would have been addressed by the advisers (just like the report date - ha! ha!).

[eke] 07/8/2014 14:45

Another rare buying opportunity in the 20's.

[cp42kx07] 07/8/2014 14:43

Somewhat surprising given the number (and cost) of advisers doubtless involved in the listing process.

One wonders how much changing a date on the ITR will delay matters...

[novicetrade68] 07/8/2014 14:04

What a bummer....

[pedr2] 05/8/2014 16:16

Rang the CNG London office today re the AGM. It will be held in the near future in London.

[cp42kx07] 02/8/2014 09:10

ned

I think they were a little tardi(s) with their booking. Boom! Boom!


B Brush Esq.

[ned] 01/8/2014 19:37

CP42Kx07

Have they tried Dr Woo?

[cp42kx07] 01/8/2014 13:58

Further to my previous post, I understand CNG directors are looking for a central London telephone box in which to hold the AGM. (Teleconference? Something lost in translation perhaps? Ed.)


CP

[jimlad] 31/7/2014 22:18

Thank you for that CP
Jimlad

[cp42kx07] 31/7/2014 17:40

Some information updates:

1. Exploration licence. This is still pending but so are all other licences (both new and renewal) for all resource companies in Tajikistan since the chairs were shuffled in Tajik government circles following the presidential (re-)election last year. It's not that they don't like us then... In fact the current problem with any kind of permit in Tajikistan was probably the reason for the recent restructuring of the construction contracts.

2. Subscription bonus tax. This was settled at the much higher than anticipated level in order to clear the decks for the HK listing. Perhaps they should have stuck with the negotiations a while longer but that's 20/20 hindsight for you.

3. HK listing. I guess this will be the key question for the AGM which I now understand IS likely to take place (late August?). The departure of Tide Favour was more to do with the listing sponsor (Guotai Junan Capital) not feeling there was much need for them given GTC's strong standing in the HK & PRC financial world.

4. Construction. Continues apace as one might have hoped / expected.


CP