|7% up on the day.... Carl Icahn buying in massively....see you at 60 bucks ;)
|Another sign - forward expected demand is falling on the basis of this survey. The South West figure for those looking to buy over the next two years is particulalry interesting - it has gone from 16% in April 2001 to 7% now.
Take out the froth of price increase expection or the realisation that prices are actually falling and that 7% figure could decline a lot further - halve that again an you'd be looking at a pretty stagnant market in terms of sales.
Faith in property at two-year low says A&L
By Yvette Essen (Filed: 14/08/2002)
Confidence in the property market is at its lowest for two years, according to a survey by Alliance & Leicester.
The moving/improving index of 4,000 adults last month showed the number of people planning to buy a home in the next two years had dropped from 15pc last summer to 11pc.
It said the decisions were caused by warnings from commentators that property prices cannot continue to rise and might even fall in the near future.
However, people in their 20s were sustaining the market, with one in four looking to purchase a property in the next couple of years.
They felt buying was cheaper than renting, with 37pc of youngsters saying this was the most important factor when buying a home. Gaining more independence was their second reason, compared with people in their 30s who wanted more space and bigger gardens.
A spokesman for Alliance & Leicester said that, despite confidence generally being low, youngsters were driven by the fear that they might not get on the property ladder, particularly in London, where 13pc of all interviewees indicated that they were hoping to buy.
In comparison, only 7pc of people living in the South West wanted to purchase in the next two years, down from a 16pc high in April 2001.
"People are worried they will not be able to afford a property in the future," he said. "They want to get out and move on and are still confident the property market will not turn against them."
The survey said single people were also more likely to move, with 19pc of respondents saying they would do so, compared with 13pc of married people and 8pc who were divorced, widowed or separated.
"Before people bought as couples," said the spokesman.|
|SELL SIGNAL:(maybe I should say too late too sell signal)
Building Societies start cautioning that housing has peeked.
Trumpet also posted a dam good article from Hamptons which is well worth reading and warns people to realistically price their house if they want to sell.
The bias from over demand to oversupply is very much in the cards now.
Wednesday, 14 August, 2002, 08:30 GMT 09:30 UK
UK housing market 'may slow'
B&B joined the FTSE 100 last month
The mortgage bank Bradford & Bingley (B&B) has said that the UK's housing market could be about to slow.
The bank gave the warning as it announced a 5% increase in pre-tax profits to £125.5m for the first six months of the year. .....
But Mr Rodrigues told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that recent record rises in house prices would not last.
"The housing market is not going to go on rising at the rate it has been," he said.|
when it's already feeling a bit toppy, and Greenspan decides NOT to cut rates against market expectations.|
|What should not be forgotten in insurance valuations is the cost of clearing the site before rebuilding can even commence. I suspect that this would not be a trivial amount.|
I bought my first house in Manchester in 1987 and was very lucky to just about afford it before house prices almost doubled in the 'good' area. Then prices were flat for around 10 years in the 'good' area and also the nearby not-so-good areas.
Still in Manchester and in the 'good' areas you would strugle to get a one bed flat for under £100K. I have seen the ripple effect outwards to the less good areas. I think some of this is semi-permanent: places like Withington, Fallowfield and Rushholme which had been declining but have benefited from quite a bit of new private sector new infrastructure - shops, supermarkets and new housing.
I don't know what will happen to some of the real criminal ghetto areas which have shot up in price by 30% over the past year. These were the places where a couple of years ago houses (yes houses) were selling for under £20K. I suspect the boom in those areas is more fragile because there has not (so far) been much new private sector infracstructure invested there.
|Two pearls of Wisdom from my attic.
Always buy the worst house in the best street and not vice versa. (A play on location, location, location)
Also, all asset bubbles are self limiting as there is only a finite amount of money that can flow into an asset bubble as ecomonic return is finite and the more people you have chasing that will diminishing the total return. In short, don't follow the crowd.|
|Kayak... I see what you are saying and actually we dont disagree ...
what I am pointing out is that what the insurers say is the cost to rebuild is just not accurate.
A typical £200K house 3 bedrooms etc... maybe costs £80K to build brand new from the ground floor up.
Insurers will not swallow that figure and if you insure for under market value and you have a claim then the insurers will pay out proportionately.
Ie if you insure a house for 60% of its value then you will get 60% of the amount you claimed....
be careful with this I know its the case.....
anyrate this is another very grey area ... my wife is an insurance underwriter so I should defer to her :0(|
|with regard to the rebuild costs and insurers. i used to be an underwriter for direct line. we would ask the customer what their rebuild cost was and point out it wasn't the purchase price of the property - could be more or less.
they usually didn't know so the computer would give them a a rough figure. it was of course way over the real odds of rebuilding, but that was to cover direct line for taking on the risk. the onus was on the customer to find out the accurate rebuild.|
I had a play with the calculator not bad results not that comprehensive but the numbers it comes up with seem realistic.
It is ok on my computer as Viruses were not invented when it was built. ::~))
(oops peculiar where did that come from ? )
I understand, not really missing much though, just take the example figs and scale them up/down a bit for property size and you'll have a pretty reasonable ballpark figure. There was suprisingly little difference in a lot of the costs like material type. Somewhere between £60 per sq ft for hiring local builders and doing some work and £100 per sq ft for surpervised professional build looks to be a resonable ballpark guide.
Some of the timber framed building costs do look attractive though and well maintatined there is no reason why they should not be at least as viable as a lot of the site build that is going up now (which in a lot of cases has been designed for some pretty amazing low life spans - 60 years I've seen mentioned!).|
|trumpet - unfortunately the selfbuildit calculator is an XLS with Macros. Running unaudited macros violates security policy ... it may well be clean but to guard against Macros Viruses etc. "Allow Macros" is OFF for all my Office Apps., both at work and at home.|
|Scrip.... lets just put whats left of our dosh in a sock under the bed and join the new age travellers.
Or better still get a motorcycle and ride ahead of them and show up at the site they intend visiting next and extort money from the landowner to see them off.
Got to be some money to be made somewhere.......
sort of worst crowd in the best street philosphy :0)|
|Re: post 40 -
(This is a bit long)
I would agree there seems to be a "ripple" effect where the more desirable areas go up in price first, then progressively less desirable ones, as buyers are forced to move downmarket of their ideal due to prices beyond their means.
The displaced "top end" buyers create inflated demand in the "middle" market which in turn displaces "middle" buyers toward the bottom. I suppose the logical end of this is when anything at all buyable has been affected. If there's no room at the Inn ...
I was fortunate in 1987 to have just caught the wave in Manchester when I bought in a "not so bad / not so good" area at the time which I felt was sufficiently close to an area that had just jumped in price to be next in line.
Indeed in the 3 or 4 years after I bought asking prices nearly doubled. Fat lot of good it did me financially, as I stayed put during the subsequent flat market, but at least I got in cheap enough.
I wonder if a positive side effect of people who are not destitute moving into "dump" areas is a dilution of the "criminal ghetto" nature which some might associate with these areas. I realise this is a controversial issue, and "criminal ghetto" is probably a derogatory description. I am not going to say if any particular areas are in fact controlled by crime but that is maybe not exactly the point. The point is, I think, that in certain areas many people are frightened to go out for fear of crime, and frightened to report crime to the authorities, because of a perception that the criminal elements are in control. Maybe that perception is sufficient to make them in control, in effect.
If enough "regular" people move into a previously "ghetto" area maybe this can dilute the fear and help to restore law and order. But does this effect reverse when prices have fallen again? i.e. does the ability to afford "something better" move "respectable" first time buyers out of the "dodgy" area they had been forced to buy into initially even though their presence has made the area "less dodgy". Such owners may still feel a bit uncomfortable remembering the area's history, or there may still be trouble albeit at a reduced level. When they can move, they may do so, "creating a vacuum".|
|I have just sold my buy to let (formally my home) in the South East. It has taken me 2 months and even then I accepted a lower bid (10% less). I just want shot and to be honest I have learnt not to try and get market tops.
Having dealt with agents over the last few months, the market sounds very toppy especially if you have a flat, I think now is the time. Most flat renters can get houses for the same money so the rental market is very soft, my tennant has move into a property that is much bigger for the same money, and got a two year fixed rental agreement. (By the way he is a professional futures trader, couldn't wait to liquidate his property and rip the arm off this landlord. In his words, "I just moved into cash, stuck it on deposit and managed to fix my housing costs at zero (against interest receivable) for two years. You tell me who is the muppet now". He did them go on about buying shed loads of MMO2 shares, to make up for capital growth but I will let him off that one.
|Here are examples:
|FSE, some insurances may be based on market value, some on the number of rooms, but the majority are based on rebuilding cost. A survey report will quote a rebuilding cost which is calculated on the footfall and type of house. This is what the house is then insured for. In the South East the rebuilding cost is normally much lower than the market value, normally because of scarcity of land.|
|Kayak... No its NOT !
in a word
its an insurance rip off always has been that way if you dont take insurance up to 100% of the value they suggest they dont pay on the claim.
Build cost can be readily attainable by asking a builder
cos... thats what they do !
or you can look at sites that deal with this on the internet ...
sorry but you are not correct its replacement not rebuild...|
|Calculating the building cost of a property is simple. Merely look at your buildings insurance document, since buildings insurance is calculated on rebuilding cost and not on market value. Surveys show the rebuilding value and the insurance company uprates it every year based on the movement of an index of rebuilding costs.|
|Just plugged a few figs into a construction estimation Spreadsheet available from this page:
Size of house m 0
Size of house ft 1200
Area of build
NW, SW, East + Scotland
Main contactor for complete build
Specification of build
Welsh slate (new)
Build cost m £673
Build cost per ft £63
Total build cost £75,026|
|Have a friend who is just about to complete self-build.
4 Bed, all services, footings, fixtures and fittings (not the most expensive bathroom, kitchen etc, but not cheapo stuff either). All up cost £100K.
This is a one off indivdual build. Don't know the size off hand but probably around 1200 sq ft +.|
|marginally off topic but i have made a few postings on the other threads with respect to build costs.
I dont think people have the faintest idea what it costs to build a new house.
Only builds i have done are overseas but even with adjusting for UK prices.
I must admit I am not 100% au fait with UK costs but I am guessing that Sq Ft costs range from around £40 to £60
I know in Canada actual build not land is literally half that figure ...
Obviously 100 unit builds are so much cheaper....
These 2 bdrm flats in areas like Reading are about 800 Sq ft.
They cant cost more than £35,000 to £45,000 to build.
Add in the land costs which granted are high but on a 100 unit build ? £20,000 to £25,000 per unit... Thats £2M to £2.5M.....
Can anyone shed any light on this ?|