||ORD USD0.005 (DI)
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Real-Time news about China Medical (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|3800: while the share price did briefly fall below 30p in July the current placing does look a bit of a give away, an underwritten rights issue would have been fairer to existing shareholders but would have cost the company more. I hope it isnt one of those times when the family of existing management have the chance to buy at the vastly discounted price, I don't suppose we will even get a look in.
|penpont: Not for the faint hearted this one at the moment....
I assume this latest drop is due to another bout of selling by those who don't want to go to Hong Kong. Might create a buying opp for others.
Could do with an interim TS to let us know how things are going and perhaps steady the share price.|
|dasv: more from Jan 10 research note:-
"ADJUSTING THE FOCUS
Recent news flow, as reflected in a positive trading update, explains why
CMS' shares have been making all time highs.
In December 2009, the Company's R&D activities (Healthlink) were spun-off in a
totally separate entity, turning CMS into an almost pure sales & marketing and
distribution organisation with a clearer and focused growth path. CMS intends to
continue with its existing business strategy of introducing 2 new imported
products each year and is also exploring different in-licensing models other than the current exclusive agency approach.
Growth trends continued in FY2009 with an estimated sales increase of 32% to
US$96m from US$73m the previous year. CMS' shares have extended their stellar
performance and in the last eight months UK and Asian private investors have
increasingly showed interest in the stock that has seen healthy increases in daily trading. We have highlighted before many of the key factors behind this rerating:
the impeccable management execution track record over several years;
stable sales and marketing network:
the ability to introduce new products each year; and
manufacturing facilities that meet GMP-certification.
This has now been recognised with the renewed interest in Chinese based
companies that has seen, just within the healthcare sector, one of the largest IPO in recent years (US$1.3bn): the listing of Sinopharm Holdings' in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in mid September. Also the general strong recovery of the Asian equity markets has contributed to the share price surge. CMS has said it is currently exploring the possibility of a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Given the proximity of the final full year results, and the fact that the HK listing is still to be completed, we are not yet changing our forecasts but continue to see CMS as a very attractive business model going forward."|
|dasv: excerpt from Jan 10 research in penpont's research link (http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=22877479&from=29)
"If we compare the position of the basket of companies included in our May note
now an then we can see that P/E multiples have more doubled from 9.7 to 22.8
and y-o-y returns have turned from double digit negative percentage (almost all
of them) to triple positive percentage figures in most cases (see Table 1).
CMS currently trades at 24.9x P/E (Bloomberg consensus) which is in line with the average P/E ratio of the companies included in our basket. However, the excellent track record, posting y-o-y high margins well above the competitors and dividend levels are all key differentiating elements on top of solid fundamentals. The Company remains well funded with strong cash flow generation that allows them to continue to grow the business without disruption.
The share price has clearly had a tremendous run which, as we have outlined, is
unlikely to reverse sharply as a potential HK listing creates buying interest from a new investor base. However, the second listing is still to be achieved and it is always wise to keep track on fundamentals and ratings. This exercise does still provide reassurance that the quality and growth projections of this business strongly underpin the current AIM share price:
- our historic preferred methodology of a DCF incorporating UK risk free rates
gives up a fair value of 420p / share on current currency and yield levels.
- Hong Kong has never issued long term government bonds but its currency is of
course pegged to the US$. Rerunning the calculation with American risk free rates gives a fair value of 602p / share."
divide by 20 and 30p is fair value as per Jan 10 when this was written however results after this exceeded expectations so I would argue fair value is well in excess of 30p.|
|penpont: I just had a look back at a couple of Equity Dev notes - available here if you register:
Although they didn't cover the recent full year results, they do offer some comparative data in the 2009 interim note, suggesting the av PE of similar Chinese medical Cos is 22.8. Assuming that CMSH earns around 2p this year (previous growth suggests to me that is possible) that would indicate a price of around 45p.
The volatility in Chinese stocks with HK listing intentions has unfortunately turned out to be pretty ludicrous, leaving small cos like CMSH looking like pure gambling counters. I seem to remember something similar with ACHL and of course WCC has had its ups and downs too.
I had always thought that of the Chinese Cos I owned shares in, this was the better in terms of overall quality of earnings and I'm still hopeful that post HK that will demonstrate itself in the share price.
An interim TS would perhaps help settle things meantime though.|
Has anymore information come out since January about the company's HK listing? CMSH present PE is far higher than the other Chinese AIM companies already listed. Do you think the move will have much effect on the share price?|
|nfs: a very unexpected move up-caught me out as I was hoping for a fall back-looking at eps forecasts this is on a PE of 20 now,very toppy compared to other chinese stocks-I know its a medical business but the tight holdings must be exaggerating the share price movements?|
|dasv: You have to put a thumb in the air estimate on next year's earnings - in my view the earnings growth supports a much higher PER than current share price suggests however after a swift rise like that a pull back is almost inevitable.|
|fr4dge: Surprised no-one has posted on this today.
Looks like the market is finally beginning to cotton on to this share's many attributes.
Rapidly growing profits / turnover.
Great sector / geographic market - Pharma / China
Great balance sheet - net tangible assets cover over a quarter of the share price.|
|nfs: some quick numbers on 2008 H1 and H2 and 2009H1
SALES USDm 33.8,38.8,46.8
Net Profit 7.4,7.6,9.9
Cash is approx 25% of share price and net tangible assets are 64m
So full year might be EPS 42C and normally the interim divi is approx 1/3 of the total of the year,but as the interim was double I think we could assume 20c in total
At 1.6USD to £1 then that's 26p EPS and divis of 13p and a£2 share price means PE of 7.8 and yield 6.5%|
China Medical share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange