|China Biodiesel Intl Holding Co
||ORD USD0.01 (DI)
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about China Bio (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|tim00: qip, re: PMHL, forget the property angle, the reason to buy is that the company has over £50 mn allocated to buy back shares in order to close the gap to NAV (somewhere north of £3). Whatever value you put on the property assets, it doesn't alter the fact that the company's share purchases will force the share price substantially higher, probably during July. The majority shareholder already owns 60% of the shares, so the supply will be limited, but the new demand (via buybacks) will be overwhelming.|
|tim00: Personally I think a Chinese relist would be a long time away, AIM is not that burdensome, nor expensive. Companies the size of CBI are really too small to be quoted. The hope must have been that without the global recession, CBI's share price would have been on an upward trend rather than the opposite, and they could have used AIM to raise further funds to expand more rapidly. (They've mentioned other provinces now have minimum useage of biodiesel for example.) I agree the most likely opportunity to sell would be to a Director, Ye or Gloria He, but would Ye bother to buy shares from a tiny holder and if he did, would he give you fair value? He would have a massive information advantage over the seller, and might offer you 16.5p. WCC and PMHL are excellent opportunities at the moment. One strategy is to sell CBI at close to 16p in the market by late June, buy PMHL then sell PMHL late July and invest in WCC. Excellent chance of more than doubling your money on a three month horizon.|
|qipincha: so the share price plus the div, we should get around 16.75p/share on 14th July? or maybe more? as pound is weak|
|qipincha: one thing I am not sure is why cbi doesn't want to be listed on Hong Kong or any Chinese stock market? the share price could be well above the current value in AIM. (there is a smaller company valued at £1 /share in Chinese market)|
|qipincha: mm has to raise share price to get free share floating on the market. the current share price is too low, no one want to sell.|
|tim00: Yes, they're very different of course, but have somethings in common. I don't agree that being Chinese is irrelevant. At some point, demand for CBI's products will outstrip supply, just as is happening now with cement due to the Chinese govt's stimulus package. That day will come sooner should the govt promote biofuels via setting minimum thresholds for use of biodiesel etc. I'm confident that CBI's day will come, I just don't know how long the wait will be. As you say TTB, no reason why CBI shouldn't perform like WCC when it was sub-£1, once demand outstrips supply and pricing power recovers. Finally, I'm not sure WCC's best days are behind it (though the rate of growth in the share price will be a little slower I accept), in the sense that the share price might exceed your 2-3x projection.|
|buggy: Jailbird has a point. We can all bury our head in the sand and believe that a lowered price of diseil do not affect CBI or we can deal with that and scope the likely extent of impact.
If the Chinese govt raised the price of diesel now we all will be jumping up and thinking that this is very good for CBI. If they lowered it all of a sudden it does not affect CBI.
CBI manufactures diesel. They had to try and future refine their product to the BI and BII products exactly because of the low price of regular diesel BIII.
MY only take is that late last year, I believe, on the price of diesel went up by almost 1000RMB. Over this year they have also raised the price of diesel a few times and lowered a couple of time. I still think that when all the raises and lowering is taken into effect the price is still higher than it was last year.
This lowering will have an effect but not crucial to the mid term performance of CBI and any person investing in this company must have at a long term view in other to reap the full benefit.
Diesel/Biodiesel is the future.
Not enough stocks in circulation.
Good Corporate Governance (unlike a host of Chines companies).
Large home market.
Cheap labour cost.
Management intrest coincides with share holders as they hold significant share in the company.
Company is actively diversifying its product range [ Believe they were researching a new product last year which will carry a better price than what they currently sell]
Any person wishing to be in needs to take a position now. Because when this becomes apprarent to the general public the share price will move wildly as there just is not enough stock to go round. Even at this stage it is still difficult to get any significant holding .. you have to buy in small quanties.|
|qipincha: hi tim,
this time, I will stick to my calculation.
share price = NAV /number of share + EPS * PE
regarding my calculation,
NAV lay down the foundation of a company in stock market. How much the company worth, that's the basic question. however, the EPS that used in my calculation reflect the business power of the company and also it related to the dividend that share holders may gain. therefore, it is not a double count. the PE value here, is purely an impact factor, reflect the market sentiment on this share.
PE is not a constant value, it should be something close to a tangent function. When company make money, PE is high, when it make small profit, PE is low. And when company losing money, PE should be negative.
There are many other factors that should be considered when estimate share price For example the prospect of the biodesiel industry. Biodesiel, green energy, should have more and more market in the future. In 2009, there are many many oil companies went bust, it is risky to invest in oil company these days as the exploitation is more difficult and cost is higher. And one day,the oil will dry out on our planet.
Xiamen is on the south west coast of China, and Longyan is only hundred mile away from Xiamen. CBI has the great advantage to ship their product to oversea countries, therefore, minimise the impact of the price control in mainland china.|
|qipincha: Hi tim,
agree with your estimation.
I feel that cbi has been extremely under valued in the past year.
In fact, the share price should be based on the value of the company plus the profit, not only the profit. For example BYOT,FGN, the share price stand above 30p and the companies are not even making profit.
CBI has a very low PE value compare to many other stocks in its section. with estimed eps 5p, the share price should be back to a region between 50p-80p level,at least|
|campomar2: Whats that got to do with judging where the share price will be?
The share price will be governed by expected future profits.
This sector is only given a P/E of 2.
So with a market cap of £ 6 million, and a share price of 15p CBI will have to make £3 million in profits, which seems extremely unlikely.
How on earth they managed to get a IPO at 85p per share is anyones guess.|
China Biodiesel share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange