Chieftain Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 19/9/2008 15:06

It does not add up at this low price unless they are trying to encourage another bidder but it does say at advanced stage and 209.2p is rather precise. The divi is 3.3p so the total is 212.5p but still only a minimal premium and not even above the years high even though the interims were ahead of forecasts.

[philjeans] 19/9/2008 14:59

I'll be voting against for sure.

[veryniceperson] 19/9/2008 14:58

Sold up the river boys and girls 209.5 rubbish offer and they know it. Hope it all falls through, but it won't.

[barn owl] 19/9/2008 14:40

Worth at least £2.50p in my book.

[domwilliams] 19/9/2008 14:36

Potential offer at 209.2p in cash. The Board are recommending it...

[davidosh] 11/9/2008 12:10

No worries there...I have not heard anything regarding any specific contract and the Teesside power station is one of many that they undertake so not at all significant by itself as this news story last year would confirm.



They are still growing the maintenance division and the important underlying base must be that margins are not eroded to gain or retain business. The larger clients will also be keen to see continuity and security within a long term contract and although a small company Chieftain have a very strong balance sheet. They will probably pick up work from far weaker contractors in this market.

You will note from the interims that CFT margins are improving considerably and I am looking forward to that continuing trend.

[gepetto] 11/9/2008 11:48

Bottom drawer left.


-Sorry, couldn't resist

[felix99] 11/9/2008 10:45

lol if they lost it its becuase they can earn more money out of the labour elsewhere on the subs/carriers/ oil and gas so would not be too concerned either way.

[fivefive] 11/9/2008 10:23

I think cft company RBC have lost the maintenance contract on Teesside power station. Can anyone confirm?

[davidosh] 08/9/2008 09:44

A review of the results

[davidosh] 07/9/2008 13:49

Naturally without the economic woes most small caps would be far higher and Aim stocks have been particularly badly hit. My own earnings model for CFT is admittedly bullish and factoring in possible contracts such as the aircraft carrier work which the management have merely mentioned carefully and certainly not in any way allowed into the forecasts or entered on the order books.

For the full year 2008 I expect 53m in revenue and eps of 20p...then in 2009 I am hoping to see an uplift to 58m with nearly 23p of earnings. 2010 will be the big one if the tenders are confirmed and the huge contracts for the aircraft carriers kick in. An order book well past £100m for a tiny company with a market cap of £16m cannot be ignored for too long and the main directors who are not getting any younger and have large stakes may be tempted to cash in some chips.

The long term visibility just gets better and better and the balance sheet stronger. The dividend should remain about 2.2 times covered so a nice return on the investment whilst we let the canny management do what they do extremely well. I have only held for just under five years but I fully expect a ten bagger including dividend returns on my initial investment and over seven years I am sure you will be equally rewarded if not more so..

[veryniceperson] 07/9/2008 13:10

Well I have held them now for 7 years. Got 10ks worth and hope to pay a large chunk of my mortgage in 2 or 3 years time. If the country wasn't in the economic woes as it is now David, what do you the share price would be a the present time.

[davidosh] 07/9/2008 12:46

The stars are actually the management and hard working employees at Chieftain. It makes my life easy as a researcher, investor and commentator to see a company where the old fashioned work ethics are paramount and they just keep delivering good results. No fancy bonuses, no ridiculous option packages and this company certainly saw the hard times so even if they were not in such a great position right now I would still put my money on them to come out on top.

As it is though I confidently expect some rather good news compared to the general market woes and CFT will stand out as a very nice investment paying a safe healthy dividend too.

[veryniceperson] 07/9/2008 12:30

Thanks david your a star

[marvelman] 07/9/2008 07:25

Thanks for that David.

[davidosh] 04/9/2008 14:13

I cannot provide a full copy of the broker note for obvious copyright reasons but the headline para in bold reads....

Chieftain reported a strong first half this morning and an upbeat outlook statement. Revenues increased by 6% to
£22.8m, while operating profit increased by 29% to £1.0m. Looking forward, buoyant end markets (oil and gas,
marine), the strength of the order book (still around £69m) and the prospect of another pipework contract award
later on in the year contribute to a positive outlook for the Group. We expect to leave our forecasts unchanged
for now, but to move to a forecast sensitivity of 4 in anticipation of further contract news later on in the year.


It will have been sent out to all their clients this morning and there is a BUY rec.

[davidosh] 04/9/2008 13:31

I think the brokers will have upgraded profit forecasts as the second half is always significantly stronger. Operating profit last year was 28% higher in H2 so if the same again this year (and should be better due to the big contract) then eps will be above 20p. Forecasts for 2009 will also be upgraded I suspect to around 23p. Just my honest opinion as I have not seen the note yet.

[veryniceperson] 04/9/2008 13:17

Not in these markets. Jeff H. But as you wow!

[felix99] 04/9/2008 13:02

lovely - anyone got the note?

[jeff h] 04/9/2008 12:36

Brewin Dolphin have a Buy rec and a 345p price target...wow!

[davidosh] 04/9/2008 09:49

The record contract announced in April is all H2 charged and H1 2009 with another likely to be announced next month for oil rig work for Gulf of Mexico. Welders in North East pick up all the info so good source.

The order book is very strong even without any new contracts factored in and of course the aircraft carrier work to 2014 very likely to come within next few months.

[philjeans] 04/9/2008 09:39

Their contracts are lumpy by nature and will inevitably affect half year figures from year to year; similarly, cash will go up and down depending on receipt of invoices and expenditure on materials - this is still a tiny business compared with some other heavy weights in the sector.

But a super little business where I can see the share price doubling once the bear market turns; Cash, profits, growth, no debt, non retail, mortgage or finance; massive yield etc etc.