Chesnara Share Discussion Threads

[johnroger] 02/9/2016 10:32

IC comment
Low interest rates took a chunk out of Chesnara’s (CSN) pre-tax profits during the first-half of this year as the value of liabilities associated with its S&P business increased. However, economic value - a measure of the value of existing insurance business plus adjusted net asset value of non-insurance business - also increased to £460m from £453m. Buy.

[topvest] 31/8/2016 20:48

yes, agreed - a quality share.

[jonwig] 31/8/2016 07:27

H1 results - profitability impacted by "a reduction in the yield curve" - similar to PHNX a week ago. This shouldn't affect the share price unduly, as it ought to have been expected.

Outcome of FCA investigation into exit charges still awaited - it looks as though they don't expect too big an impact.

Solvency ratio holding up well, and look at Waard (584%) - they had a bargain there.

Considering their principal business is managing closed life funds, new business written in Sweden is their most profitable area!

Economic Value up a bit to 363p/sh - essentially what they used to report as EEV.

A decent hold, in my view.

[sogoesit] 23/8/2016 14:32

Recovery still going on despite interest rate cut.
Half year results Wed 31/08.

[solarno lopez] 04/8/2016 11:18

A somewhat perky price of late despite Brexit

[keith95] 10/7/2016 12:09

Shorts will be targeting NAV here .. look to hold below 233 .. but still a day trade share for me.

[jonwig] 09/7/2016 10:40

eggs - dunno. Notice that the dividend is expected to grow!

It may be that the analysts (3 cover the stock) are making provision for the FCA investigation and the impact of pensions freedom. This was their Outlook Statement on 31 March and they haven't amended it since:

Much has been said regarding the potential impact on British industry should the referendum in July regarding British membership of the EU result in a "leave" vote. The longer term economic impacts of staying in the EU or leaving remain uncertain and as a result we continue to monitor the situation closely. We do, however, believe that the impact of a "leave" vote will not materially affect Chesnara's business.

Our financial and governance foundations are strong and our existing books continue to generate reassuring levels of cash. In addition, with more certainty about the impact of Solvency II across the industry and with our entry to the Dutch market, the acquisition outlook is increasingly positive. I am therefore confident that Chesnara can continue to deliver against its strategic objectives and provide value to policyholders and shareholders.

[chairman20] 04/7/2016 14:42

a very small company to have made the radar of the Norwegian central bank

shows how little is safe out there

[jonwig] 04/7/2016 10:59

Norges Bank has increased its stake from 2,442,457 shares to 3,821,253 shares (3.02%).

I think this is noteworthy as Norges is the Norwegian Central Bank and manages the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund which has been de-risking its portfolio away from O&G recently.

[deadly] 30/6/2016 09:44

OK why not?

[fenners66] 28/6/2016 00:35

Ok so why we hit so hard?

[speedsgh] 27/6/2016 19:01

First top up today since 2012. May get cheaper still but was happy to lock in 7%+ yield for long term from such a conservatively run business.

[pvb] 27/6/2016 17:53

PER shown as 8 now, so.... getting interesting? Or too risky at the mo?

[solarno lopez] 15/6/2016 14:41

Thanks for that

[jonwig] 15/6/2016 14:39

It's the "Brexit Tantrum", surely?

I was asked how PHNX could be affected by Brexit. Response similar for CSN, with some modifications:

1) Its beta is about 0.4 so it moves with (not against) the main equities index.

2) One of the chief factors affecting its MCEV [EEV] is credit spread (corporate bonds over gilt yields). Apart from immediate volatility ("owt can appen") I think interest rates will probably have to be cut to stave off recession so gilt yields will fall (and to hell with the value of sterling and the inflation rate). On the other hand corporate bonds will become more risky, so their yield spreads are likely to rise.

3) Most analysts see the financial sector as vulnerable, so any company in that sector will be hit as first response.

4) A weak pound against the Swedish krona would be a positive for CSN, except, of course, that the Swedish business might be affected anyway by Brexit fallout.

5) We've still got the FCA probe into exit penalties to resolve, but I think they'll stop at banning future ones. I can't see financial sector bashing in the current climate.

[solarno lopez] 14/6/2016 17:10

Its a start so thanks

[chairman20] 14/6/2016 17:03

why the decline?

I don't know

As a cyclical kinda move it doesn't phase me much
but I cannot honestly explain why.

Certainly need to keep a sharper eye out in case
something emerges.

Could be market pre-empting some stocks on Brexit
fears - nothing very rational.

Or I just wonder if the appointment of Shore Capital
as joint broker in May has led to some intis selling
out or down - possibly anticipating another value-risking
acquisition.

but is just guesswork - like everything in the market

[solarno lopez] 14/6/2016 12:15

The question remains why the steady decline ?

[solarno lopez] 06/6/2016 11:34

why the steady decline ?

[petethehippy] 27/4/2016 12:35

Nice jump today. Any reason? Or just illiquid stock?

[hieronymous1] 26/4/2016 21:30

Or it might be just this unreliable market in a world run by Broadmoor escapees.

[pyemckay] 26/4/2016 19:14

earnings concencus has dropped from 24.4p eps to 22.4p eps. that might explain the drop.

[jonwig] 26/4/2016 18:53

I can find only one recent broker view:

26 Apr Canaccord Genuity Buy share price 311.63 otp 380.00 ntp 380.00 Reiterates

- doesn't give forecast earnings, though.