Chesnara Share Discussion Threads

[wayneduncan] 27/2/2015 15:31

3 year high!

[brancho] 27/2/2015 15:18

More importantly this is an ascending triangle (flat top and higher lows) which is a countinuation pattern, in this case continuation upwards- bullish signal. may be one dip to 345/350 before break out. Treat it like a coiled spring ready to go. Triple top is a bearish pattern heading for the downside but looking at the pattern I don't think this is the case.

PS if this doe break out chart sais 460 next stop

[lord gnome] 27/2/2015 14:49

Knock three times on the ceiling! Hopefully this time around we will enter instead of being rebuffed. I see no reason why not.

[skinny] 27/2/2015 14:37

Triple top on the 2 year chart.

[lord gnome] 27/2/2015 14:35

No error so far Sogoesit.

[sogoesit] 27/2/2015 11:20

Thanks for the comfort dear Lord (Gnome)!
I have added to my position today as the chart looks particularly interesting (for an upside move).
Of course, if it triple tops and slides I will have made an error but the thing about high yield is that I have the cushion of the dividends.

[sogoesit] 26/2/2015 09:31

Thanks for your insights chairman and jonwig; I am comforted!
Yes, RISK. But the corollary of risk is perception (in the case where we associate risk with uncertainty not the risk of returns/volatility).
I invest in quite a few of these "high yield" stocks (CNCT, PHNX, and FRN's for example) and often ask myself what price (yield) the stock reflects in "risk" of both sorts. I am quite often confounded by the difference between my perceptions and the market's perception.
Is CSN a "bond like" investment? Is there risk that it would then be wound-up and closed down? Neither of these applies to CSN in my view (or not in my time view for investment)... even 'tho it increases its dividend payout year-on-year and it exhibits price growth.
On the downside, however, crawling as I am to retirement, the risk of loss of value I can stomach... e.g. if, by the time i die, the stock's capital value declines it won't worry me as it will just be a loss (of tax) to the state on my death!

[jonwig] 26/2/2015 07:22

Chairman - Phoenix Group [PHNX] are actively seeking targets for consolidation of the closed-life sector, and will certainly have CSN on their database of potential acquisitions.

Unfortunately, PHNX (or even RSL) will want to buy at a discount to EEV - I doubt CSN is currently in that category. And they'd be selling off the "live" Swedish division and maybe such as Waard Group acquired in December.

So, on balance, you're probably right, but idle speculation was never damped down by a cold shower of facts!

[chairman20] 25/2/2015 22:52

Not a bid target in my view

business is too arcane and management
and key underwriters too crucial - only
if they decide to cash in would any buyer
be getting any insight as to true value.

there is a reason why the yield is above
5% - its called RISK.

[sogoesit] 25/2/2015 18:05

Yes, it has been a good long term hold; one of my first "income" shares in 2009/2010. And yield is still around 5% so it has a way to go for my sell trigger.
So far has given a CAGR, including re-investment of dividends, of around 35%. Not bad, not bad...

Frankly, I don't like companies like this being bid for; it takes away a good long term portfolio hold and then I struggle to replace it with another or, worse, I screw-up in my replacement choice and lose money. Therefore, I hope it remains quietly under the radar and keeps giving me an income for the next few years!

[trulyscrumptious] 25/2/2015 16:54

I bought these last year, mainly for the dividend. However, I am 30% up but will not sell as the income is good. As for a bid, I can see it as a good target but at what price? I am happy with the status quo.

[lord gnome] 25/2/2015 16:48

Interesting closing auction price. Is CSN the next bid target? I've had BRIT and FLG so far and there is consistent talk of further consolidation in the sector. Not such a daft idea. These are cash generative and pay a hefty dividend in a low interest rate environment.

[trulyscrumptious] 25/2/2015 16:41

Up into the 350's at last, looking strong.

[sogoesit] 23/2/2015 16:01

Chart action looks threatening....
Threatening to test the previous double-top (361p); and thence break through to the upside.

[johnroger] 16/2/2015 11:17

Positive write up in IC article Shares for Income

"the yield is around 5.5%,trading at a discount to forecast EV, there is room for gains here too"

Other shares mentioned that I hold are XPP and CNCT

[ganthorpe] 02/1/2015 17:28

Got it wrong - again.
New Year tip somewhere?
Still I do have the shares!
GAN

[trulyscrumptious] 02/1/2015 14:09

Good start to the New Year.

[ganthorpe] 28/12/2014 13:28

Cant see catching up soon as selling from relatively large placing likely to hold back the price for a while.
But still think it is a good share to hold for income.
GAN - long term holder

[deadly] 18/12/2014 11:16

This seems to have fallen well behind others in the sector such as Phoenix recently. Due to catch up?

[apad] 05/12/2014 09:03

I thought he looked reassuring - ta J.
csn is outside of my normal research area, which is hi-tec engineering, so I am feeling twitchy :-)
apad

[jonwig] 05/12/2014 08:43

Sogoesit - thanks, understood!

APAD - "life and pensions" is all valued using actuarial processes. (I considered becoming an actuary at uni, but was too lazy - and foolish.) These are the professionals who "do the math". They tend to be pretty cautious.

[apad] 05/12/2014 08:42

IC text for research purposes:-)

CHESNARA
What we said: Buy
When: 2 January 2014
Price: 318p
Share price change to date: +2%
It has been a busy week for closed life book
specialist Chesnara (CSN). Not only is
chief executive Graham Kettleborough stepping
down – effective from 31 December – but
Chesnara is buying an essentially closed life
business – Waard – in Holland, for £55m.
Mr Kettleborough’s designated replacement,
John Deane, insists the news doesn’t
signal a strategic shift, and the Waard
acquisition does look in line with the group’s
approach of buying and running down
closed books. The cash generated supports
a generous dividend and management says
“orderly capital extraction” is a key attraction
of the Waard deal.
The Waard move looks like part of a wellunderstood
strategy of generating cash from a
closed book to support dividends and, indeed,
broker Shore Capital expects a full-year dividend
of 18.4p – suggesting a tasty prospective
yield of 5.7 per cent. Yet the shares, at 323p,
trade below Shore’s full-year estimate of embedded
value (345p). That’s too cheap and we
reiterate our ‘old reliable’ buy Tip of the Year. JA
Buy

[sogoesit] 05/12/2014 08:13

jonwig; sorry to be unclear.
I was commenting on "chairman20"'s comment that companies that make acquisitions fail in those acquisitions 80% of the time. My point being that CSN's sole business strategy is in fact to acquire other businesses and work them "to death" (so to speak). To date all their acquisitions appear to have worked!