Chesnara Share Discussion Threads

[trulyscrumptious] 27/10/2014 08:42

Is this a safe stock to be in if we pull out of Europe? Views anyone.

[sogoesit] 10/10/2014 12:21

Good day dazzler. Thanks for your comments, feedback.
I am not (currently) a "trader"; not currently meaning that I have been from time to time in the past; during the US Tech markets of 1995/2000 and trading the S&P 500 with options from 2008 to mid-2009. So, in those cases a "longer term" trader if that makes sense! If I spot a theme then I may "trade" it, but not currently.

Since mid-2009 I am mostly into high yield "long term" (3+ years term view) stocks mainly because I need stability of income so I am heavily into stocks like CSN, PHNX, CNCT, and the house builders PSN and BKG and bonds bought at the bottom of the financial crisis. The theory being that the income (so long as it lasts!!) rewards (comforts?) through the volatility. I am also ready to lose capital over a 10 year term.

Looks like CSN is approaching the uptrend support line which is currently at 317p.
If you are in your trade it looks good so far; noone should complain when luck (general markets) is on your side :-)! Beta usually beats alpha in the short term!

If it breaks 316p (-3%) then I may exit this stock as there are some good profits to protect but I would need to convince myself that a major correction in the markets is also under way.

Good luck with your trade.

[bigdazzler] 10/10/2014 11:27

Sogoesit nice response and nice to have a healthy discussion. Don't doubt you use TA so wasn't 'knocking you'. Nice to see you use a proper log scale for a long term chart it's amazing how many people don't or don't understand why it is used.

Anyway I'm not disputing the share is in long term bull trend as evidenced by higher highs and lows etc and the upward movement of the longer term MA's.

My reason for the short is my observation of the failure so far of price to get past Feb 2014 high and more to the point the second failure of price to get past this point with weakening indicators showing a lack of momentum.This shown up on your chart. This point is also backed up on multiple longer term time frames which will for me hopefully be a large downward movement of price.

Keeping trading simple, I'm targeting the August low and the March low.

As I'm trading against the trend I m clearly keeping my trade small as these are more prone to failure and it would not surprise me if before I hit my target there is a retest of the recent highs. If this did happen and failed and on again even further weaking indicators I would probably increase my position.

Not the best of days to write this as a lot of price movement today is down to the general markets.

[sogoesit] 07/10/2014 21:58

I use TA too, dazzler, so I dont "knock it".
In CSN's case I agree that it is due for a retrace but I was surprised that your TA leads to the conclusion that it would fall "into the 200's". My view is that there is downside support around the 300 level and, before that, potential support on an uptrend (higher lows) at 328/330p.
In the scheme of things I am a price-taker so, for me, the market decides which is,as you say, where TA can be very helpful.

[chairman20] 07/10/2014 19:24

Takes all sorts of investors to make a market

but it is also a fact that in thinly traded shares
bloggers or blaggers can move the shares for a lot
longer than you might think - and I am not talking
about "real money" TA.

Its interesting too that its (mainly) shorters who
feel the need to tell the world - could it be that
they are actually trying to talk the share price down?

Now't wrong with that.

[bigdazzler] 07/10/2014 16:36

Fundamentals is not my game so I'm not going to talk about whether the dividend is going to be cut. I deal in TA so that is where I'm seeing the decline.

I certainly will not knock fundamental analysis far from it. Clearly it is changes in fundamentals that are the real reason for price movement.

However what I believe in TA is the fact that you can pick up on how the real money mover pros/insiders are trading a particular instrument etc.

This can be picked up by indicators and signals on the charts etc which show where accumulation and distribution is happening in a market by the professionals.

Anyway good luck to yourself and opposing views are what make a market and clearly my analysis can be wrong on occasions or Be ill timed which is where the protection of money management comes in.

[bigdazzler] 07/10/2014 11:45

I look at this a different way. The recent high on a long term chart coupled with a very long term 12 month RSI shows a lot of weakness in the recent high. I think this is heading for a nice decline and over the next 12 months I would expect the price to fall well into the 200's.

So a short for me.

[wayneduncan] 16/9/2014 19:28

Bounced off the 3 year high, is this primed for another push now??

[chector177] 08/9/2014 16:52

My very small spreadbet that I placed in March has taken profit today!! I feel like a winner lol

[speedsgh] 08/9/2014 13:50

Heading back towards its ATH...

[jonwig] 02/9/2014 07:09

It's odd that the article refers to "enterprise value" when it clearly means "embedded value".

[lord gnome] 01/9/2014 19:45

Yes - nice to read.

[cwa1] 01/9/2014 11:44

Thanks for that article speedsgh, interesting.

[speedsgh] 01/9/2014 10:13

Chesnara performance doesn’t hang on acquisitions

Chesnara (CSN) has unveiled another strong set of results, and Panmure Gordon analyst Barrie Cornes believes the shares will move towards his 365p target price even if the insurer doesn’t make another acquisition over the next year.

Chesnara has reported a 26% jump in first-half profits boosted in part by its acquisition of Protection Life, which it bought from Direct Line last year. Improved sales from its Swedish business Movestic also helped.

‘The strong cash generation and solvency levels have enabled Chesnara to continue to grow the dividend whilst continuing to search for new acquisitions,’ he said.

Cornes has a ‘buy’ recommendation on the stock and had increased his target price in July to reflect an anticipated new acquisition, but now thinks that even without another buy the shares will move higher.

‘Even without a further acquisition we believe the shares should trade close to our 365p per share target price bearing in mind our increased 2014 enterprise value and the attractive 5.7% dividend yield,’ he said. Chesnara rose 2.4% to 332p on Friday.

[topvest] 29/8/2014 12:34

Yes, very good results indeed. A quality company.

[chector177] 29/8/2014 12:19

IC have recommended a buy in their email this morning. Hopefully this and others will create some momentum. The share price has gone sideways for far too long after the thwack it took for the nonsense in March. IMHO

[loftus16] 29/8/2014 12:04

speedsgh - the income considerations you mention were largely what brought me into this a couple of summers ago. I think the yield then was approaching 10%. Capital gain circa 81% to date. No plans to sell either.

[cwa1] 29/8/2014 11:49

FWIW, this morning's broker updates:-

29 Aug 14 Chesnara PLC Canaccord Genuity Hold 329.63 320.00 335.00 Reiterates
29 Aug 14 Chesnara PLC Panmure Gordon Buy 329.63 365.00 365.00 Retains

Current price, old target price and new target price respectively.

[speedsgh] 29/8/2014 09:25

Love the way that this business is run so conservatively yet still pays a cracking dividend, especially if you bought in 2-3 years ago...

"During 2014 we have built upon our strong 2013 performance, solvency margins are healthy and on-going cash generation provides a reassuring buffer against future potential earnings variability and a good source of funding for future potential acquisitions and dividend payments."

[deadly] 29/8/2014 09:14

I'd say excellent results, and excellent value given the depressed share price recently.

- IFRS profit before tax increased by 25.7% for the six months ended 30 June 2014 to £27.4m (30 June 2013: £21.8m)

- Increase of 6.3% in EEV to £400.3m (31 December 2013: £376.4m)

- Increase of 33.6% in EEV post-tax profit to £47.3m (30 June 2013: £35.4m, excluding modelling adjustments)

- Strong gross cash generation of £16.0m (30 June 2013: £21.9m)

- Shareholder equity of 348.5p per share on an EEV basis (31 December 2013: 327.7p per share)

- Earnings per share (on an IFRS basis) of 19.87p (30 June 2013: 15.01p)

- 6.42p interim dividend per share declared (2013: 6.25p), an increase of 2.7%

- Board remains focussed on offering shareholders an attractive dividend flow

- Search for value adding acquisition opportunities continues

[dennisten] 29/8/2014 09:09

Results good - Divi increased again - I'm in for some more.

[lord gnome] 29/8/2014 08:34

News looks good to my untrained eyes. Another welcome divi increase keeping the payout running ahead of inflation. Better than an annuity!