Chaucer Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 05/5/2011 13:50

6 months to a year back, some really nice divi plays around. Mostly the share prices have risen to bring back the yield. Not that I'm compaining. :)

I bought into BEZ recently, same sector as CHU and decent yield. It is about where I bought it, but ex div. Their exposure to Japan is rather bigger, but they are more than correspondingly bigger than CHU.

Of course, if interested, dyor.

[carl79] 05/5/2011 11:43

You'll struggle to find those returns (sustainably) imo...I expect I will go for a play that has capital gain potential...I already have a ton of BT but they are looking strong and could be in a breakout. I may increase there for the safe divi but potential for a further 10-20% cap gain over the next 12 months...

[lord gnome] 04/5/2011 19:10

My thoughts exactly. My average purchase price is sub 50p, so my average yield is well in excess of 8%. I will have to replace the lost income if the bid goes through,

[carl79] 04/5/2011 19:06

That was why i bought 1fox1...a divi play with potential upside of a takeover...still, I dont lose out with the deal and i have other opportunities for the money but i would not have minded a nice 5-7% on my original stake for the next couple of years AND then a 30% capital gain...hey ho

[carl79] 04/5/2011 13:40

thx...but why would they mention it in the offer? We were getting the 2.7 anyway, they've done us no favours...does the divi not come from the company's own coffers and so the offer is only 53.3 - saying it was 56 is misleading?

I have perhaps missed a trick...think i have actually

[lord gnome] 04/5/2011 12:57

Nope - you get 56p minus the 2.7p divi. So we will now get the balance of 53.3p per share. Sorry to disappoint.

[carl79] 04/5/2011 11:02

Sorry, I thought that the Divi was being paid for out of the take over? Or do we still get 56p in addition to the 2.7 divi??

[lord gnome] 04/5/2011 08:40

Ex div - keep up man :-))

[carl79] 04/5/2011 08:39

Why the drop?

[harleymaxwell] 03/5/2011 21:25

i guess the trade off comes down to a hurricane that could send the share price down to say 40p or less and a really cheap offer ensuing or take a slightly lower price now but with better long term security for the business.,,,
if you are part of the business ie management then you go for the latter....

[this_is_me] 03/5/2011 17:49

Effordless must be on the board of directors or someone who will eventually go bust if he thinks that the offer is a fair price.

[effortless cool] 28/4/2011 22:20

To wit:

London-headquartered international broking group JLT issued a positive trading statement for the first four months of the year, despite reporting a negligible effect on competitive market conditions from the string of natural catastrophes.

[effortless cool] 28/4/2011 21:19

You're a sensitive soul aren't you, Little Beaker.

And the point you make is wrong.

[praipus] 28/4/2011 19:21

ABC Arbitrage I notice have a holding here I'm tracking their and other arbitrageurs holding on the "Tracking the Arbitrageurs" thread.

See post 136 for ABC's other holdings.

[little beaker] 28/4/2011 17:04

Effortless Cool (post 1846 and thereabouts), what are you on about?

I made my point clearly in one simple sentence that even someone like you could understand. Let me spell it out one more time for you in 6 words:

INCREASED PREMIUMS + SECTOR RE-RATING > 2011 CATASTROPHES

Geddit?

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HDU rejected a 1.5 x NTAV bid from BEZ - incorrectly IMO. Now, CHU directors have undersold the company: they should have got a similar multiple to that which HDU refused. It's a better market to that which BRE was acquired last year and also CHU has a niche market position vs BRE; CHU was simply hit by poor investment performance rather than underwriting performance. Still, looks like this deal's going to go the distance.

Other insurance companies rallying; HSX breaking out, hitting new highs, CGL, BEZ, AML, NVA moving to retest highs and at dividend-adjusted highs. Lloyds ILVs still trading at a discount wrt. long term P/NTAV; I still see value in the sector although now diminished somewhat with too much capital still swishing around.

Btw, I don't even own shares in CHU and haven't for a couple of years.

[this_is_me] 28/4/2011 14:14

When I bought (3 lots) at an average price of 50 -51p it was because I thought that all insurance companies were u8ndervalued. ( Yes I have holdings in others) I was expecting that the yield would drop to around 5% giving a share price of around 80p so I am annoyed that the directors have given away the company at the current price. It seems to suit the directors to do so. What salaries and bonuses will they be on after the takeover? What about the influence of Aberdeen asset management on the board. What are they and Mr Aberdeen himself getting out of it? I have been investing so long that i have become cynical about deals like this one.

[effortless cool] 26/4/2011 14:52

Why do you think it looks like a done deal when the biggest shareholder has come out publicly against the deal?

[peterz] 26/4/2011 14:23

Looks like a done deal!

Oh well a bit of profit better than none.

[carl79] 26/4/2011 11:50

Check the financials tab on advfn and scroll down to the dividend section...simples

[harleymaxwell] 25/4/2011 20:42

interesting webcast on the hanover website= talk a lot about the great value Chaucer bring to the game!

[effortless cool] 22/4/2011 08:01

edmundshaw,

Uunlike LB, you get it!

Regarding your other scenario, it's clearly possible but, I think, very unlikely.
- Chaucer's been 'up for sale' for some months now, so any interested parties should have been flushed out.
- Due diligence of an insurer is complex, so it's unlikely that anyone entirely new to the process will get to a position where they can make an offer within the timescale allowed by the existing offer.
- There will have been some hard negotiating with all interested parties before the Board recommended this offer. Other parties in the process could have got that Board recomendation by putting an extra penny on the table this week, so why add 3p next week?
- You've got to imagine that management and staff are happy with a trade buyer with no existing London business, so they are not incentivised to look for a white knight.

[edmundshaw] 21/4/2011 22:25

by the bye, there is another scenario, which is that another bid comes in, say around 60p which the management cannot therefore support without the penalty clause being activated; but as long as there are enough uncommitted votes to go against the current bid, the current bid could fail without cost, and the higher bid could be accepted in due course.

Not holding my breath, though.

[edmundshaw] 21/4/2011 22:21

Pamplona have done OK. I only got in around 46p. Though other insurers have done better for me over the last year or so. Sadly, Chaucer were more exposed to Japan than I could estimate from my research. Beazley, for example, were proportionately less exposed.

Agree the sector is less inspiring at present, though imo there is still some long term undervaluation & decent yields if you can avoid known exposures to recent cats and over-zealous underwriting. But only talking about perhaps 20% or so (imo), against which one needs to balance the risk of weak rates and writing of business due to the poor economy, and of course the possibility of a dire claims year. Unless you can stock pick effectively in this sector beyond looking at the obvious ratios and past performance (something which I cannot), perhaps not the best time to get into the sector?