Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[fangorn2] 18/3/2014 11:04

Might be a good opportunity to get some on the cheap.Have been watching this one for a while since Edison first touted it - missed it so possibly a second bite at the cherry in the offing.

[soupdragon55] 18/3/2014 11:03

Fangorn, doubt it too, but who knows how Putin's mind works, he went for Georgia first, now Ukraine. Kazak isn't exactly the most straightforward place in the world to operate. Hence the political uncertainties denting the share price

[fangorn2] 18/3/2014 10:57

Cheers Daniel.An interesting read.

@Soup. I'd be surprised if Putin is looking to move into Kazakhstan. Crimea makes sense.Ukraine East is pushing it - Kazak would be a bridge too far imo.

[joan of arc] 18/3/2014 09:52

No he won't go after Kazakhstan, he's not after a land grab. It's all about the Military. He wants to make sure that he will never lose his one and only warm water naval port.

[soupdragon55] 18/3/2014 09:09

More than just copper price, Putin annexing Crimea doesn't help as there are more Russians in Kazakhstan, General fear is that he will seek to reign in other states, particularly the profitable ones.

[danieldruff2] 18/3/2014 08:56

A lot of people taking profit when they can as the copper price goes on a temporary wobble. Bound to happen now and then over the 10-20 year lifespan of Kounrad!

Couple of well balanced articles

[fangorn2] 18/3/2014 08:41

That's quite a drop this morning.

Not followed this one for a while.

Any thoughts on what's behind it

Chaars

[danieldruff2] 12/3/2014 13:45

Yet at the same time, if LME copper stocks keep depleting at the present rate, all the copper will be gone in 6 months - you would have thought it would deplete faster as the price falls. Interesting to see what happens.

[soupdragon55] 12/3/2014 13:29

Copper sell-off following China bond default brings market to four-year low

Foundations of the copper market shaken after China's first domestic bond default stokes investor worries over financing

[danieldruff2] 27/2/2014 15:33

Posted by oregano on the WTI board with regard to results from KAZ - mentions CAML

I've copied the snippet but don't know the original source:

Kazakhmys (n/r) Annual Results. Negative. A total loss for shareholders of $2bn (down from a loss in 2012 of $2.3bn) is not a good result for the business. Copper cash costs of $3.28 per pound make KAZ marginal at best at current copper prices and vulnerable if copper trends to our long term assumptions of $3.00/lb. Guidance for 2014 is not much improved with cash cost guidance of $3.13 - $3.30 for the year. Of interest to us from an industry perspective are the cost and grade of the capital projects Bozshakol and Aktogay which both grade grade 0.3% copper and have capex bills of $2bn and $1.5bn respectively. This is indicative of a structural shift in the copper market where major growth projects are likely to be at far higher cost in the future. We are encouraged to see a proposed review of the portfolio and the disposal of mature assets. In our view Koynrat is a prime target for such a disposal and would do very well in the hands of Central Asia Metals.

[cfro] 11/2/2014 13:54

Thats interesting news nw99, thanks.

Should certainly help the bottom line...

[henryatkin] 11/2/2014 09:30

As I see it the effect here is that operational costs will fall in GBP terms but it won't effect the commodity price of copper. As we are a much lower cost producer than KAZ we won't get the same level of benefit but it must improve our EPS so broker upgrades to be expected.

[henryatkin] 11/2/2014 09:11

nw99....thanks for the head up.
hxxp://en.tengrinews.kz/finance/Currency-devaluation-in-Kazakhstan-25939/

Starting from February 11, 2014 Kazakhstan's Central Bank decided to stop supporting the tenge exchange rate, decrease currency interventions and stop interference with shaping the tange exchange rate, the Central Bank announced.

The new exchange rate is expected at 185 tenge for 1USD (up from 155 tenge for 1 USD).

Given the high importance of the currency exchange rate, the National Bank has been maintaining the rate at 145-155 tenge for 1USD. It enabled to maintain economic stability. The country's GDP grew by 6% in 2013, with the inflation rate hitting record low of 4.8%.

The Central Bank elaborated that Kazakhstan's economy is closely integrated into the global economy and the National Bank should take into account the situation in the global financial and commodities markets.

Among the reasons behind the decision the Bank cites the lingering uncertainty of the Russia's rouble. Back in 2013 the rouble weakened by 7.1% against the US Dollar, with the downward trend persisting in January 2014.
Another reason was the state of the Kazakhstan's balance of payment. Despite the current account surplus, there has been an increase in imports, including imports of consumer goods.

Besides, Kazakhstan has been facing high devaluation expectations. To prevent excessive volatility, the National Bank has had to intervene in the currency market.

To further slash down the inflation rate to 3-4%, the National Bank plans to shift to inflation targeting, with the measure calling against tight regulation of the tenge exchange rate.

Not to allow destabilization of the financial market and the overall economy, the National Bank sets a new fluctuations corridor at 185 tenge for USD1 plus/minus 3 tenge with some measures to level fluctuations in the short term. In the longer run, the tenge exchange rate will be defined by macroeconomic factors, the statement reads.

For more information see: hxxp://en.tengrinews.kz/finance/Currency-devaluation-in-Kazakhstan-25939/
Use of the Tengrinews English materials must be accompanied by a hyperlink to en.Tengrinews.kz

[nw99] 11/2/2014 08:33

Kazakhmys up 18% after Kazakhstan currency devalued. Country peer Central Asia Metals not yet reacted to the news. #KAZ #CAML

[cfro] 10/2/2014 10:59

Great to see this hitting new highs today. :-)

[grahamhacker] 01/2/2014 09:05

DanieldruffMany thanks for that, I had seen mention of the remaining 40% but was uncertain of timing! but rereading the rns I guess we may be talking about the first 1/4 this year.Your input much appreciated will certainly look to investing on Monday

[danieldruff2] 01/2/2014 08:48

Don't forget that to date, CAML results are based on owning 60% of the project, so the numbers are what you get from 6000t of copper - a 5% yield at 160p

Once the deal fully goes through to own 100% of the project (for which 21 million shares will be issued to Kenges Rakishev) - the figures will show the benefits of 10000t of copper +1000t from the new equipment. Also once that deal goes through, the company are likely to either expand the current processing unit to 15000t a year or build a second unit to go up to 20000t. I suspect they will go up to 15000t. It will take a year or three for that to happen, but if it all comes off I suspect buying around this level will get you an effective yield of 10%+ when the price moves up to reflect expanded production.

FWIW - broker ratings:
Cacccord 245p
FinnCap 234p
Investec moved up this week from 214p to 230p

[grahamhacker] 01/2/2014 08:08

I am looking at investing but the Jan outlook statement is only suggesting a less than 5% increase in production for 2014 & the share price looks to have this small increase fully priced in. Has anybody any thoughts on where extra revenue/profits might be achieved going forward. I like everything else I read. Many thanks for any input

[soupdragon55] 30/1/2014 16:30

Could it squeeze and ATH at the close?

[henryatkin] 19/1/2014 10:39

For anyone interested, there is a new thread for the base metal sector which might be worth popping in occasionally - BASE:

[danieldruff2] 18/1/2014 18:55

Another minesite article singing the praises of CAML

minesite.com/news/central-asia-metals-finds-favour-with-strong-production-and-big-payouts-to-shareholders

[philo124] 09/1/2014 15:19

Great, should have topped up on news.

[skinny] 09/1/2014 15:00

If at first you don't succeed!

07 Jan 14 Central Asia... Canaccord Genuity Buy 170.63 245.00 245.00 Reiterates

09 Jan 14 Central Asia... Canaccord Genuity Buy 170.63 245.00 280.00 Reiterates

[danieldruff2] 07/1/2014 18:57

Our CEO joins the board of Wolf Minerals

www.investegate.co.uk/wolf-minerals-ltd--wlfe-/rns/board-changes/201401070700139906W/