Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[jfishy55] 16/4/2019 21:39

Thanks Casual,

From what I can see in the annual report:
1) royalties are included in AISC (p.78 AR)
2) Can't find any info on the profit share, so I think you may be correct on this one (and this is the biggest one so that needs to be factored in)
3) Agreed, $21m non-Egypt exploration costs need to be added in
4) I didn't consider the solar project as it is just being looked at & not given yet so it's hard to say what effect it will have and over what time period to become cost positive but it should certainly be considered.

Thanks :-)

[eeza] 16/4/2019 21:22

The only people who make money in metal shares are the Crims who control the metal price.

[eeza] 16/4/2019 21:18

Exactly.
The clue is hidden in clear view in the phrase EX div - i.e it trades WITHOUT the dividend on Thursday.

[jfishy55] 16/4/2019 21:13

Zang-dook - this is my info:
EX-DIV DATE: 18 April 2019
RECORD DATE: 23 April 2019

[plat hunter] 16/4/2019 20:19

*waiting for the bottom is not the same as calling the bottom.Always leave something in for the next man.

[plat hunter] 16/4/2019 20:18

Waiting for the bottom is not the same

[adg] 16/4/2019 19:43

Yes I will get my crystal balls out

I have been in shares for 30+ years and made/lost some hefty sums

One thing I am 100% certain of though is if anybody actually manages to call the “bottom” they are simply lucky.

No matter what anybody tries to dictate and calculate the bottom of an share price they are simply guessing - unless of course the share goes bust to zero!

[plat hunter] 16/4/2019 19:21

Who cares about the dividend here.. Market volitily cancels that gain out amd you'll only be buying i to the cash that will get stripped from the share price anway.Wait for the floor then buy

[zangdook] 16/4/2019 19:09

also: Thursday is ex-dividend therefore you have to hold at close of market on Wednesday, not Thursday, to get the dividend.

[zangdook] 16/4/2019 19:07

jfishy55 32048

"1) Thursday is ex-div day (if you hold at close on Thursday you are entitled to div)"

No. Thursday is ex-dividend day, so if you hold at close on Wednesday you are entitled. If you buy on Thursday it's too late.

[zangdook] 16/4/2019 19:04

adg 32047

ex-dividend is 18 April, not 24 April.

[lukehold] 16/4/2019 18:27

Nice post, what price will you be able to get in at if production is on track

[casual47] 16/4/2019 17:47

The profit is not correct.

1. 3% of gold net smelter sales is paid as royalty, that's before any profit share
2. There is a 55%/45% Profit share with EMRA
3. The AISC figure does not include non-sustaining expenditures, e.g. exploration budgets for their assets in other countries, certain corporate level expenditures etc. are on top of the AISC figure.
4. Not sure where the solar energy project sits cost wise and whether the cost will be shared with EMRA but that will hit the cash also.
5. Sustaining costs for Egypt are shared with EMRA (55/45) but get settled, I believe, at end of year. Though management already makes a "best guesstimate" when they make their monthly payment to EMRA. There may be some credit or some debit due at the final end of year tally.
6. Non-sustaining costs to do with the Egypt operation get settled with EMRA over a three year period. So some of these costs will be accounted for this year against CEY and they won't be able to claw back EMRA's share (45%) until three years later (though same goes with such capex in past years so swings and roundabouts). These costs are on top of AISC.
7. Any costs that are borne by e.g. the subsidiaries in other countries are of course not shared but 100% for CEY alone and are on top of the AISC.

In summary:
-AISC by itself does not cover all costs
-need to multiply profit from gold sales by (0.97x0.55) to arrive at the post-royalty (97%), post-profit share (55%) figure.

[jfishy55] 16/4/2019 17:27

As I gear up towards buying CEY, here's some conservative (used lower guidance figures) numbers I've put together from the FY accounts. I'd be interested if anyone disagrees with the numbers or if I've missed anything / got anything wrong:

Q1: 105,000oz, $950oz AISC, $1280oz avg gold price realised
= $33.6m profit

FY: 490,000oz, $950 AISC, $1280oz avg gold price realised
= $161.7m profit

Cash at start of year $322.3m (adjusted for 2018 final dividend of $34.6m = $287.7)
Interim 2018 dividend cost $28.9m
Final 2018 dividend cost $34.6m
Total 2018 dividends cost $63.5m

So it looks like Q1 alone will cover the H1 dividend & see an increase.
With H2 production scheduled to be much higher than H1 CEY should pay a significantly higher final dividend.
This implies a significant rise in the share price and also the yield.

This is dependent on:
1) gold price
2) production being met

I do have these concerns as well:
1) Thursday is ex-div day (if you hold at close on Thursday you are entitled to div) AND the last day of trading before Q1 results...and the price has been pretty soft leading up to it..
2) Don't profit warnings come in 3s?! I think there have only been two?

So I'm waiting until the Q1 results to confirm things are on track. If they are I'll be buying, if not, I won't :-) Unless anyone wants to convince me otherwise?

[jfishy55] 16/4/2019 17:23

As I gear up towards buying CEY, here's some conservative (used lower guidance figures) numbers I've put together from the FY accounts. I'd be interested if anyone disagrees with the numbers or if I've missed anything / got anything wrong:

Q1: 105,000oz, $950oz AISC, $1280oz avg gold price realised
= $33.6m profit

FY: 490,000oz, $950 AISC, $1280oz avg gold price realised
= $161.7m profit

Cash at start of year $322.3m (adjusted for 2018 final dividend of $34.6m = $287.7)
Interim 2018 dividend cost $28.9m
Final 2018 dividend cost $34.6m
Total 2018 dividends cost $63.5m

So it looks like Q1 alone will cover the H1 dividend & see an increase.
With H2 production scheduled to be much higher than H1 CEY should pay a significantly higher final dividend.
This implies a significant rise in the share price and also the yield.

This is dependent on:
1) gold price
2) production being met

I do have these concerns as well:
1) Thursday is ex-div day (if you hold at close on Thursday you are entitled to div) AND the last day of trading before Q1 results...and the price has been pretty soft leading up to it..
2) Don't profit warnings come in 3s?! I think there have only been two?

So I'm waiting until the Q1 results to confirm things are on track. If they are I'll be buying, if not, I won't :-) Unless anyone wants to convince me otherwise?

[adg] 16/4/2019 16:49

I think timing is there or there about - bad news out, pretty limp forecasts for this year, easily achievable or bettered imo.
Will never get it timed perfectly - only the very lucky do - may fall a bit more from here but imo that'll mainly be dependent on POG
Small 2.3p dividend (ex 24th april) and results next week could be mildly surprising which may nudge share price back towards 90p+
but could always be further bad news of course in which case its a further drop

[cinquepercento] 16/4/2019 16:28

Plat: re the floor is not far away:

So now,you feel that this will not continue to mimic the drop in May 2018.

Interesting.

[cinquepercento] 16/4/2019 16:08

WBecki: Re:Titanic:
So,if your were offered a first class cabin on the Titanic,you would buy it because it was half price. :-)"


Presumably YES because they'd have no knowledge that it subsequently sunk!!!


So First Class at half price would indeed look

Thank you,for your response,Wbecki.

I am trying to think of an appropriate response to your response. :-)Hmmm. I am thinking;don't rush me.

Meanwhile,unlike the Titanic,this share will probably eventually rise again at least for a while but first it will take on more water,I think.

[borisjohnsonshair] 16/4/2019 16:07

Are you Egyptian?

[borisjohnsonshair] 16/4/2019 15:59

Really - have you been on the mine? Output up is it.

[plat hunter] 16/4/2019 15:56

not really.. multi bagged on AQP and then LMI as well after their subsequent 100/1 offering and up 40% this year on Sibnaye.

Whether you're down or up, depends more on your entry and exit. Some buy high and some sell high.

Good news for you though, is that if I'm here, the floor isn't to far behind.

[auson1] 16/4/2019 15:51

Plat Hunter,

Tracking Gold today, you must be used to losses if you've invested in Plat

[plat hunter] 16/4/2019 15:44

because it falls more than the value of the yield.