Cenkos Securities Share Discussion Threads

[speedsgh] 27/9/2016 08:58

Loss of mandate. finnCap are replacing Cenkos as Nomad/broker to ClearStar (CLSU)...

Change of Adviser -

[speedsgh] 27/9/2016 08:46

From Interim Results released by Panmure Gordon today:

"...continued market volatility following the result of the Referendum poses significant challenges for the medium term"

[topvest] 22/9/2016 20:51

History has shown that Cenkos is a good buy at below a £1 - I think that they will bounce back. Quindell was not good for them, but its hardly a business wrecker either. The accountancy firms and legal firms don't die on one nasty issue and nor will Cenkos. Lets face it lots of shareholders actually did quite well out of Quindell. Its not as if the company even went bust.

[leedskier] 22/9/2016 10:53

My take, for what is worth, is that the capital requirements rules which were imposed by the EU in 2011, but which are fully supported by the BoE, see today's FT which reports the BoE saying that post brexit the rules will if anything be tougher, changed the game for these small cap/AIM brokers/market makers. Now it is all about risk management not risk taking. They aim to run flat books. The consequence being that there is no technical liquidity being offered by these banks, leading to price volatility, usually to the downside.That is clear from a glance at the charts of the O&G companies. These banks cannot complain that these companies are not raising money in the capital markets when their shares are trading at less than 5% of their price 5 years ago, nor that investors have simply given up with this segment of the market.Britain's decision to leave the EU is irrelevant to the share price of an O&G company, paid in $. If anything the weaker £ should have boosted the attraction of these companies.

[speedsgh] 22/9/2016 10:49

hi imranawan. yes, the directors have substantial holdings so it provides some reassurance that their interests should be aligned with shareholders. in fact their "eat-what-you-kill" performance-related strategy means that the whole company is incentivised to improve things. the performance-related strategy also helps to maintain profitability even when revenues drop substantially (as they have just done) as costs tend to fall away just as quickly. we all know that CNKS operate in a highly cyclical sentiment-driven sector so periods like they are currently experiencing are to be expected.

whilst i am not planning to add at current levels for personal reasons, i suspect that those who do will see a decent return on their investment over a 3-5yr timeframe. the average dividend over the last 5yrs has been 11.1p. if replicated that would of course given a very decent yield at the current share price (100p) over the period. even half that return is not to be sniffed at in the current low-interest-rate environment. and who knows how long that will last?

PS - i find the following website quite useful for analysing director shareholdings + recent director trades for various companies.

[imranawan] 22/9/2016 10:25

Thanks speedsgh. Another point to note, is that management have significant skin in the game: hxxp://www.cenkos.com/investor-relations/shareholder-information

According to my calculations Hodges, Durkin and Wells own 21% of the company, so have a significant investment in the company, and will want to improve performance.

I was shocked at how bad the results were, but think there is some value in Cenkos. They need a deal or two - but we've known that for a long time.

[leedskier] 22/9/2016 10:24

Poacher45 ... "After brexit"?That will take at least two years!

[speedsgh] 22/9/2016 10:21

Interesting excerpt from FT article on yesterday's results...

Cenkos profits plunge as fundraising drops -

"...Cenkos’ business model rests on the strength of its relationships with a handful of senior fund managers at large institutions, such as Lansdowne Partners, Woodford Investment Management and Invesco, which owns more than 14 per cent of the broker.

The broker relies on a few key individuals, relatively low overheads and an “eat-what-you-kill” strategy that is highly-geared to performance. Its deal-driven approach means that it is more vulnerable to market downturns and does not have the same level of corporate retainer fees to rely on in more difficult times as its rivals, such as Numis..."

[poacher45] 22/9/2016 10:12

At £1 a share market cap is 56 million. They have 20 million in cash which they have to hold for legal requirements. Even if it is a really bad year and they only make 4 million there are not many companies in such a strong position. Also they have just opened there Singapore office which could deliver good profits. Once the British market stabilises after Brexit this should really motor.

[garycook] 22/9/2016 04:54

If CNKS,is very expensive.Why have you not sold,if you are a shareholder.Also what is the present NAV ? Seeing the poor results the share price has held up quite well,and with big buyer,s of 20,000 shares.So somebody see,s upside around the £1 mark.ALL IMO.DYOR

[quepassa] 21/9/2016 22:01

Just really poor results in my view compared to previous years.

Getting involved with Quindell was not helpful to the reputation and what are, in my opinion, the now withering prospects of this financial boutique.

Slashing the half-year dividend by a humungous 86% from 7p to 1p is jaw-dropping.

This does not portend well for any final dividend.

Quite easy to guesstimate what the final divi will be.

If you add the actual half-year divi of 1p to a guesstimate final divi, the share is very expensive in my opinion.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[topvest] 21/9/2016 21:32

Results are pretty good really; stayed profitable despite virtually no big deals. Much better than Panmure Gordon. Doesn't this tend to validate their business model? Just need a few big deals before Xmas for a better H2. Definitely a hold at this level for me.

[topvest] 21/9/2016 21:32

Results are pretty good really; stayed profitable despite virtually no big deals. Much better than Panmure Gordon. Doesn't this tend to validate their business model? Just need a few big deals before Xmas for a better H2. Definitely a hold at this level.

[mister md] 21/9/2016 10:02

well I sold my holding today on those results
Generally find it better to add to my winners than average down on losers, especially with there being good dividend payers still out there

[speedsgh] 21/9/2016 09:41

No real surprises in today's interims imo. Was expecting pretty dire + that is exactly what they have reported hence the lowest interim dividend payment for a good while. One might argue that they were better off not paying an interim div + retaining the capital but the way the company's incentive scheme is structured means that paying a dividend is always high on the agenda.

All eyes forward now. Will continue to monitor announcements to see if the company can peform in line with the CEO's slightly more optimistic take on H2 pipeline + possible fundraisings. Not too much evidence of it to date (bearing in mind we are nearly half way thro H2 already).

[leedskier] 21/9/2016 09:19

It will get worse for these small cap/Aim brokers unless and until they restore investor confidence in the companies they service.

[garycook] 21/9/2016 08:56

Topped up.It cannot get any worst,than that at present.Jim Durkin stating that things have picked up for the 2nd half.It can only get better from here.More buyer,s than sellers at present.Biggest seller 10,000 Shares.Buyers of up to 21.000 Shares.QP you must be shorting CNKS,best of British mate.50p is a bit harsh,but you state that to panic investor,s to sell.Stay in the Premium section !!!

[quepassa] 21/9/2016 08:46

"Profit before tax decreased by 91% to GBP1.7 million (H1 2015: GBP18.6 million) and profit after tax decreased by 96% to GBP0.7 million (H1 2015: GBP14.6 million). Our basic earnings per share ("EPS") fell by 95% to 1.2p."


Woops.

But perhaps not surprising.


50p here we come????




ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[salpara111] 21/9/2016 08:27

Well that was much worse than I had expected.
I sold most of mine at a loss earlier in the year and have dumped my final holding today.
It is very clear that without a really big IPO they are never going to make any serious money.
I guess that I should have bailed my final tranche after the Cenkos fine.
They seem to be absolutely desperate and willing to take any work they can get their hands on at present.

[chrisdgb] 21/9/2016 08:26

Reading the annual report last week, the directors certainly did well on the spike in revenues, such a drop off now..!!

[speedsgh] 20/9/2016 10:55

Agreed, spooky. Cenkos have been trying to gradually move higher up the value chain (hence AA & BCA Marketplace IPOs) but the transition will take years + will certainly not have been helped by their association with the Quindell debacle. Time will only tell whether that proves to be a temporary or permanent set back.

[spooky] 20/9/2016 10:18

Not really the sort of company you want them to be involved with.

[speedsgh] 20/9/2016 09:02

Some possible work in the pipeline for Cenkos following this announcement on Friday by SKIL Ports & Logistics (SPL). Cenkos are currently Nomad + broker to SPL...



"The Board currently estimates that to complete the Karanja Terminal in line with its preferred specification £36 million of additional funding is required. The Company can confirm that it has instructed advisers to commence work on a proposed placing and open offer (the "Fundraising") to assist with meeting this funding requirement. There can be no certainty that the Fundraising will proceed, nor as to the quantum, pricing, or timing of any such Fundraising."

[qs99] 19/9/2016 15:28

ok at, let's see what update looks like, think by last year it is due this week?