Cenkos Securities Share Discussion Threads

[imranawan] 31/3/2016 11:07

Are you still invested here speedsgh? I also read the Numis update which sounded positive.

[speedsgh] 31/3/2016 10:58

Interesting comment from Investors Chronicle today...

"The value of firms around the world attempting an initial public offering in the first three months of this year dropped by 67 per cent to $13.2 billion; the volume also dropped by 38 per cent year on year to 173 deals, according to data from Dealogic. The technology sector leading on the way down, off 77 per cent, and only one deal, for China’s Zheshang Bank, was for over $1 billion ($1.7 billion). Not only were these the worst figures since 2009 but the number of IPO withdrawals hit a new record so far in 2016."

[garycook] 31/3/2016 10:45

Spreads been opened by Market makers 125-133.But can sell 128,and buy 130.

[speedsgh] 31/3/2016 10:40

Numis have today issued a Trading Update for the period to 31/3/16 in which they state that "equity issuance activity has remained relatively strong during the period. We have completed 27 equity transactions, including 10 IPOs, so far this financial year and have a number of corporate transactions which are due to complete in April 2016 and beyond."

So NUM appear to be navigating the current market with some success. Remains to be seen if Cenkos can as well. Without going thro my records it feels like there has been far less activity from Cenkos compared to the corresponding period last year.

[mister md] 31/3/2016 09:36

very disappointing shareprice movement here lately ...

[quepassa] 23/3/2016 21:15

Your post dated 30th October when the share price was around 180p.

"... took me a week to grab a bunch of shares in the company from the MMs .... and in doing so the price pumped up to settle back down .... MMs are short of stock here IMO."


Now 140p.


If you don't think timing is important, suggest you stick to putting money in the bank. Shares are clearly beyond your grasp.

QP

[keith95] 23/3/2016 20:39

?

Dream on ... 6p dividend tomorrow paid early from a month ago while earnings are the second highest in Cenkos history ... Meanwhile banks are more than suffering ... In this down turn and Cenkos with no debt is holding up well. I was happy to add this morning having bails a bunch at 158 a month or so ago.

Only an idiot refers to timing over events that are random to an external observer ... While a numpty witters on about a 1p final dividend having not read the RNS pointing out a 30p buyback equivalent and the seven pence final dividend.

so why not read before spouting rubbish?

[keith95] 23/3/2016 18:11

"One particularly notes the one penny final dividend which is paid once the new and less attractive Taxation regime on dividends comes into force."

... to be added to the 6p already paid in advance tomorrow - to avoid the new regime.


Try and read numpty.

[quepassa] 23/3/2016 17:55

In my opinion only, I would not be surprised if this goes sub 100p in the not-too-distant future.

Sector outlook remains very uncertain in my view.

One particularly notes the one penny final dividend which is paid once the new and less attractive Taxation regime on dividends comes into force.

One can but wonder to oneself if the dividend payouts from Cenkos will be as generous going forward as they were in the past.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[bozzy_s] 23/3/2016 17:35

Thanks loudenr, you're right;

2014 H1 EPS 31.2p

2014 H2 4.0p

However in 2013 H2 was stronger:

2013 H1 3.9p

2013 H2 10.3p


I guess as long as they hit ~30p for the year, whether in H1 or H2, they're fine. It does however put pressure on H1 2016. The expectation is, based on 2014 and 2015, that nearly all earnings will be in H1. If they don't look like achieving 30p in H1 they need to tell the market.

Really didn't see this negative coming. Such a sudden shock, half year EPS 96% below previous 6 months, and 75% below same period last year.

[muangsing] 23/3/2016 13:45

Is H2 eps lower because they accrue bonuses for the full year in H2?

[loudenr] 23/3/2016 13:41

All, the 2nd half eps dropping is consistent with previous years so nothing out of the ordinary

[salpara111] 23/3/2016 12:52

Yeah I just noticed that they pretty much made no money in the second half of last year which is very alarming given that they seemed to have a pretty active second half.
I am particularly annoyed as I continued to hold having been reassured by their recent "in line " trading statement.
All I can say is that if they felt that the second half of last year was "in line" then we have very different views on what "in line" means.
It is pretty clear that without a really monster deal like BCA they are going to struggle to even break even.
I am out for a pretty hefty loss.
Clearly if they win a really big mandate like BCA I would look to reinvest.

[bozzy_s] 23/3/2016 11:24

Roughly break-even in H2 2015 then (H1 EPS 26.1p, H2 1.1p)

So if that new level carries on in 2016 we can expect EPS of around 2.2p for the year, suddenly making the P/E ratio a lot less attractive.

I didn't see this coming. Surprised no trading update to say 6-monthly EPS had dropped by 96%.

[jbat] 23/3/2016 11:04

Let's see where the Brexit referendum leads us - it might case serious disruption to CNKS business, or it might lead to a feeding frenzy - who knows?

[keith95] 23/3/2016 09:46

Robsy2 - The level of debt is impressive too ... p/e ratio tiny ... a few have panic sold this morning ... but currently sitting on a 10% divi with the current price.

[keith95] 23/3/2016 09:12

Caught some biscuits this morning .... :)

[speedsgh] 23/3/2016 08:30

Final Results -

OUTLOOK
Despite challenging market conditions since the start of 2016, there continues to be good institutional demand to fund high quality companies and ideas. Since January we have been engaged in a number of significant fund raisings for clients and our current pipeline is satisfactory given the current market environment.

DIVIDEND
The Board proposes a final dividend of 1p per share (2014: final dividend of 10p per share). This makes a total dividend of 14p for the year (2014: 17p)... Subject to approval at the Annual General Meeting to be held on 17 May 2016, the final dividend will be paid on 27 May 2016 to all shareholders on the register at 29 April 2016.

[robsy2] 23/3/2016 08:16

I like the shareholder returns record here. The earnings are very lumpy but the cost base is flexible too.Earnings and cash generation are impressive.No mention of pending litigation,plenty of cash, new opportunities in Singapore, AIM / London is a massive centre for fund raising and market making and they are big players.
They need a big deal a year to keep things moving along. They should be able to do that.
R2

[salpara111] 23/3/2016 08:13

Well it made £20M profit on the back of a market cap of £80M and net cash over £30M so I not sure how much cheaper it can get.
Sitting on a hefty loss but not willing to quit given the large covered divi.
I guess it really does depend on how things go over the next 6 months.
If they can steady the ship I guess they can rise from here but that is the great unknown.

[keith95] 23/3/2016 07:45

Market will probably throw the biscuits out of the Pram on the back of the fall in profits ... But this strikes me as a well run business.

[johnthespacer] 23/3/2016 07:42

1p final Dividend paid out in May