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|halibut51: I don't normally post on this board, but my usual haunt seems to be devoid of CSU posters at the moment!!
I held shares in Glissen (GLI) earlier in this year. Their share price was trading at very similar levels to CSU. They had an agreed cash takeover at 140p a share. So I would anticipate that a successful bid for CSU ought to be in that sort of region. Taking EPS as 9.5p then the suggested takeover price would be 15*9.5=142.5p. By coincidence this is a very similar figure to my expectations.
However, the share price is bound to trade at a significant discount (such as at the current 78.5p) until an agreed bid is made, and a failure to agree is likely to result in a fall in the share price. The bull points are that there is more than one party negotiating, the initial share price movement indicates that there are serious bidders in the ring, the weak £ means that overseas (eg American) bidders would find CSU relatively inexpensive) and importantly (like CFX) the shares are dominantly held by relatively few holders so an agreement with them will guarantee a successful take-over.
Having just over 39k shares in CSU I am particularly hopeful for a successful takeover at a good price, and whilst failure to agree a price would be very disappointing I have great expectations for the company's future should a deal not be struck. My reading of the accounts is that the pension deficit is not going to be major stumbling block, there is loads of cash, a good 15% profit margin, a rapidly expanding business and importantly they are a major (dominant??) prestige player in their areas of operations. Furthermore, as the BP Gulf disaster was mainly blamed on equipment failure, I would expect equipment maintenance and repair in the future to be given much more importance than now.
Having decided on the price, the next question is what would the timescale be for getting cash for our shares? I would anticipate a maximum of one to two months for negotiations and for bidding until the best and final offers. Two months for due diligence, shareholder meetings, court agreements etc. Then another month for the share trading to cease and cash paid. Say payment in October??|
Castle Acquisitions share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange