Carnival Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 10/1/2014 09:04

It would appear that the £25 ceiling has been breached again ; hopefully the absence of shipwrecks and too many norovirus outbreaks will see this finish the yr back at £30.

[broadwood] 23/12/2013 09:10

We are sailing, we are sailing ..

[wad collector] 20/12/2013 16:04

They probably went to the same pub, discussed it together with the same envelope then tore it down the middle and went off to write up their reports.
I suppose this site will never be enthusiastic about brokers ; people who invest through managed portfolios tend not to spend their time on here.I had a broker trying to persuade me to use his company to manage my portfolio on the basis that he was a pro and I was an amateur and could not devote so much time to stock watching and advice. However no broker is going to be able to keep an eye on one set of stocks with so many clients. I would rather be responsible for my own mistakes and Selftrade's fees.

[bluebelle] 20/12/2013 14:35

MIATA
Incredible when you think of the cost of those two sets of analysts producing diametrically opposed recommendations !!!

[broadwood] 20/12/2013 14:11

Right, no comments about scousers then. Promise.

Small chuckle.

[miata] 20/12/2013 14:08

Still wet behind the ears.

Karl Burns Associate Director at Panmure Gordon April 2013 – Present Liverpool
Past: Equity Research Analyst at Shore Capital - September 2007 – March 2013
Education: University of Liverpool 2004 – 2007, Fazakerley High School 1997 – 2004

[broadwood] 20/12/2013 14:02

1770p target price? I'll gladly take that bet.

Must have recruited him at the job centre.

[optimist] 20/12/2013 10:32

Half a cruise up in 2 days :-)

[broadwood] 20/12/2013 09:54

Or rather, full steam ahead!

[broadwood] 20/12/2013 08:32

Off to the races.

[broadwood] 19/12/2013 22:04

Carnival has cruised to the top of a FTSE 100 buoyed by overnight news from the US Federal Reserve on its bond buying programme.

The company has suffered from a host of problems with its liners running aground and suffering engine fires, but in its latest update the company said it expected to record fourth quarter revenues of $3.7bn, compared to expectations of $3.58bn.

That was enough to push its shares 120p higher to £23.12

[wad collector] 19/12/2013 21:46

Well maybe not quite love , but at least a bit of affection.

[broadwood] 19/12/2013 14:32

Market loves these 4th qtr results.

[miata] 20/11/2013 09:00

XD today, 25 cents. Along with Next, Sainsbury, Tate & Lyle and Vodafone.

[wad collector] 24/10/2013 21:13

It would appear that the share price has finally turned a corner , providing Capt Scettino has no emulators.

[miata] 08/10/2013 17:03

Capt Schettino made a point of going below to change out of his captain's uniform and into civilian clothes, allegedly in an effort to blend in with passengers when he abandoned ship before the evacuation was completed.

[miata] 27/9/2013 11:06

27 Sep 2013 Carnival PLC CCL Investec Buy 2,106.50 2,100.00 2,550.00 2,350.00

[wad collector] 25/9/2013 12:45

Ah well...have to stay long with these for longer.

[miata] 25/9/2013 12:17

Morgan Stanley

Yield outlook disappointing. CCL guided to 1H14 yields -3% to -4%, and we now assume F14 yields +1.5% (-2.5% 1H, +5% 2H) vs. +3.5% prior (1% on yield
~$0.17 to EPS). CCL would not commit to guiding to positive yields for F14. Our yield 'stack' and regional/ brand analysis suggest we are being a little generous.

CCL's yields are now 11% below 2008, a ~$2 potential EPS recovery. However, we question whether this recovery will be as smooth as its valuation implies given
the track record of underperformance and still fairly high industry capacity growth.

Cost outlook disappointing. CCL needs to reinvest in its physical product, distribution and marketing; it guides to another year of c4% net unit cost growth for F14 (1% on cost ~$0.10 to EPS), with MSe at +3%. Essentially,
modest yield growth will not quite offset cost pressures, so, net of FX and fuel moves, EPS seems likely to be flattish yoy in F14. Note, 2015 will see an ECA fuel regulation hit of up to $0.35 (we assume half this).

Valuation very demanding. CCL's dual stocks trade on P/Es of 22-23x F14e and 17-18x F15e, with FCF yields of 1% and 4%. The shares have held up well in the face
of significant earnings downgrades over the last few years, reflecting investors' increasing willingness to look through to a more normal yield environment. But "normality" keeps being pushed out, and even on F15 the shares look expensive to us. If wrong on yield growth and cost control, in our bull case we see +3% yield and $2.06 EPS in 2014e, implying 17x P/E.

[miata] 25/9/2013 12:16

Merrill
3Q13 results were less about 3Q13 or FY13E which were broadly in line with prior
guidance, but, more about the outlook / guidance for FY14. In this note we have cut our 2014E EPS by c.30% to US$1.49 from US$2.23, vs our FY13E EPS of US$1.54
and compared with current consensus of US$2.17. We now forecast 0.5% net yield
growth in 2014 (from +3%) and unit cost growth of 3.5% (from -1%).

While visibility still remains low for FY14 (c.50% for 1H14 & c.20% 2H14), initial indications were much weaker than expected on both net yield and unit costs. Net yields are expected to be down c.3% in 1H14 (similar to 2H13) vs. our previous expectation for around 0% and we now estimate 2H yields +4% vs. +5 to 6% previously. FY14 unit cost guidance excluding fuel is also disappointing with growth expected to be at a similar level to 2013 (c.3.5% vs. our previous forecast of -1%). We had expected some of the additional costs incurred in 2013 as a result of the significant disruption to reverse in 2014; this is not expected to occur. With every 1%pt change in net yield impacting group EPS by 16 cents 7% and every 1%pt change in units costs impacting EPS by 8 cents 3.5% then the twin impact of weaker FY14 expectations for both net yield and unit costs is material.

Notwithstanding ROIC being c.5%, well below cost of capital, we do believe book
value of US$31 or £19.40 is an important support to the shares.

While our belief in this stock has been shaken again, we do still believe this asset under improved stewardship has both the market position and scale to derive ROIC in excess of WACC and much improved margins. In 2008 (pre-crisis) margins were 18% vs. 9% currently and ROIC was 11% vs. 5% currently. We continue to assume that CCL
can return to these KPI levels by 2018E but, 2014 represents a delay. Our PO
reduces from £28/US$42.8 to £24/US$38.5 which reflects higher execution risk.

[aspers] 25/9/2013 11:58

Way oversold......these brokers talk through their backsides......still given me a great chance to get back aboard for the cruise of a lifetime ;-)