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Real-Time news about Carlton Res. (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|cpm: It's a 10 to 1 consolidation - shares divided by a factor of 10 and share price multipled by a factor of 10, working out exactly the same.|
|captain kurt: papaduke I agree...this is a good deal for both parties. I'm expecting CBM to motor now that the uncertainty about the bid is over and with it the CLN share price.
With CBM expected too trade about £2.50 very soon, the CLN share price will be worth 76p|
After all your statements that CLn is dirt cheap, that it is a cheap way into CBm and that the best thing to do is switch CBM into CLn, have a look at the posts below from the CBM board that shows a logical reason why you may be barking (up the wrong tree).
Tamtoni - 13 May'08 - 01:26 - 6962 of 6966
Phil - your post 2388 got me thinking properly.
Originally I thought that CBM would sell off WTN to get their share price up as far as possible before taking over CLN in a share for share deal thereby getting it as cheaply as possible. However, your reminder that Nemi effectively owns a share of the Belcourt Saxon JV got me thinking that it will be CLN acquisition that is completed first (and not because they are doing a good job at keeping its share price down but because CBM can extract most value for its shareholders this way).
My thoughts run as follows:-
Anglo own 65.9% of Peace River Coal (which has 50% of the Belcourt Saxon JV for which estimates of its surface mineable resource based on old data is 280m tonnes). Anglo is the operator and manager of PRC, so effectively calls virtually all the shots. Hillsborough Resources own 14.1% of PRC and Nemi 12% (the last two equity positions being diluted from 20% each late 2007 after both decided not to contribute all their pro-rata share of the $198m 2008 expenditure budget which I would presume is heavily influenced by Anglo!).
Doing the sums, Nemi's 12% share in PRC is worth $52.2m.
[Note: The Prefeasibility Report focusing on the Belcourt North & South blocks with annual production of 6m tones was due by end quarter 1 2008 but it has not officially come out (is Anglo delaying it?).]
It is logiocal to think that Anglo wants to acquire as much of PRC as possible and then also probably WTN's 50% interest in Belcourt Saxon.
So, to give it leverage to get agreement from Nemi to sell to them the 12% in PRC, Anglo buys CLN's 20% in Nemi once CBM has taken CLN over. [Note Nemi is not flushed with cash so probably could not buy the 20% itself.]
It then does a deal with the buyer of WTN for the other 50% of Belcourt Saxon, thereby reducing the acquirer's cost of acquisition whilst still leaving it a sizeable coal mining business that is planned to double production over the next 3 years.
If Anglo do not think that they can do a deal with the preferred bidder for WTN then they will just step in at the 11th hour and over-bid. After all, they probably have both the best idea of what WTN is worth and the greatest amount of synergies to extract and so can justify offering the highest price.
So in conclusion, it looks to me like the better place to be is CBM rather than CLN as CBM will realise greater value after the takeover even now after the respective price moves in the two shares over the past few days.
Sorry if this does not fit with everyone's wishes, but it does seem to fit the facts as I see them.
phil0001 - 13 May'08 - 07:21 - 6964 of 6966
Tam, I've always thought CBM was a better place to be than CLN but that's just my opinion. I don't agree that CBM is doing a good job of keeping the CLN price down. I think it's actually inflated the CLN share price because of the bid speculation, because I think CLN are struggling to make any profits this year due to long term fixed contract prices at lower rates. Namely about $60 for thermal and about $80 for Met. And they also need a fresh cash injection. If it wasn't for the bid I don't think the price would be as high as it is. Remembering that CLN was around 16p and trending down when the bid possibility came to light and they have about tripled from there.
With the Belcourt/Saxon deal it is possible we (WTN) could sell our half to Anglo and have a very healthy input of cash. Or we could buy them, or mine it together, we just don't know that right now. The delay is more likely to be from the upgrading of reserve estimates as more coal becomes cost effective to mine with the higher expectations for coal price going forward.
Tamtoni - 13 May'08 - 09:23 - 6965 of 6966
Good Points Phil.
For WTN my money is on the company being sold as this is the best way short-term to maximize the value of CBM's shareholding (plus of course Audley would probably like to crystalise some profits after all their hard work).
Re their development of Belcourt Saxon and the other properties in their stable, it depends on the timing of the cashflow from production, as it is quite constrained at the moment (note the loan a couple of weeks ago) and the aims of the Morgan Stanley preferred bidder.
The Anglo question revolves around who the bidder is and whether they agree at the same time to sell on Belcourt Saxon to Anglo.
If, as I expect, the bidder is an Indian or Chinese consumer then my money would be on Anglo over bidding .
Anyway, it looks like it is onward and upwards this week (hopefully my comment is not a commentator's jinx!).
|captain kurt: CBM could reach 180p within days.
3:1 ratio gives CLN share price conversion at 60p!|
|papillon: Tamtoni, the reason why CLN is not rising even though NEMI is rising is obvious. Its because of the pending CBM bid. Currently the CLN share price is inextricably linked to the CBM share price As I said before I believe the "market" expects a 1 CBM for every 3 CLN share offer and until that bid is confirmed (or the market gets a whiff of it being confirmed) CLN will stay at circa 20% discount to that offer. I should think the CLN bid will come before any announcement from CBM on their WTN stake if only because CBM have already made their intentions clear on CLN but not on WTN. We know that Audley want them to sell (and probably CBM want to sell) but while we know they have had offers there has been no announcement suggesting CBM are holding talks with anyone specific, concerning a disposal. Hence I cant see CBM selling their WTN stake in the very short term unlike the CLN bid which cant be far off.
PS whilst WTN is CBM's major asset by far its obvious that NEMI (though significant) is not CLN's major asset so you cant equate the price action of the 2 companies. Obviously the current bid situation is the key driver of the CLN share price|
|volvo: blueblood I totally agree.The EGB investment should have put 6pc on the CLN share price yesterday.As for the value of NNE it is trading near an all time high and its main investment is hard coking at 300 dollars per tonne.Are CBM trying to get these additional investments for nothing?.|
|papillon: I've had 2nd thoughts on this. Book asset value of CLN at 30/6/2007 was circa £60 million. 97.5 million shares in issue. Dividing £60 mill by 97.5 mill gives circa 60p. So each share is backed by 60p of assets (based on book value at 30/6/07). Assuming no change in asset value since 30/6/07 (thre will be some change) we should receive CBM shares to the value of 60p for each CLN share. Being offered the asset value per share of the company should be the minimum we are offered. Perhaps a higher price for future potential earnings of CLN should lead to a higher price than 60p being offered but I doubt it. I think I will be buying more CLN shares on monday. The only risk as I see it is if CBM and the sole Independent CLN Director cant agree a price suitable to both parties and CBM drop out of the bidding; in the absence of another bidder the CLN share price would fall back considerably even allowing for the recent rises in coal prices. I'd guess a good 12p of the current CLN share price is due to the bid factor but I think the risk that CBM dont complete the takeover is very small. I reckon we wont hear the final terms of CBM's share swap until after CBM sell off their stake in WTN. That should dramatically increase the share price of CBM which in turn will mean thay have to issue less shares to take over CLN!!|
|papillon: I know the coal price has kept on rising since the initial RNS about possible bid for CLN but before then CLN share price was only around 20p. Its this high because of the CBM bid interest. I reckon 1 CBM share for every 3 CLN. If CBM makes £1.20 before deal announced that makes value of CLN share 40p. It seems fair enough.|
|lefrene: pbracken, I was rather behind the curve, and only just noticed an article on another site which advfn doesn't want mentioned. But then I don't hold any CBM.
PS I would be quite pleased to see the CLN share price match that of CBM :¬)|
Why do people keep discussing WTN on the CLN thread?
Its because WTN & CBM are seen by many people, rightly or wrongly as a portent to CLN future performance.
Shareholders just love to live in hope. Alas, all to frequently in the junior mining sector hopes have little relation to reality.
You may not like the idea, but I think you will find it has a big bearing on the CLN share price, which is relevant to this thread.
Put another way if the CBM price shoots up, so will CLN, if only by association. Perhaps this is for the good, as it seems we are some time away from making a decent profit on the on the investment, which is one of the other ways of achieving a S.P rise.|
Carlton Res. share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange