Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[staylow1] 07/2/2017 23:12

That ?? Was meant to be a thumbs up :-)

[staylow1] 07/2/2017 23:12

Thanks for that ??

[kcsham] 07/2/2017 22:36

Staylow1, somebody's contribution on Morrison's discussion board is shown as follows: "Substantial fall in number of shares on loan just made public by Euroclear confirming trend seen in declarations above 0.5% made to FCA.Average number of shares on loan (the number of shares on loan is widely accepted as a proxy for the total short position) last month according to Euroclear was 16.54% of shares in issue (Dec 19.36%, Nov 20.57%, Oct 21.76%, Sep 22.57%, August 21.70%, July 21.77%, June 21.65%, May 21.25%, April 20.40%, March 22.12%, Feb 22.68%, Jan 22.31%)."While the percentage of short has decreased from 22.3% in Jan. 2016 to 15.8% to date. The share price of Morrison has risen from 140p in Jan. 2016 to 243p to date.

[gaffer73] 07/2/2017 22:33

They could be gambling on a poor set of results. Short the price down, if the results are ok, buy and close shorts. Results in 2 weeks so we'll find out soon enough.

[staylow1] 07/2/2017 22:00

Does anyone have any reference to the same size shorts on a company? I'm really interested to know what's happens to the stock price when shorted this heavily and the fundamentals turn good or bad. Who buys back first? Do they all have their fingers on the trigger waiting for one of the other institutional shorters to start buying back the shorts then they all jump in?I can only imagine they are all in some sort of collaboration??

[kcsham] 07/2/2017 14:29

Looking at the charts, I believe that I could wait for a couple of days and see how the share price goes.

[kcsham] 07/2/2017 14:19

Yes, the shorters have increased their bet on Carillion, but the price holding well, it could be an opportunity to get more. I am fully invested at the moment and I have no intention to sell any share that I am holding in my ISA. Shall I put some fund into my dealing account? Very tempting!

[w1ndjammer] 07/2/2017 11:18

The shorts have increased their position again, now 23.28%
interesting times ahead.

WJ.

[rcturner2] 07/2/2017 07:43

I have held this twice in the past, both times for a nice profit. I generally agree with most of the holders about the company being well run, but I cannot get past the shorting and the terrible chart. I don't mind missing out on a very low price, if momentum returns there will be plenty of time to get back in.

[wllmherk] 06/2/2017 19:46

I guess, like most here that are long, I'm under water with an average price of 239p. That seemed a good price at the time. Interesting debate here regarding the short interest in CLLN, personally, I've never shorted a stock, but, I don't mind shorters, they help create opportunity. I bought CLLN as I believed it is a well run company that pays a very healthy dividend, I've not read or heard anything since that makes me think it is no longer a well run company with a chunky dividend attached, therefore, I have a buy order for another tranche at 215p. I will continue adding to my holding as the price falls.

wllm

[edmundshaw] 06/2/2017 14:46

DbD, probably not... :o)

[death by donut] 06/2/2017 14:39

Could be down to there over use of the word 'probable' contract win in their releases.

DbD :0)

[jaf1948] 06/2/2017 14:01

Thank you for all your comments.

[wad collector] 06/2/2017 13:11

It is pretty amazing how little info is known about the shorting. There have been hundreds of posting over the last 2 yrs with multiple suggestions, explanations and opinions but ultimately it seems we are in the dark. I cannot recall such prolonged uncertainty on any other stock. The company did put out a statement early on about not knowing the reason , but I don't think they have made any more recent official comment.

[w1ndjammer] 06/2/2017 12:21

jim

with short tracker only showing positions above 0.5% i wonder how many
are holding short just under the threshold. could be another 5%
its worth being in these to watch how this plays out over the next few years.

its interesting the last time they reduced from 20% to 18% the share price went
from 220p to 300p now they have needed to increase to 23.18% to get
back to that 220p so there must be a few under the threshold.

WJ.

[jimbo44] 06/2/2017 10:49

JAF. The percentages quoted are shares not value. The market cap can go up and down but the short percentage will stay the same as the number of shares in issue does not change. If the company issues more shares than the % will drop. Similarly if they buy back shares the % will increase. Or the % will increase if new shorts are opened. The only question is how accurate is short tracker. I assume it is accurate.

[jaf1948] 06/2/2017 09:47

lonrho, thanks for that.

RCT, yes, you're right but I was just using an easy example - whether they pay full price or 2%, the logic stays the same.

[rcturner2] 06/2/2017 09:42

JAF, when someone shorts they do not pay the full value of the shares. They pay a pretty low % (2 or 3) to borrow the shares.

[lonrho] 06/2/2017 09:33

Short percentage should be the percentage of the shares in issue short.

[jaf1948] 06/2/2017 09:04

Now I know this is going to sound like a silly question, but is anyone sure whether the short % is actually going up. Let me give this example:

x shorts 5% of the company when there are 100m shares in total, the share price is £2 and therefore the market cap is £200m. He has thus paid £10m.

The share price drops to £1.50 and therefore the m/c is now £150m. x still holds a 5% short but the £10m he paid now represents 6.67% of the m/c.

My question therefore does short tracker now show x as 5% or 6.67%. If it is the latter, the percentage is just going up because the m/c is going down, not that there are more shorts.

Can someone clarify please.

[w1ndjammer] 06/2/2017 08:43

chart on short tracker now rising towards 24% its increased since start 2017
this is a very interesting situation.
Have bought half my quota, will wait to see what happens, 200p and i will buy
the rest.

WJ.

[sea and sky] 06/2/2017 08:26

If this ever comes off the shorters top list it could seiously rise prely on covering. DYOR but worth a punt.

[rcturner2] 06/2/2017 08:08

Carillion has the third highest yield in the FTSE 350 I believe, so income investors will be well aware of the company.

[jimbo44] 05/2/2017 12:28

20+% of shares are borrowed. A shift in sentiment they could get well squeezed forcing share price unnaturally high. A vain hope?

[spoole5] 05/2/2017 11:50

Yes in the absence of news that threatens the sustainability of the dividend there will be income seeking investors drawn to this. Recent upgrades to economic growth indicate meltdown that is being priced may not actually happen so expect orders and contract to be steady over next couple of years. Even at 3 quid these would only be on 8.5x earning and yield 6%. The question is at what price and yield are people willing to take on the risks that the shorters believe is there.