|Bouncing nicely today.
Underlying EPS shows a terrific progression - 106% growth in 4 years:
to Mar'18 - 12.61p (Singer's forecast)
to Mar'17 - 11.1p (Singer's forecast)
to Mar'16 - 10.1p
to Mar'15 - 7.9p
to Mar'14 - 6.1p
At 127p the current year P/E of 11.4 and forward P/E of 10.1 is pretty good value imho for a business showing such growth, notwithstanding the pension deficit which will fluctuate over time and doesn't affect CAR anyway for some years in terms of contributions.
Currency fluctuations will benefit CAR nicely this H2.
Given the growth being seen in all the divisions and the currency effect I suspect we may see CAR ahead of expectations for the year as a whole, but that remains to be seen.
PS : that's for hvs1 as I know he's keen :o))|
|its been two days since rivolting-do has posted a big old ramp
has he given up on trying to drum up business for this old tart of a share, lol
give it up son, no one's buying this tosh, lol
cutting a div to pay OAP's is never a markets favorite strategy, it stinks.
this wont be going nowheres for quite some time, lol|
|Lets hope the acquisition really is earnings enhancing to the required degree then, without the usual exceptionals appearing to hit the p&l.
Without the dividend I can't see any reason for this to go much above a p/e of 10.
Funds won't be jumping on, which just leaves pi's, who presumably will be looking for growth better than 10% in a growth stock.
I can't decide what sort of stock it is now, having held through all the Atmel stuff.|
|Not buying in yet
Too many things just don't 'smell' right in recent months.
So I fear there may be other sloppy issues to emerge.|
|Forecasts were at 11.1p EPS prior to today, and presumably will stay there given that today's acquisition is earnings-neutral to March'17 post-placing.
That's a 10% increase on last year. We'll have to wait and see what the interim figures are, and for the updated commentary for further signals. As I said, my feeling is that with H2 currency benefits CAR may well trade "ahead of expectations" for the year as a whole, but obviously that's a few months away yet.|
|'Which is 0% growth.
Someone care to enlighten me ?'
I do agree with that CAR's record and history another banana skim seems likely. 'Cept the placing is to fund an acquisition which *appears* to be very profitable.
The increase in share capital from the placing is accompanied by the increase in the profits from the acquisition (£1.3m) and reduction in debt.
As a result the EPS and growth forecast remains unchanged - there may be upgrades from improvements to forecast growth stemming from the acquisition and CAR performance aside from this,
|Although the timing has been unfortunate for CAR, I must say I'm not at all impressed with the way CAR have communicated around this pension deficit, distributable reserves and dividend issue. It's very vague and feels like they don't have a proper handle on it.
- when the divi was declared with the 7th June results the corporate bond yield was only 25% higher than it is today, and falling, so they should have known they were sailing close to the wind back then
- despite bond yields crashing in July & Aug they said nothing and even let the share go ex-div on 25th Aug. Indecisive?
- they then announce a Trading Update on 7th Sept with a bolt on piece indicating that a dividend is 'unlikely' if the bond yield situation remains the same by 30th Sept. Indecisive?
- in light of the narrative used in the 7th Sept update, no clarification post 30th Sept as to what the position actually was ahead of the scheduled dividend payment date of 7th Oct so we were left to wait and see
- even today they don't join the dots with a reference to the liability position. In the same paragraph they say "the Group's IAS 19 pension deficit is expected to have increased significantly" and then "As expected, due to the materially increased IAS19 pension deficit extinguishing the Company's distributable reserves"
Not long to wait before Interims on 15 Nov so let's hope they're as good as indicated but let's also hope that this 'dividend growth' aspiration is given some concrete clarity one way or another.|
|Well the growth part is certainly well hidden.
Forecast eps was 11p ish.
The placing is roughly 10% of shares.
So the eps is now 10p ish.
Which is 0% growth.
Someone care to enlighten me ?|
|Updates from Panmure
I suspect N+1 Singer's new 161p target is fairest, with more to come perhaps after the H1 results or on an H2 trading update.|
|Three broker ratings updated/reiterated today according to the N&P site:
161p BUY N+1 Singer
138p HOLD finnCap (target reduced from 150p)
190p BUY Peel Hunt
To be noted that Peel Hunt is the broker and the bookrunner for the placing of course.
Early share price reaction to the placing news is encouraging although cynics might wonder if recent share price weakness had anything to do with the placing.|
|Bouncing nicely now. No reason imo why CAR shouldn't go on a run up prior to the H1 results, which we now know will be good.
CAR themselves say today that the acquisition will be earnings-neutral this financial year to 31/3/17 (additional profits presumably set off by the additional shares), but after that PTD should be a big boost to profitability and to business growth given the new acquired customer base.|
|Certainly no reason to sell any based on today's update but looks like more patience required.
In case it does happen to be London's greatest 'secret' growth stock (per post 135) then let's hope it doesn't remain a secret for much longer! Ironic given the publicity generated by the dividend issue.|
Well I suppose that's one way to stop folks obsessing about the pension deficit. Interesting times.
Off the top of my head I imagine that the acquisition will be at least neutral and probably earnings enhancing if the Price/Earnings is as good as it appears from the headlines.
Should the shareprice dip towards the placing price I shall probably help myself to a topup despite the lack of a dividend,
|Excellent trading update today, with TP and LEDs not only doing well in H1 but looking very strong for this H2.
CAR also comment that sterling's weakness will further help H2. It wouldn't surprise me if the year end trading update saw CAR trading "ahead of expectations".
And an American acquisition too....funded by a placing at 120p. At a very good price, paying a maximum $6.5m for a company making $1.6m PBT.
More importantly, there could be huge cross-selling benefits:
"PTD has very strong technical relationships with several major medical OEMs including three of the global Top 20 medical device manufacturers, none of which are existing customers of Carclo. Approximately 90% of PTD's business is for the medical device industry."|
|watch the trends, not the days|
|think you'll find 120 got further away today...|
|120 getting closer, as predicted :-) !
|Pensions are becoming a major problem for companies...if deflation or no inflation will also make pension funds finding yield evermore difficult or dangerous in taking riskier positions.
|Is CAR London's greatest 'secret' growth stock....
"Are these London's greatest 'secret' growth stocks?
By The Motley Fool Oct 10, 2016
Plastics manufacturer Carclo(LSE: CAR) has seen its share value take a tumble in recent weeks, the firm's recent comments concerning a growing pension deficit taking a bite out of market appetite.
The number crunchers expect this problem to weigh heavily on Carclo's dividends for this year and potentially beyond. Regardless, I believe the company's exceptional revenues performance still makes it a terrific pick for growth investors.
Carclo advised in late August that its healthcare-geared Technical Plastics division has had "a very good start to the financial year," with additional volume wins leading the business to expand capacity in India. And Carclo commented that strategies to fill recent facilities expansions in China "are gaining traction."
Meanwhile, Carclo's LED Technologies arm -- which designs lighting for premium vehicles and supercars -- is also pulling up trees, the West Yorkshire company advising of "good product demand" and that "all of the current design, development and tooling programmes are progressing as planned."
Carclo has a terrific record of earnings generation in recent times -- indeed, the bottom line has expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 18.3% during the past three years -- and the City expects further double-digit rises in the medium term at least.
Indeed, earnings growth of 10% is forecast for the period to March 2016, and a further 15% advance is marked in for fiscal 2017. And these figures make Carclo splendid value, in my opinion, with the plastics play dealing on P/E ratios of 11.9 times and 10.3 times for these years.
And I expect strong growth in Carclo's end markets to keep profits rolling higher in the coming years."|
|I doubt the bounce in bond yields will come in time to save the end-September position, but if sustained and continued it should help with future assessments.
I don't know what the details of the Carclo scheme are, but in assessing pension fund positions I believe analysts often assume liabilities are linked to inflation, while 15-year corporate bonds are used as a proxy for the appropriate discount rate. So taking data from the Barnett Waddingham quarterly reviews I think we have:
ML Sterling Corporates AA, 15-year
BoE 15 year market-implied inflation
So between the end-financial year position (31/3/16) and the end-interim position (30/9/16) if the pension fund has the above characteristics it will have seen a big hit from the reduction in discount rate and a further smaller hit from the increase in long-term inflation expectations:
Discount rate moving indicatively from 3.4% to 2.3%
Long-term inflation rate moving indicatively from 3.0% to 3.2%
The data, and some discussion, can be found in the latest 2 quarterly reports:
|Thanks for clarifying sturmey
Thanks also rivaldo for the recent updates and the bond yields link which puts things in some perspective for me.|
|In my post of October 7th (Friday evening), I noted that a Carclo dividend has been credited to my TDDI trading account. I have been away from home since I checked my account then and only now (Monday evening) have I had chance to check my TDDI statement.
There are no Carclo dividends in my Trading or ISA accounts.
But I am sure they were there on Friday evening.
At that time, I noted down the cash balance of my trading account as £2,241. Today the balance is £1,814. The difference of £427 is exactly the amount of the Carclo dividend (21,900 shares at 1.95p).
The only explanation I can offer is that TDDI made a mistake by crediting the dividends that were originally scheduled for October 7th and then deleted the credits as soon as the error was spotted.
I apologise for raising your hopes (and mine). I genuinely thought that the dividend had been paid.|
|worth noting that this dog continues to fall
bit of a bargepole job at the mo, lol
stop with all the constant ramping rivoltingdo
markets don't like those kind of rubbish financial announcements, this aint going nowhere, lol|