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Real-Time news about Caracal Energy (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|dukedosh: Note from RBC:
Caracal last night published a reserves update; 2P reserves (on a working interest basis) in Chad have increased to 89.8mmbbl from 86.2mmbbl, in September. We do not expect this update, which continues to underpin our Tangible Value of 460p/share, to impact the share price today.
However, we note that continued drilling and seismic analysis has resulted in a remapping of the upside cases for Badila and Mangara, and downward revisions to their 3P estimates have offset a gain at Krim. 3P reserves are now estimated at 194mmbbl, down from 234mmbbl in September. Although not reflected in our valuation, the possible reserves were a source of potential upside for the company.
Looking ahead to the week commencing 24th March we expect Caracal's FY13 results update to include a production update; the Badila field was producing at the constrained level of 12,000b/d but we anticipate the newly completed Badila-6 well will boost output through March - each Badila well is currently contributing ~4,000b/d. In Q2/14 we expect flow test results from a production test on the Bitanda-1 well and news of the spudding of teh high-profile appraisal/exploration well on Kibea.
The YOY reserves growth is still a fantastic achievement, as is the story here which for me makes for a compelling investment case, but as we now fully come to realise, the numbers announced yesterday were already out there from previous NRs, so my initial excitement did indeed subside a tad today to business as normal. Still we can't reasonably expect reserves growth EVERY quarter, can we?
Maybe the RBC lunch presentation on Wednesday, along with the later announced reserves report was responsible for the increased volume over the past session or two. However, I was disappointed that the share price didn't improve more as this stock has de-risked some what since before the PP at 450p and BOD buys at 450p. Stock looks cheap by any measure today and is under most investors radar. As said before, we now look to the rather intense drilling campaign to deliver upside this year.|
|dukedosh: A week old but worth the read if you haven't seen these.
RBC Capital Markets Note on 20.01.2014
Caracal Energy (CRCL.L): Encouragement, but more details required
We initially expect a muted share price reaction to today's update as water handling issues resulted
in slower than expected production growth from Badila (14,000b/d now targeted by month-end), and
additional data are required to assess the impact of the Bitanda-1 and Mangara-6 wells.
Downhole logs indicate the Bitanda-1 exploration well encountered 38m of net reservoir in an Upper
Cretaceous M sand and 66m meters in the Lower Cretaceous D sands. The company plans to test the
well in Q1/14. The 650mmbbl P10 case required oil to be encountered within numerous staked sands,
therefore we expect and any guidance to be towards the lower end of pre-drill estimates - we currently
include 36p/ share, risked, for a risked 140mmbbl (P50) prospect in our 733p/share Caracal NAV.
In December and January (to date) production has averaged 11,274b/d and output is currently averaging
12,000b/d. The year-end exit rate of 14,000b/d was not achieved as the development experienced water
handling issues; management says these challenges have been resolved with additional tankage and
the commissioning of the SPT. Caracal expects to produce 14,000b/d by the end of January and remains
on schedule for its first lifting in March 2014, some 560,000bbls. Mangara is due on stream in March.
RBC Capital Markets Note on 22.01.2014
Caracal Energy (CRCL.L): Site visit
We expect to 'refresh' our Caracal model on the back of this week's site visit to Chad. The company
has made tangible progress at Badila and Mangara since our last visit in 2012. Recent 2014 guidance
is in line with our current forecasts, so any revisions are likely to be to our long-term view on the two
developments, the Kibea discovery, which is scheduled to be appraised in Q2/14, the Krim discovery
and a reassessment of the 2014-15 drilling plan.
We have today revised our NAV to reflect drilling news from Bitanda-1; the well encountered more sand
than anticipated and a lack of (sealing) shales prevented the formation of traps. However, two zones -
the M Sands and D sands - warrant testing and each of these zones could hold ~50mmbbl+. The key risk
with these targets remains hydrocarbon charge, as it is difficult to distinguish on logs between oil and
the fresh formation water. We include upside/risk of +125p/-31p per share for the ~90mmbbl Bitanda
structure in our revised 728p/share NAV, which is down from 733p/share.|
|bingaxu: However I'm gonna be selling it if the share price doesn't in the next few days.|
Caracal Energy share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange