Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[40 fathoms] 23/4/2024 08:27

I am not sure this is all of the exciting news from Monument. In the CEOs LinkedIn post announcing this she says there should be more exciting news to share soon. They have a second program and other possible indicators that both of these programs might address.

[earwacks] 23/4/2024 08:02

Excellent summary again Fathom. It occurred to me that Monument could end up having a higher market cap than Cog at some stage. They did say they had some exciting news at the beginning of the year. I guess this is it!

[40 fathoms] 23/4/2024 07:27

Today's RNS confirms the Cambridge Cognitions equity in Monument Therapeutics is valued at @2.5 million based on the closed funding round. This compares to a carrying value of GBP65k. In addition the 12.5% top line gross royalty is worth considerably more than the equity. So at the mark from this recent funding round the value of Monument Therapeutics to Cambridge Cognition is in excess of 5 million. Should this or Monument's other drug enter phase II trials the total value will be significantly more than the current COG market cap.

Monument Therapeutics strategy is out-license Phase II drug development. So its possible, with a favorable outcome in this proof of mechanism trial, that in the next 12 months a deal could be reached with Pharma.

It is probably worth pointing out that Monument Therapeutics is not developing new drugs, its reformulating generic drugs and paring them with a digital biomarker to ensure they get to patients in which they will work. This should remove safety related risk from the clinical trials as these well known and widely used APIs.

[cerrito] 21/4/2024 08:22

Yes thanks from me as well,40 Fathoms, for the Monument Article.
I am going on the basis that COG did not contribute to the £1.5m and to me they seem optimistic talking about Phase 2 starting early next year. I see Monument ended 2022 with £1.2 m in cash but did a funding round in early 2023.
In the here and now, given that we were told in the January TS that the results will be out in April we should expect a Notice of Results RNS in the next few days

[earwacks] 20/4/2024 14:53

Great posts again Fathom. Thanks for that. Very interesting to hear the guy from Winterlight explaining the importance of Ai and its uses and integration.

[40 fathoms] 20/4/2024 12:10

Here is confirmation of the extra funding raised by Monument Therapuetics and it is to be used to take MT1988 in to the clinic, this has the potential to be very, very significant for Cambridge Cognition with it @25% equity stake and its 12.5% gross top line royalty. The also have a second biomarker and API for nueroinflamtion that is also about to enter the clinic.

"The funding kickstarts clinical development of MT1988, a novel fixed-dose combination drug for the treatment of cognitive impairment associated with schizophrenia. MT1988 has shown excellent pre-clinical results, with substantial cognitive improvement produced by the combination of these two, well- characterised small molecules. The combination is also designed to remediate a prevalent off-target side effect associated with many similar nicotinic agonists. Other combination products have successfully used an analogous pharmacological approach to improve side-effect profiles. For example, KarXT is a combination therapy of two muscarinic agonists for the treatment of schizophrenia that was the lead asset of Karuna Therapeutics, Inc., who were recently acquired by Bristol Myers Squibb for a total equity value of $14 billion2.

Schizophrenia affects around 20 million people worldwide1, however there are no approved treatments for the common and disabling cognitive impairment associated with the disorder. MT1988 is targeting these cognitive symptoms, which are extremely costly for society and profoundly impact the affected individuals and their quality of life.

Monument Therapeutics applies a unique novel drug development strategy, leveraging digital assessments of cognition to match patients with new pharmaceutical treatments. The first human study of MT1988 will begin within weeks. If successful, a Phase 2 clinical trial is expected to begin early 2025."

[40 fathoms] 20/4/2024 11:49

This is worth listening to gives a very good insight in to what Cambridge Cognition does, where it is going and the huge scope they have to grow. This is on a P/E of 10x next year ... truly, truly insane.

[40 fathoms] 17/4/2024 07:56

A useful tool for any Company that is registered in UK

[earwacks] 17/4/2024 06:35

Thanks for that Fathom. I don’t know how you find out this info, but gratefully received! Sounds like it could still make a useful contribution if a little way off. I find it quite extraordinary what some of these companies do and what they hopefully will contribute, probably before my time is up!

[40 fathoms] 17/4/2024 05:36

@earwacks - Given we have made the decision not to invest more cash in to Monument Therapeutics, I would not focus too much on the equity holding. In fact according to Companies House Monument issued new shares for cash on April 5th and that will have diluted our equity position further. However it also provides a valuation mark valuing our equity in Monument at over GBP 2 million vs a book value of 65k.

However the real value in this position to us is our 12.5% top line gross royalty. This is worth far, far more than the equity and cannot be diluted. In essence if Monument Therapeutics receives any revenue, be it drug sales or upfront or milestone payments we will get 12.5% of the proceeds without deductions.

[jasperlachat] 15/4/2024 11:55

Very exciting company/sector. Ridiculously low market cap. Unfortunately will be gobbled up by a private equity company at this meagre valuation. Then again everything is going cheap at UK plc.

[earwacks] 15/4/2024 10:53

Looking at Monument therapeutics pipeline this morning. ‘Neurology set to be in next decade what oncology has been in the last decade.’ Psychiatry and Neurology paths. Possible drug development in long Covid and schizophrenia amongst many. Disappointing to see this back at 52p, but if you have patience this could be very rewarding carrying 25per cent of Monument as well

[40 fathoms] 06/3/2024 13:31

@smithe6 - I think the next 18 to 24 months will settle the debate one way or another.

Leaving aside the healthcare opportunity for the moment. I would suggest you take a look at what is happening within the industry and keep in mind there are only 2, fully validated, providers of digital cognitive tests, Cogstate being the other and their are certainly only 2 that can deploy at scale and across multiple indications.

At the current time +90% of all cognitive tests in clinical trials are conducted via traditional pencil and paper tests, these are administered by a neuropsychologist (rater) who has to be additionally trained in the trial protocol (The current charge out rate for a rater Is between $600 and $800 per hour). There are many inherent problems with this approach, not least of which is test variability but also the cost of administration, which typically are only undertaken at a trial site. However, the digital tests are now fully validated in most indications can be administered anywhere and are now starting to make traction in many early stage trials. While these early stage trials are typically small and of low value as the therapy moves through the trial phases the value increases significantly. As an example Cogstate's largest contract to date was for $35 million for Lilly's AD Trailblazer Phase III, which should lead to the FDA approval of Donanemab any day now, they also have an order book of over US$ 100 million.

If this trend continues and the regulatory push towards decentralised clinical trials suggests it should, then the potential growth is enormous. However, given we are still coming off a small base it will be lumpy as one large contract won, lost or cancled can have a significant financial impact at this stage.

The other thing worth considering is that neither Cambridge Cognition nor Cogstate consider the other to be a competitor at this point. They claim they are almost never bid against each other for a contract and for various reasons this is likely to be true. Both say that their main competition is traditional pencil and paper tests and not each others digital tests.

So if we are at breakeven level now and if over 3 or 4 years we can double revenue we will be looking at a company that is producing EBIT of 10-12 million per year. We have a handful of AD trials that are currently in Phase II, if a couple of them move in to Phase III we would not need to win very much more new business to achieve a doubling in revenue.

[jasperlachat] 05/3/2024 11:49

“Criminally low valuation” - too right! The UK stock market stinks. If this is taken out at some paltry valuation (where I incur a loss) it will be the last UK stock I buy.

[earwacks] 05/3/2024 10:32

dull? Cog reached about £1.80 a few years ago having crashed to 22p at one stage. Back up to 1.30 and back down to 48p. Now rising. It was ‘dull last year like much of the market not in takeover talks. Spt today gone on a criminally low valuation. Our stocks are being stolen by wealthy American investors because they see value very differently. Plus they have 25 percent of Monument sitting pretty. If you want dull try vod, Bt or any British bank!
Why would cog need a heavily discounted placing?The loan note guys have options to buy more shares at 75p. That will be another injection of cash , slightly diluting the shares.
Read a report yesterday saying that 100 companies left the LSE last year either delisting or being taken over. Companies listed on LSE have reduced by 40 percent since 2008. Don’t know how true this is, but the implications for remaining quality stocks it would seem to me will become in very short supply

[smithie6] 05/3/2024 10:29

....one could debate whether it should be a listed company...& expected to grow or to pay dividends
...or be expected to just operate at break even, mostly providing a service to pharma companies for their drug trials

It's record so far as a listed company seems pretty dull to me.

The long term chart is a disaster imo. Looks a bit like a patient's heart monitor screen at a hospital, but over 10 years. Up then down, up then down.

[nchanning] 05/3/2024 10:16

This is on a knife edge , beat by a couple of million on revenue next year and it's a profitable , cash generative , high gross margin growth company in a very exciting sector . Miss by a couple of million and it's a perpetually loss making , indebted no growth company in need of an urgent heavily discounted placing

[lawson27] 05/3/2024 10:09

Quarterly breakout, GLA

[lawson27] 04/3/2024 16:10

Be nice to see this one break out of its recent trading range, GLA

[earwacks] 04/3/2024 12:01

I have the occasional look in as he does sometimes conduct a good interview, n
But his doctor like prognosis on chart reading is quite ridiculous, particularly on illiquid small caps that seem more inappropriate than bigger market cap stock. I did follow Alpesh Patel (ex barrister/stock analyst). He used charts more for momentum investing, which I kind of get, but still find it pretty micky mouse investing. Paul Scot says he has been approached by the board of Cog for an interview. Paul is interested in Cog to a degree but has been a bit wary of late. Seems to be getting slightly more interested again. I expect you are correct about sudden moves. Brett Gordon has increased his stake twice recently without much impact. I think it must have been an overhang from director sells in the acquired companies. Normally his buys would have pushed the stock right back up.

[40 fathoms] 03/3/2024 01:03

No, I don't follow him. Though I would hope that when we do finally break this range it will mover higher than 59p. My suspicion is that when we finally move up decisively it will be with a large and violent move. If no significant news has dropped before hand it will be with Ty confirmation with the annual results that we expect to return to profitability this year that will do it.

[earwacks] 29/2/2024 16:08

Anyone follow Zak Mir? He got this on his billboard hero the other day suggesting that it didn’t quite make the gap up on the 50 MA but should hit 59p in a few weeks if you hang some seaweed up and the wind is in the right direction. Great career that guy has made for himself. Love the cafe bit. So relaxed……;…

[40 fathoms] 26/2/2024 23:32

We have had one, possibly two, larger sellers since December. If it is AXA and/or 2312 North LLC today should have basically cleared them out. In terms of a T/O here I agree it is a real possibility but my suspicion is it would not be done cheap. Nigel Wray has a @15% holding and in effect the ability to block any approach and he is not known for giving things away.

I think the market will react once it wakes up to the fact that we will be pretax profitable this year and that after that, with our @+75% gross margins, it means the vast majority of any additional revenue falls straight to the bottom line.

Next year we are forecast to do revenue of 17.5 million and a PBT of 1.8 million and in the three years beyond that I can see no reason why we could not push revenue beyond 25 million (Cogstate are already doing more than this) and if we were pick up a large stage II or III AD trial then maybe we even through 30 million.

[bedford1976] 26/2/2024 19:10

What is baffling me today is apparently 716k shares have been traded. I monitor this share most days and it normally trades 7k - 35k on a regular basis. Seems a huge spike in trading but unfortunately no upward movement in the share price. Quite a disappointing day really.

[earwacks] 26/2/2024 16:50

It’s a sad truth that for whatever reason there seems little sustainable support for uk companies at the moment while the rest of the world market seems to be in overdrive. Paul Scott did make an interesting observation on the Dow suggesting that 6 of the top 7 stocks were actually realistically valued. Tesla being the only one significantly overvalued. Many uk stocks got taken over last year well short of their potential. My worry is that in a few years time if this continues there will be nothing left in the uk worth investing in long term. Be full of Vods BTs and crummy Uk financials. I don’t have a large variety of holdings but I would say over half run the risk of being taken out cheaply in the next year or two. This is certainly one of them