Calculus Vct Share Discussion Threads

[day_dreamer] 27/5/2004 16:06

Interesting L2 though...wins on 20p offer with next offer at 23p !
might always tempt a few on that

2 bid 19p as well.

Dont know anything about this company though

Gravy

[brain smiley] 27/5/2004 15:32

Mufmitz


The market behaves in a crazy way. If CLC had a fire then all the TECH shares would go down and there is no sense in this. Supermarkets have been under pressure and TSCO is just one of the casualties. I am quite confident that it will recover. It is only a matter of time before CLC hits 50p adn I buya new car.

All the best Keith Mumfitz.

[orange1] 29/4/2004 08:17

Ian
Good to hear it! And if you hear any more snippets of news or comment I would be grateful if you could share them with me.

Orange1

[jeffian] 28/4/2004 23:30

I'm not really in a 'predicament'; just sitting here waiting to see how things pan out. My serious investments go into 'value' stocks which make profits, have assets and pay dividends. This is just a bit of 'fun money', really. But just giving a bit of feedback on what I hear. The market really hates being sold a story by management which fails to deliver. Better to promise little and deliver more rather than promise the earth and miss!

Don't worry; I'm smiling!

Regards, Ian

[orange1] 28/4/2004 20:36

Ian

Thanks for the further elucidation.
So far only one contract has been lost. The others could still be won.
This is taking much longer than anticipated and the company has given an explanation as to why this is. As you say the question is: do we believe them?
Your broker and you clearly don't. Others might.

If I may say so, it seems to me that given that your broker put you into these shares and presumably wants to keep you sweet, it must be very tempting for him/her to blame someone else for the predicament you now find yourself in. Could this be behind your broker's attitude?

Orange1

[jeffian] 28/4/2004 17:31

Of course there are no guarantees about the granting of contracts, Orange1, but the issue here is the credibility of management. When they raised fresh equity by placing shares at 40p last August, this was supported by a circular to shareholders (like a Prospectus) which included the following:
"Commenting on the Placing and the Open Offer, Howard Kitchner, Chairman of the
Company said:


"We are pursuing 15open bids in respect of CV4, with both new and legacy
customers, one of which would be a very significant transaction. We believe
that several of these deals are predicated on the Group providing these
potential customers with confidence in the financial position of the Group,
which we believe that the Placing and the Open Offer will provide."

In drumming up support for the Placing, believe me that management were pretty bullish about the likelihood of contracts being won. Having got the institutions to stump up at 40p, only 3 months later they had to put out a disappointing Trading Statement and profit warning. In March, they put out a statement saying they had won a couple of small contracts in the first 2 months and expected to proceed 'at this rate' throughout the year which seemed to be generally interpreted as one a month expected. I gather the latest update to analysts in April did not impress. So that's the issue; management keep saying things then not delivering and there's plenty out there that just don't believe them any more.

Regards, Ian

[orange1] 28/4/2004 16:08

Ian

But what would CLC's side of the story be?:

We were only repeating assurances which had been given to us. We are as disappointed as anybody that the contracts have not (yet) come through, or

We gave no guaranteee that the contracts were in the bag. Indeed the placing document in the section headed "risk factors" made clear that no such guarantee was being given.

The fact is that neither of us was at the meeting so we can speculate to our hearts content. My suspicion is that the truth lies somewhere in between as is frequently the case.

I do not doubt that certain "city" bods are not happy with CLC but the exact reason why must remain a matter of debate. I maintain that they should not just blame the company but look critically at themselves.

It is make or break for the company now anyway and another fundraising could never have been a serious proposition even without the latest profit warning.

I notice that some blocks of shares have seemingly changed hands today. Some are being offloaded to be picked up by others with a more bullish outlook.

[jeffian] 28/4/2004 01:15

Hi Orange 1,

The issue here is not 'making a fast buck' but delivering on forecasts/'promises' made. Nothing in life is certain, but this company recently raised fresh capital via a Placing & Open Offer at 40p/share on the back of a story that the only thing preventing a raft of customers signing up to the new software was the financial security of the company, and once the balance sheet was shored up with fresh capital, contracts would be signed within weeks. Well they haven't been. 'The boys' I was referring to were more likely brokers/analysts, but I doubt the institutions who subscribed to the Placing at 40p are overimpressed either. Management has a real credibility problem now and once you've disappointed the market, you can't go back for more, so let's hope some contracts get signed before the money runs out.

Regards, Ian

[orange1] 27/4/2004 20:36

ian

thanks for your report. You say there are some very cheesed off boys out there. By that I mean that you are referring to big city boys. They are pretty much locked in at this stage in the sense that they would probably find it difficult to find buyers for their shares. I can't say that I have much sympathy for them though. From what you say it sounds as though they all wanted to make a fast buck and it hasn't come off in the way they had hoped. Well tough I say - sometimes it pays to do a bit of homework and not to expect everything to just land in your lap. CLC is/was a risky proposition and unless the directors were deliberately lying, which we have no evidence of, then this is just one horse that failed to win the sprint hurdles. Well there are more races (for CLC)and more horses out there (other shares). For me, I have been with this horse since the off and I am still sticking by it.
For your own personal position I have more sympathy but then again I might say that it pays to do your own research and not rely on others such as brokers too much. As for your rabbit in headlights analogy: there may be celebratory fireworks but there is unlikely to be a hunter's rifle. More like a lot of matches fizzling out before they manage to light the candle!

[jeffian] 27/4/2004 00:46

Orange 1,
Apparently the delayed brokers/analysts meetings were a non-event; more of the same 'lots of contracts in the pipeline but nothing signed yet'. There are some very cheesed-off boys out there. My broker has thrown up his hands and walked away (which doesn't amuse me as he put me into them in the first place) and I just sit here, like a bunny in the headlights, waiting to find out if the next flash in the dark is the celebratory fireworks from a big contract win by CLC, or a hunter's rifle putting me out of my misery!

Regards, Ian

[orange1] 26/4/2004 23:22

On 23 March house brokers Investec predicted EPS of 0.42p for this year and 5p for next. This did not lead to any substantial movement in the share price. Now a few weeks on trading in the shares has all but come to a standstill.
Which all suggests to me that the company\'s meeting with brokers and analysts passed off peacefully and certainly did not cause any institutional holders to dump the shares. With the company on a PE of 5 for next year, could buyers be tempted to dive in. Well it is fair to say that in in 11 years or so of acting for the company Investec have yet to make one accurate prediction. But their day must surely come. Will it be 2005?
The AGM is on 6 May. Maybe we will learn more then.

[orange1] 09/3/2004 15:51

Ian

Thanks for keeping us informed on the brokers' perspective. Any chance you could let us know in a month's time how the presentation went?

I notice that 2 non-execs are stepping down. The new brooms who will arrivce as replacements might sweep clean.

I certainly understood the company as saying that we could expect a contract a month or 2 every 2 or 12 in 12. Perhaps we need some TFC style RNS announcements for every contract and an army of RNS predictors/rampers posting on this thread. That should do the price some good!

[orange1] 08/3/2004 16:31

Dare I say it but my post 65 was unnnevingly accurate. Progress is definately slow and the 2 contracts announced in February was all the news that CLC had in the cupboard. So only 3 contracts since August that is slow indeed.

But as Shuffle Man says one can look on the bright side. The news could have been worse: more of the open bids could have been lost. As it is, of the 15 open bids talked about back in August only one has been lost, 3 have been won and the remainder are still open with 10 predicted for the rest of the year. Hopefully the company is being cautious with that prediction and the actual figure will be even higher. Would be nice if the biggie came through as well.

[the shuffle man] 08/3/2004 16:23

From todays results

Our immediate focus is upon delivering the open bids we have identified, all of
which are with prospective purchasers practicing renal medicine. We have won two
contracts in the first two months of thecurrent year and look to maintain this
rate throughout the year.


With reference sites in both the US and UK, your directors believe that the
Group is in a position to win more new business with CV4. For the current year
we continue to see our revenue growth being generated from the US renal dialysis
market where we currently have the majority of our reference sites and open
bids."

So one contract per month is not bad I think once people have digested these figures and we get a few more announcements these shares will start to rise

[jeffian] 27/2/2004 11:42

Orange1,

I think you're spot on. I agree with you. At broker briefings around the time of the fundraising they were talking of 6 or so contracts so I can understand why the reaction to this announcement is underwhelming. Let's hope for more on 8 March.

Regards, Ian

[orange1] 27/2/2004 10:43

Well I can't help thinking that having seen the bid price drop to 30p somebody got on the phone to CLC and asked what the @#?| was going on. Nothing untoward replied CLC we are making progress, albeit slowly. Call this progress enquired the caller, the price will be at - 10p if you don't get your act together and tell the world what is going on. But we are announcing our results on 8 March, all will be revealed then. Not good enough, tell 'em now. All right then, just the 2 contracts, we'll keep a bit back for 8 March as we had intended all along.

Something along those lines is my guess: ie the statement was forced out of them by the drop in the share price.

The statement in itself is encouraging in that CLC have acquired 2 new (and according to CLC siginificant) customers. But the picture needs to be completed on 8 March with regard to other prospects old and new. Have they been secured?
And what are the future prospects as of now?

[nilip] 27/2/2004 10:25

I can't help thinking that it may have been a better move if CLC had announced the 2 contract wins on the same day as the results ? to dampen the impact so to speak...

[jeffian] 27/2/2004 09:20

Phew! At last! But I'm not surprised at the fairly muted reaction of the share price; these contract wins were pretty well 'promised' at the time of the last fundraising at 40p and the fact that they were a bit slow in coming unsettled the market.

In view of the comments made in the trading statement on 4/11/03 (extract below), I suspect everyone will want to see what further statement is made with the results on 8 March before the shares motor ahead.

Regards, Ian

["4 November 2003

Clinical Computing Plc

Clinical Computing Plc (the 'Group'), the international developer of clinical
information systems for the healthcare market, announces that its turnover for
the year ended 31 December 2003 is expected to fall short of current market
expectations.

While the Group continues to pursue contract opportunities that are consistent
in value with prior announcements, the likely shortfall in turnover for 2003 is
the result of customers deferring their buying decisions as the Group focused on establishing reference sites and strengthening the balance sheet.

Although the Group anticipates closing several open bids before the end of 2003, it will not recognise all of the revenue associated with these contracts in the year ended 31 December 2003. According to the Group's policy, revenue is recognised over the course of the contract implementation period, which is
normally not less than four months."]

[nilip] 27/2/2004 08:15

These 2 contracts pretty much ensure/confirm CLC is making good progress this year.

As far as I can see we've certainly bottomed and it's looking positive from here on ...

I suspect the chairmans statement to accompany the results will reflect the positive upturn for this year with projected improvements - already visible by these contract wins...

[nilip] 27/2/2004 08:02

excellent news guys ...!

WE'VE FINALLY GOT CONTRACT WINS !

Looking to motor ...

__________________________________________

RNS Number:8945V
Clinical Computing PLC
27 February 2004


Clinical Computing plc -
Contract announcement and Notice of Results


Clinical Computing ("Clinical Computing" or the "Company") today announces the
signing of two significant contracts in the US in relation to its new Clinical
Vision 4 ("CV4") product.


The Company has signed a contract with Cardinal Health System a non-profit
hospital group located in Muncie, Indiana USA (www.cardinalhealthsystem.org).
Ball Memorial Hospital, the flagship of Cardinal Health System, has four centres
providing 2,000 treatments per month. The hospital serves as a tertiary
referral centre and teaching hospital for East Central Indiana.

In addition, the Company has signed a contract withPhysician Dialysis Inc ("PDI
"), of Eaton Pennsylvania (www.phydial.com). PDI is a growing for profit
dialysis chain. The group has 23 centres spread throughout the US. This
contract is phased and will lead to the installation of CV4 in all of PDI's
centres. The contract has a minimum term of three years.


Both contract wins bring new customers to the Company.


Commenting Jack Richardson, CEO, said: "Each of these customers represents a new
relationship for the Company. We look forward to assisting the growth of these
organisations with our CV4 renal dialysis product."

[johnv] 22/1/2004 14:23

Jeffian could be right about the reaction. last week I sold some merant on the nasdaq only 2k worth, yet it sent the shares down 6% within minutes.

[orange1] 22/1/2004 11:20

A lot of buys at 33p earlier this morning coming through now. The 2 ending in 334 caught my eye. These are people who started off with a holding in round figures such as 100000, then got 16666 in the recent 1 for 6 rights issues and are now increasing their holding to a nice round figure. Considered doing the same myself this morning!