||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Cadbury (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|topicel: Kumula - the £8.50 forecast right back in September has been achieved - there is a 10p dividend if you wait until April - and therefore my aims have been met.
If you take the current share price and sell you don't lose much, so each must decide what is going to happen next. Hershey may still go higher but after Kraft's bid has been recommended it would appear they've had no indication that Hershey can counter it, and therefore the game is over.
I'd be worried in Cadbury H.O. but that is global business for you. As for the SP, it could still climb to £8.50 later today - or more in days to come - as many times it settles above the agreed price at certain stages.
What will you do?
|topvest: I agree with the Cadbury-Hershey dual listed company as a great solution. Creates the no.1 chocolate company in one step. Quite tricky to put together in the timescales though I think.
The Kraft offer (even 10% more) makes no sense unless it is cash. The more they offer, the more the Kraft share price will bomb. It's difficult to see how Kraft can pull it off unless they have a master stroke, not yet played out. Somehow, I feel they must have something up their sleeve. It's all been very predictable so far. Kraft must have seen this coming..surely?
Anyway, not long to wait!|
|spob: Mandelson makes shock attack on US bid for Cadbury
Catherine Boyle and Dearbail
Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, today made an unprecedented attack on Kraft Foods' hostile £10.1 billion bid for Cadbury's, telling the US giant to "respect" the company, its staff and its legacy.
Speaking in Birmingham, where Cadbury was founded in 1824, Lord Mandelson told foreign buyers of British businesses: "If you think that you can come here and make a fast buck you will find huge opposition from the local population and from the British Government."
The Business Secretary gave his stark warning after Kraft published its offer document for Cadbury.
Kraft has been forced to go "hostile", which means it has approached Cadbury's shareholders directly, after the board of the British company rejected an offer.
Kraft goes hostile in £9.8bn bid for Cadbury
Cadbury hopes India will sweeten deal
Cadbury's chief prefers Hershey to Kraft
Based on Kraft's share price at December 1, the offer values each Cadbury share at 713p.
It is understood some investors do not want Cadbury to engage with Kraft without an offer of 850p a share or more.
Lord Mandelson said today that a foreign buyer for Cadbury would have to "respect our company, respect out workforce and respect the legacy of our company".
Investors are hoping for an approach from one of Cadbury's rumoured alternative suitors, which include Hershey, the maker of Reece's Peanut Butter Cups, and Nestlé, the maker of Kit Kat, to push up the price Kraft is offering.
While he said it was not up to the Government to block offers for companies, Lord Mandelson warned suitors and hedge funds, which have invested heavily in Cadbury: "We expect long-term commitment, not short term profit, to rule."
In today's document, Kraft has kept the term of its original bid broadly unchanged, which offered 300p and 0.2589 Kraft shares for each Cadbury share.
Shareholders have until January 5 to respond to the offer.
Cadbury has a fortnight to prepare its defence to the bid. It is understood that it will focus on the company's potential for long-term growth, particularly in emerging markets. It could announce its defence at a trading update due on December 15.
Cadbury's share price rose 0.2 per cent to 801.5p today, despite falling earlier in the day.
Kraft has already lined up $9 billion of funding from banks, including Royal Bank of Scotland, for the bid.
Irene Rosenfeld, chief executive and chairman of Kraft Foods, said: "We remain confident that the unique combination of Kraft Foods and Cadbury would create a significant growth opportunity for both businesses. That's why we believe this offer is in the best interest of both companies' shareholders.
"Our offer is fully financed, represents a substantial premium to Cadbury's unaffected share price and provides both immediate value certainty and meaningful longer-term upside potential."|
|eurochamps5times: What do you think this does to the share price for Mondays open? Which of the following is right?!!!
1. Hersheys offer is simply the 2nd stage of the whole affair, showing that rivals will not let the Kraft bid go unchallenged, suggesting that there is a lot of room left for a bidding war. Mondays opening price: Up.
2. At 730p per share, the offer isnt good enough to push the share price higher from the closing price of 800p on Friday but there is no reason to suggest a lower open on Monday as a new bidder enters the fray. Mondays opening price: Unchanged.
3. The offer shows that Krafts offer was reasonable and there is no reason to suggest that any offer will ever reach even the 800p per share mark. Mondays opening share price: Down.
I think 2 is the most likely outcome but I fear it may be 3.|
|spob: Kraft's offer showed contempt for Cadbury, says chairman Roger Carr
The chairman of Cadbury has described Kraft's offer for the confectionery firm as "in contempt of the market's expressed view" because it is so far below analysts' valuations.
By Kamal Ahmed
Published: 9:37PM GMT 14 Nov 2009
Speaking for the first time since the offer was made, Mr Carr made it clear that shareholders and the board were united in the view that the present offer was unaccept-able. Kraft announced a £9.8bn hostile bid for Cadbury on Monday which valued the shares at 718p. Because of market changes, this was a 4pc drop on the original offer which had valued the shares at 745p.
"It was mid-morning on Monday when we first received the proposal which proved to be an even more unacceptable price from the same unappealing source," Mr Carr said. "I've spoken over the week to a lot of the shareholders and have been very pleased by their feedback. I'm sure it must have been irritating for shareholders to receive the reduced offer which was clearly in contempt of the market's previously expressed views.
Kraft investors signal displeasure by reducing their stakes
Cadbury shareholders may yet warm to Kraft's 'derisory' offer
Kraft goes hostile with £9.8bn bid for Cadbury
Nomura tips Kraft to merge with Cadbury
Anna Mann is on a mission to get more women into the boardroom
Cadbury ponders Australian beverage sale"I firmly believe this to be a derisory offer from a company which sees Cadbury as a strategic solution to fill the gaping hole of growth in their business model."
Mr Carr's robust comments will increase speculation that Kraft will have to raise its bid significantly if it is to be successful. A number of hedge funds have extended their positions in Cadbury, judging that a higher offer is imminent.
Cadbury is now working on its defence document which will detail recent valuations of the business. An analyst's note from Bernstein Research, which has been circulating widely among Cadbury shareholders, said last week: "Kraft has some time before it must make its final offer . . . and we continue to believe that a bid of £9.00 (or close) will get management, and shareholders on board, and get a deal done.
"We consider that £9.00 would be a fair and reasonable price for both sides."
Mr Carr said that the board's decision to reject the offer was an easy one. "Since the original approach and following our recent excellent results, the value of the business had increased and the Kraft offer had reduced. It enabled the board to make a firm decision in a short time frame."
He said he was comfortable with the changes in the share register, with large funds such as Paulson & Co taking a 2.08pc stake.
"Some of the register has changed and some hedge funds that have had small positions have increased their holding," he said. 'That change has come [from] a number of what I would term very serious and responsible hedge funds. Evidently, they have seen a real value opportunity. They have a reputation for making a long term commitment. They know what good looks like.
"I believe what they see with Cadbury is the limited downside risk of holding a good quality company with sound growth prospects.
"I don't think they are foolish enough to let value flow through to the hands of Kraft who are clearly hoping to acquire the business on the cheap. I don't see these people letting that happen."
Mr Carr dismissed suggestions from Kraft sources that Cadbury would not be able to sustain its third-quarter performance which was welcomed by most analysts as being ahead of expectations. One Kraft source claimed Cadbury had "goosed up" the numbers.
"That is not the case," Mr Carr said. "Kraft didn't appear on the radar until the end of August."
Kraft chief executive, Irene Rosenfeld, has told colleagues that the American company has no need to "bid against itself" and that, given Cadbury's pre-bid share price, the offer is a fair one. As yet no other bidders have come forward. Mr Carr said that Kraft's analysis was "flawed".
"The Kraft view that there always has to be more than one bidder to determine value is a flawed concept. It completely ignores the fact that those people who own the company today understand the value of the asset and it assumes that they are foolish enough to pass that value to a third party.
"It is another measure of their contempt for share-holders. They bid an even lower price the second time around and they ignore the message they are receiving from the market they seem to be acting in a vacuum."|
|talon13: Kraft Foods is toying with Cadbury shareholders, Panmure Gordon reckons, after the US processed foods group announced a formal bid for the UK chocolate company that was effectively lower than the indicative one first made public two months ago.
The unchanged terms of Kraft's offer equate to 712p per Cadbury share or just 10 times the enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation ratio based on earnings estimates for 2010.
'Kraft still needs to offer a meaningful bid premium for Cadbury's shareholders to accept, and at the moment we view the premium as zero, given that Unilever is also trading at 10.0x EV/EBITDA for 2010E,' Panmure analyst Graham Jones said.
The broker has moved its target price down from 900p to 825p in the wake of Kraft's low-ball offer, and thinks the share price will tumble to around 700p if the bid fails. Panmure Gordon still thinks the odds are against Cadbury retaining its independence but the chances of surviving as an independent entity have increased 'from 15% to 30%'.
.........if the bid did fail and the share price only tumbled as far as 700 I could happily live with that. If Cadbury remains independent and can keep producing good numbers, the share price should trade up to 800 and beyond on its own effort anyway (at least that's my theory lol).
Anyone care to guess at how many short term speculators are going to become long term investors in this great company?|
|freemanure2: MoneyWeek viewpoint:- Apologies if this was posted earlier by someone else.
Market hopes are stretched far beyond reality
The Cadbury / Kraft bid saga shows just how far market hopes are stretched beyond reality.
Right up to yesterday's bid deadline, analysts and investors were clearly expecting Kraft to pull some rabbit out of the hat that would give them an excuse to drive the confectioner's share price higher from its already optimistic level of around 760p.
Instead, Kraft came back with an offer that suggested that, frankly, they can take Cadbury or leave it. The bid terms were exactly the same, which because Kraft's share price has fallen since the original bid was made meant that the actual per share value had fallen, from the equivalent of 745p to 717p.
Yet, the Cadbury share price is still hovering pretty much exactly where it was yesterday. You can read more about the background to the story, and what we reckon Cadbury shareholders should do now, in my colleague David Stevenson's blog on the topic, here.
What's perhaps more interesting about this bid battle is what it says about the bigger picture and the market's psychology right now. When this deal was first announced, the excitement in the City pages was palpable. This was the return of big deals, a sign that the recovery was on track.
Suddenly, Cadbury was a sleek national treasure, being stalked by this hideous, lumpen, American manufacturer of stringy cheese. Never mind that the confectioner had been trading at less than £6 a share before Kraft made its approach.
Sure, it's easy to uncover a new-found appreciation for something when it looks as though it's going to be taken away from you. And Cadbury's may well be worth a lot more than Kraft is offering, over the long run which is a good argument for keeping it independent.
The truth: Kraft can't afford to bid much higher
But there's a big difference between what you believe an asset is fundamentally worth, and what someone else is willing to pay for it. And the truth is that Kraft can't really afford to go that much higher.
As Rob Cox points out on Breakingviews.com, Kraft wouldn't have gone through with the formal offer if it wasn't serious about bidding. And there was no reason for Kraft chairman Irene Rosenfeld to up the offer in the absence of any rival bids this "would have amounted to [Kraft] negotiating against itself". So there may well be a higher bid, or one with a bigger cash component, awaiting Cadbury's shareholders further down the line.
There's also the temptation, once a bid battle kicks off, to get suckered into ego-driven over-paying. When bosses lose out on a deal, they tend to end up with egg on their faces, even if it's the most sensible option.
But practically speaking, there's not much chance of egotistic overpaying in this case. For one thing, the highly value-conscious Warren Buffett is a key Kraft shareholder, and he won't be keen to overbid for Cadbury's. And, as Cox points out, "Kraft can't raise its bid by much without destroying value or losing its investment-grade debt rating."
That's the last thing Kraft wants to do right now, with the global economy in the state it's in. For example, the reason its offer for Cadbury is worth less now, is because Kraft's third-quarter sales were disappointingly weak, sending its share price down. The group also cut its sales forecasts for the year. You don't want to overstretch your balance sheet in that sort of environment.
The City might be betting on the good times coming back, but companies like Kraft which can see how badly the consumer particularly in the US is suffering, have to take a more cautious view. That suggests that getting the bid up to even 800p might be a stretch. And persuading Cadbury's investors to accept that may also be tough.
Cadbury's shareholders should take profits now
So as David suggests, if you bought Cadbury's before the bid was launched, taking your profits now might be the safest option. If you have bought it since, hoping for a better deal, you might want to hang on for the next phase of talks. But bear in mind that there's an awful lot of potential downside if the deal falls through. Cadbury's shareholders might be talking up its value right now, but I suspect their new-found affection for the stock will vanish as rapidly as it appeared if no more suitors appear on the horizon.
|wad collector: CONSUMER GOODS
THE board of Cadbury was this morning readying itself for a last-ditch hostile bid from Kraft, the American food group, which is expected to table a takeover offer worth £10bn.
Kraft, the maker of Oreo Cookies and Dairylea cheese, has until 5pm under Takeover Panel rules to make a bid or walk away for six months.
It is expected the Chicago-based conglomerate will formalise its existing cash-and-shares offer for the British chocolatier. Worth £10.2bn in September, the offer now amounts to £9.8bn following the slide in Kraft's share price. The see-through value of the deal has fallen from 745p a share to 720p.
Roger Carr, Cadbury's chairman, has spent the past week lobbying shareholders to stand firm against a repeat bid. While Cadbury is determined to reject any offer short of a substantial hike to the original proposal, Kraft has lined up $9bn (£5.4bn) in bridge financing, enough to crank up the cash component of the bid from 300p a share to 400p if necessary.
Kraft believes several major shareholders will be swayed by an improved follow-up bid given the potential downside to Cadbury's share price should the US firm decide to pull out.
Shares in Cadbury leapt almost 40 per cent after it rejected Kraft's first approach in September. They closed at 58p as the deadline loomed
Not sure this tells us anything new.|
|kumala: By Lisa Buckingham, Mail on Sunday Financial Editor
Last updated at 10:36 PM on 07th November 2009
When the US food giant Kraft launches its (probably hostile) takeover bid tomorrow, Cadbury boss Todd Stitzer must ensure he does not become the commercial world's David Cameron - someone who might win only through the opposition's weakness rather than the power of his own argument.
Third-quarter results from Kraft last week pushed its share price lower, dragging down the price of the British chocolate maker as any takeover offer will be structured in shares and cash.
Some analysts have been suggesting a bid price of 900p or more compared with the 745p sighting shot from Kraft chief executive Irene Rosenfeld, who has helped Cadbury's price lower by stressing that she is not in a strategic bind and has no reason to overpay.
The above article is from the mail on line, I like two parts of this article, the first line "When the US food giant Kraft launches its (probably hostile) takeover bid" and the mention of "a bid price of 900p or more" £9 or more would make a lot of people very very happy.
|topicel: OK - it's still thought to be on. We shall see over the weekend no doubt, I'd be amazed if they let it drift up to the wire...
"Earnings: Kraft profit tops estimates, but revenue falls short of expectations
By Mike Hughlett Tribune reporter
November 4, 2009
* increase text size decrease text size Text Size
Kraft Foods Inc. posted third-quarter profit that handily beat Wall Street estimates Tuesday, but its revenue fell short of expectations, and the company reduced its sales forecast for the rest of the year.
The Northfield-based packaged-food giant recorded net income of $824 million, or 55 cents per share, down 40 percent from the same time last year when the company had a sizable one-time gain. Earnings from continuing operations increased significantly.
Still, the latest results surpassed analysts' estimates by 7 cents per share, though a few cents of that stemmed from a lower tax rate during the quarter, an "unsustainable" way of growing earnings, said Matt Arnold, a stock analyst at Edward Jones.
Kraft's revenue of $9.8 billion was down 5.7 percent from last year and below analysts' forecasts of $10.3 billion, as Kraft dealt with unfavorable currency trends and lower pricing because of falling commodity costs in some areas, including dairy.
The results were released after the markets closed. In after-hours trading Tuesday evening, Kraft's stock was trading at $26.73, down almost 3 percent.
The report comes as a Monday deadline approaches for Kraft to make a formal offer for Great Britain's Cadbury PLC. In September, Kraft made an informal, unsolicited bid of more than $16 billion, which Cadbury soundly rejected.
A falling share price could hamper Kraft's bid for Cadbury, because 60 percent of that deal would be financed by Kraft stock, or at least that was the stipulation in Kraft's informal offer. As Kraft's stock price falls, so does the value of the potential deal for Cadbury shareholders.
Still, one analyst said she doesn't expect Tuesday's results from Kraft to affect the quest for Cadbury.
"I really don't think it has an impact on Cadbury," said Erin Swanson, a stock analyst at Morningstar Inc. "I think they did what they needed to do -- post results that show they continue to gain traction," she said of Kraft's profitability.
In a conference call with stock analysts, Kraft Chief Executive Irene Rosenfeld said the company continues to assess financing options for the Cadbury deal and has been talking to both Kraft and Cadbury shareholders.
"Make no mistake, we will continue to follow a disciplined approach," she said, addressing concerns Kraft may overpay for Cadbury.
"Clearly, there has been a lot of speculation about what we can afford. But what we can afford is not relevant. What is relevant is what Cadbury is worth."
Although some stock analysts have said Kraft will need to increase its offer for Cadbury, the pressure on Kraft has lessened somewhat because no rival bids for Cadbury have materialized.
The strong third-quarter profit performance helped lead Kraft to increase its profit guidance for all of 2009 to at least $1.97 per share, from at least $1.93 per share. But Kraft lowered its 2009 forecast for organic revenue growth -- that is, not including currency swings or acquisitions or divestitures -- to 2 percent from 3 percent.
The lower revenue outlook primarily reflects lower-than-expected input costs, which have led to declining prices on some Kraft goods, the company said. Rosenfeld, in an interview with the Tribune, said that more than half of that expected decline stems from a "precipitous" decline in dairy prices.
The lowered sales outlook also reflects the company's decision to cut some unprofitable sales volume because of weakening economic conditions in parts of Europe, particularly Eastern Europe."
Still playing hardball then, and without doubt the share price will be crucial on both sides of the Atlantic. Kraft needs to go above £8.00 if they have managed to convince Cadbury shareholders no alternative bid is coming and without them the share price will drop back to £6.00-something, which is likely.
So, £8.25 may now do it providing up to 75% is in cash...
Any other thoughts as we approach 9th November deadline day?
Cadbury Schweppes share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange