Business Post Share Discussion Threads

[utsushi] 03/11/2005 23:45

horsemike, not sure about 500p, p/e 15x excluding exceptional charges is not exactly low given EPS will be -10% this year, dividend just covered, no real asset support, debt low though, free cash flow yield of just 2/3%, not exactly cash generative, cyclical business express/homeserve should grow as internet demand expands/plus deregulation, but UK PLC slow-down will hit and is likely to face stiff competition.

[horsemike] 03/11/2005 11:46

Well done Nabeel ... glad to see that you are in profit. Please don't be tempted to take this quick profit and sell. This share could be back to £5 if the results are better than expectations.

[nabeel4975] 03/11/2005 11:24

No matter how much the price rises, the buying continues unabated! Obviously still undervalued.

[nabeel4975] 03/11/2005 10:16

Thanks for the info Mike,

The share seems to be flying, I only bought yesterday and already covered the spread and made a decent profit.

From now on, I will only buy shares with the minimum BB contributions ;-)

[horsemike] 02/11/2005 23:09

The future of the share price lies I believe in how well the home postal service is progressing. We will find this out with the results on November 15.

Given the competition (Royal Mail) there is surely grounds for optimism that they will reach their 3% target ahead of time (end 2007). £150m turnover in this division compares to a sales figure of 233m in year ending March 2005 for the total company. So conservatively we are looking at something like a 50% increase in sales within 2 years. Now increased sales does not necessarily mean increased profits, but it certainly will transform this company.

This growth potential was reflected in the £7 share price. The profits warning (relating to business parcel service)has not changed this picture.

Thats why I feel the current price is undervalued. Broker projections of PE and yield are:-

Year ending 31/3/05 PE 26 Yield 2.9 Actual
" " 31/3/06 PE 15 Yield 5.4 Forecast based on price £3.45
" " 31/3/07 PE 11 Yield 5.8 " " " " "

I could be wrong, but I do not see them cutting the div in 2 weeks time. So here we have a share with value today and the potential for a return to a share price well above its current levels.

[nabeel4975] 02/11/2005 15:35

The drop seems to have been overdone, the warning was for 10% and the stock lost 50% of its value. Hoping for a recovery play, I am in at 360. Obvious takeover target, results in a couple of week (15 Nov), Div over 5%! Looks like there is good potential or am I missing something?

[elsworth] 01/11/2005 14:58

Level 4 has the share price marked at £1.77........its on a continuous decline

Hope it helps

[chiva20] 31/10/2005 10:31

Best short on the LSE in my opinion. Sorry HorseMike you may be right but you won't buck this trend, this is heading down and it'll drop a few more pence before it reaches the bottom, justified or not.

[long and short] 25/10/2005 16:17

horsemike - I think it could be all the employees and franchisees selling after the recent exercise of about 509,000 shares.

Also what is to say the dividend will be maintained?

If it gets to 200p I would be interested in buying.

[horsemike] 22/10/2005 20:55

I must confess that the continuing fall in the share price leaves me perplexed. We are now on a yield of 5.2% which should underpin the price. My informal discussions with one of their junior managers leads me to believe that the company continues to progress well. Finally, whilst the profits warning was bad, it was not dire and certainly did not justify the £3 fall in the share price

It seems to me that this is a gross over reaction to the warning and represents an opportunity to invest in a well run company which has an excellent chance of meeting their declared target of 3% of the £5.6 bn postal market by 2007.

For these reasons I have doubled my holding ahead of the results on 15/11 and intend to add more if they announce further good progress in capturing sales in the postal market business.

[scumdog] 21/10/2005 11:35

Little sign of the fall abating.

[ibpatel] 22/9/2005 08:27

thanks for the info ppl...

[long and short] 21/9/2005 15:28

Gucci

As profits have retrenched to where they were more than three year's ago, I guess the share price could well fall to where it was three year's ago.

Certainly the current share price is very high unless you believe the company will bounce back in the year commencing 1 April 2006. Personally, that may be a bit over optimistic in view of the slowing UK economy.

[gucci] 21/9/2005 15:15

I was looking at about 280p long and short

[long and short] 21/9/2005 15:04

Even for a takeover, the share price is still far too high. With the reduced profit forcast the shares, at about 480p, are trading on a forward mutliple of about 23. That is before any further deteriotation in trading that might occur in the next few months.

At 380p you might get some interest.

[ibpatel] 21/9/2005 14:24

this may look a lil ugly for those already in the co...but for would be investors this may look a little better. I'm thinking there may well be some talk of takeover interest in the next few days (not attepting to start it, but is it a valid point?), especially with the exel deal fresh in the mind.

Any thoughts?

[luchan] 21/9/2005 12:02

I love the last post!!!

luchan.

[pjones3] 16/9/2005 17:22

There is a good solid business case for this share with deregulation around the corner. The chart suggests that the next stop is at 500 and then up to 800 early next year. Hope I find some BPG on the Xmas tree.

[shirishg] 08/9/2005 14:26

Post removed by ADVFN

[scumdog] 18/7/2005 16:10

Don't you think it's rather sad that Haystack's posts are even removed from his own thread?

[shirishg] 14/7/2005 01:19

Post removed by ADVFN

[powwow] 13/7/2005 10:07

r u here too you tw@t

[mike24] 31/5/2005 16:32

at last punters seeing real value, as royal mail using agency
staff to deliver your credit cards, all the banks should follow b of scotland move
to bpg