Bushveld Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[bill182] 04/5/2015 11:57

Katy - Fortune certainly did sound confident in his presentation and to me there is clearly a route to the next stages of the Vanadium project without recourse to the markets at the current share price. Perhaps this may explain the recent rise in the share price!

I have also noted some recent trades of 250k shares at neither the buy or sell price. I don't know whether anyone has been shorting this share, but given what was said in the presentation, I would certainly be closing them if it was me.

It looks like further buy-backs are happening at Lemur today, so I think the end-game is in sight there. Could be an interesting next couple of weeks for BMN.

[katylied] 04/5/2015 10:15

Quite a good effort (video) by FM this. He comes across IMO, as rather more confident and persuasive, than in most of his previous presentations. Couple of points I would pick out...

(1) Vanadium market data generally claims that steel-production V-slag is the cheapest source of V, with primary producers (eg. Largo etc...) coming 2nd. Always seemed to me a dodgy claim, for exactly the reasons FM raises in this video. The failure of Evraz Highveld now makes that very clear...

(2) At the end of the video, FM says "Financing, which is the biggest question that people have I think, about Bushveld, is not an issue for us. We are comfortable that we will complete our PFS, we are comfortable that we will get the DFS funded. And remember that we do have within our group Lemur Resources, which is a 60% owned subsidiary that still holds today about A$13.5m in addition to the corporate ? that is in Madagascar..."



After the latest LMR buyback (and subject to cancellation)
BMN now own 62% of Lemur (=~66% with LMR directors)...

[neilyb675] 01/5/2015 16:20

finishing very strong, bid highest for a vey long time...

3.00 - 3.10

[neilyb675] 01/5/2015 16:05

FULL ASK paid now

[bill182] 01/5/2015 15:17

Courtesy of NickDerby on another board:


Vanadium.

The vanadium platform is quite an incredible asset. One of the largest, lowest opex resources in the world with excellent grades. These are the type of resources that have great value in a generally falling commodity market.

For these reasons let’s say an ‘in the ground valuation’ of 1% of the retail price. I will use our scoping study price of $16,500 per tonne which is a little high at the moment but I consider it to be conservative taking into account the future demand/supply forecasts.

That would give us 1,935,000 tonnes at $165 per tonne - $319.275m.

Our share is 64%, giving us $204.3m – at the current exchange rate of 1.49 that gives us around 28.2p per share.

The iron ore platform is also an excellent resource. With very low opex costs of $6 per tonne after credits, this is the kind of resource that also has great value in a low iron ore price environment. It also has the Phosphate layer on top which will reduce the opex costs further!

We could value the iron ore at a very conservative 25c per contained tonne (939Mt at 33.5% Fe) giving us $78.65m. This would be an incredible bargain when you consider the titanium and vanadium credits, plus the 442Mt of phosphate.

Our share is again 64%, which equates to around 7p per share.

Tin – I value the tin at a minimum of £10m. Our share of Mokopane is 74%, giving us around 1.5p per share. There is substantial upside to this value when we reach our target of 50,000 tonnes of tin.

Lemur cash - A$14m, plus 136Mt of coal. Our share is around 60.4% and growing. For simplicity let’s value that around 1.5p per share too, which almost totally ignores the coal!

Looking at it conservatively, our total asset value is around 38p per share.

DYOR

[bill182] 01/5/2015 15:12

Katy. I stand to be corrected and should chose my words more carefully. I accept that a delisting is more likely, but IMHO there is clearly a plan in place and BMN will obtain access to the Lemur cash for the next stage of funding for the Vanadium project.

[katylied] 01/5/2015 14:59

Bill. BMN cannot use LMR cash to 'takeover' Lemur. LMR cannot do more 'buyback' once the 10% is complete, without putting it to a shareholder vote. That is why a delisting is more likely (and better value for BMN shareholders), than a takeover. They can extend the buyback (eg. off market buyback of small non marketable holdings), by combining a delisting vote with a new buyback vote. However, the cash v. equity situation probably needs to be resolved before 23rd July. If you don't know why, you haven't done enough research...

[lazygun] 01/5/2015 14:59

i wonder if there's been some good news on the appeal front....

l.

[bill182] 01/5/2015 14:58

From the 26 Feb release:

Fortune Mojapelo, CEO of Bushveld Minerals, said: "We have made significant progress towards the completion of the Pre-Feasibility study on the project, most notably the completion of the in-fill and metallurgical drilling on the MML and the preparation of our mining right application which is expected to be submitted shortly. The metallurgical drilling has provided sufficient core for the metallurgical testing that our Pre-Feasibility and Feasibility studies require. We are also delighted to have established a focused Bushveld Vanadium Project Pre-Feasibility study owner team, supported by expert external consultants. The team comprises individuals with extensive expertise in vanadium mining, processing and marketing. Additionally, we are pleased to confirm we are on track to declaring a maiden Mineral Resource on the AB Zone."

[neilyb675] 01/5/2015 14:57

2.75 - 3.10

[bill182] 01/5/2015 14:55

From the 16 March release:

Bushveld Vanadium Project Update - Submission of Mining Right Application

Bushveld Minerals (AIM: BMN), a diversified mineral development company with projects in Africa, advises that an application for a Mining Right in terms of section 22 of the Mineral & Petroleum Resources Development Act, 2002 ("the MPRDA") was submitted and accepted by the Department of Mineral Resources ("the DMR") on Friday 12 March 2015. While the Mining Right Application is primarily focused on the Bushveld Vanadium Project, it also covers a range of minerals including titanium and iron ore (subjects of the PQ Iron Ore and Titanium project), phosphate (subject of Bushveld's phosphate deposit), platinum group metals and other minerals.

Fortune Mojapelo, the CEO of Bushveld said, "We are delighted to reach this important milestone for the Bushveld Vanadium Project. Efforts now turn to ensuring that the Mining Right Application is processed expeditiously. Meanwhile, the feasibility study on the vanadium project continues apace and the Company looks forward to providing updates as it progresses."

[bill182] 01/5/2015 14:48

It would appear plenty others believe the story. Very difficult to buy at the moment and the price is pretty much going up on every trade.

[bill182] 01/5/2015 14:47

apfindley - it is not the iron ore but the vanadium that will set this alight. I suggest you do a little research on the new uses for vanadium in battery technology.

KatyLied - check the shareholdings at Lemur. BMN will be able to use part of the cash to buy out the remaining shareholders and have plenty left over to fund the next stage.

[apfindley] 01/5/2015 14:40

Pity iron ore prices are low and expected to stay low for some time

[katylied] 01/5/2015 14:37

I hope you are correct (or better still someone offers to buy Lemur outright). However there is a possible (cheap share issue) iceberg on the horizon on July 23rd, if BMN still don't have access to LMR cash, or other (non equity) funding...

[bill182] 01/5/2015 14:26

It is now 2.72 to sell and you can't buy....looking very good. The Lemur buy-back should be finished next week and it is pretty much a racing certainty that BMN will announce a full take-over and then have access to all of the cash.

There will not be a need for a placing at this ridiculous level and the share price will recover quickly and hopefully anyone shorting will be well and truly caught out.

[neilyb675] 01/5/2015 13:32

spread tightened nicely

2.60 - 2.75

[neilyb675] 23/4/2015 14:45

crazy spread