Burst Media Corporation Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 01/12/2006 18:52

Wiganer - I'd be religious too if I had a name like Coffin!

Daydreamer - what do you want? A medal or a chest to pin it on? The cash that's going in here came from 2 bagging YSP in a few months. Where would my money have been best placed?

CR

[wiganer] 01/12/2006 16:35

Great finish to the day/week.

[kenatbabken] 01/12/2006 13:37

Looking at the tabulated data in the fall from 23.5p to 14.5p there were only
120,000 shares traded so the MM,s won,t have many for sale in that range

[quotes_4_u] 01/12/2006 12:56

Bit late cr, some of us are in at 13.5p :-))

[wiganer] 01/12/2006 12:53

CR- re the company's apology for disappointing, I actually found that refreshing. My googling on the Directors found no dirt, and quite a few positives.
Just as an aside, this is what the CEO gets up to in his spare time:

[sigora] 01/12/2006 12:46

Nice to have you on board CR, with you and wiganer i feel more secure with my investment.

[cockneyrebel] 01/12/2006 12:44

I noticed large volume on 28th Nov too - looked like some stock clearing imo.

CR

[wiganer] 01/12/2006 11:18

Just to remind folks, the Directors bought at 24.5p

[cockneyrebel] 01/12/2006 11:08

Bought a wadge today, pure punt but they were moving up off a long flatline on no trades showing.

Directors have been buying I see. Seem to have a lot of cash too for a £17m company. If they get back to earning the money they were making a couple of years ago these will be excruciatingly cheap imo.

It was interesting to see the company apologise for floating then disappointing too - it actually looks genuine imo

Worth a little bit of speculative money here imo.

CR

[kenatbabken] 30/11/2006 11:54

Nice steady progress here Wiganer,I have sent the email to Bill Davlin but
not had a reply yet.I asked about the Stock Compensation as that was one of the questions I wanted answering,I also asked about that large tranche of shares and whether we could look forward to some newsflow {I mentioned the
figures from shooting star,s find}

[wiganer] 30/11/2006 11:46

Just did a dummy sell for my 20000 shares. Usually in the past I haven't got a quote for a sell of that size, but today I did, and inside the strip at 16.25p.

Suggests to me that there is buying demand, and more upside to come. I didn't sell.

[treborite] 29/11/2006 21:11

thanks wiganer

[wiganer] 29/11/2006 17:05

I buy and sell mine online with TD Waterhouse.

[treborite] 29/11/2006 17:04

How do I get hold of these shares on the net? Lloyds can't help thanks in advance


"Learner"

[wiganer] 29/11/2006 14:35

Nice bounce today. Shame I didn't load up yesterday when you could buy below mid-price at 14.4 or 14.5.

[kenatbabken] 29/11/2006 14:27

Up 10% Are we on the way!!

[kenatbabken] 27/11/2006 17:39

June,s unique vistors figure was 79 million,September,s 89 million and Octobers
94 million,Good growth there.Good find that shooting star

[shooting_star] 27/11/2006 10:57

the comscrore press release at the internet site below represents intriging reading for those interested in Burst Media:



Issued on 13th November the comscore analysis suggests that Burst reached almost 94 million unique visitors in the month of October. The company was ranked number 10 in the measurement agency's Ad Focus Ranking for October - ahead of 24/7 Real Media.

This was an improvement from rank 11 in the month of September
(this analysis is shown here:

These comscore stats in my opinion underline that Burst's core business model is not broken as the market price of the shares currently implies

[kenatbabken] 24/11/2006 15:37

shooting star

I fully agree with your estimates that is why I have bought 500k of shares,
If newsflow could be improved no reason why this can,t at least double in the
short term.I own 5% of IBG so know the growth can be explosive in the internet
sector.As you say the company has experienced management and has been around
since 1995

[shooting_star] 24/11/2006 15:19

Wiganer thanks for your help. I managed to buy some stock via TDWH just now!

I work as a buy side equity analyst and have done a fair amount of work on online advertising. The risk/reward looks hugely compelling to me at this price. Here are the numbers I estimate right now and implied valuation multiples (i assume exchange rate of £1=$1.91).

Price 14.5p
Shares outstanding 82.93
Market Cap =£12.02m
Net Cash as of H1: £6.65m
Enterprise Value=£5.37m
Net Cash as a % of Market Cap=55%

FY06e ESTIMATES
Rev $24m i.e. £12.57m
EBITDA $2.4m i.e. £1.26m (pre non cash stock option expense)
EPS 1.17p (pre non cash stock option expense)

FY06e MULTIPLES
EV/Revenue =0.43x
EV/EBITDA = 4.26x
P/E =12.4x (would be a lot lower if you looked at this ex-cash!)

FY07e ESTIMATES
Rev $27.6m i.e. £14.45m (I assume 15% rev growth next year is achieveable)
EBITDA $3.5m i.e. £1.83m (pre non cash stock option expense)
EPS 1.70p (pre non cash stock option expense)

FY07e MULTIPLES
EV/Revenue =0.37x
EV/EBITDA = 2.93x
P/E =8.5x (would be a lot lower if you looked at this ex-cash!)

While newsflow to date has been very disappointing I believe that this company is not broken. The company has been established in banner advertising for a long time and has a strong board. downside risk is hugely limited by the company's net cash position.

The stock today presents a very interesting recovery story. If management can execute after disppointing to date then the numbers for FY07 i present above can easily be beaten.

It is very rare to see a growth story like this trading at such low multiples. It is hugely interesting how the stock has drifted down since the profit warning and director buying.

The key larger peers that this company has have generally been posting very good numbers this year and trade at much higher multiples of earnings & revenue. (look at VCLK US (31x 07 pe), TRAD SS (25x 07 pe), APM GR (26x pe) & TFSM US (16x 07 pe))The potential for BRST from here in my opinion looks huge.

I would be interested to hear any views on my estimates and any other insights - especially from people in the industry

[wiganer] 24/11/2006 09:52

TDWH will trade BRST. Their charge is £11.95 a trade.

[shooting_star] 24/11/2006 09:51

hi can anyone help me i am interested in buying some BRST shares but cant do it via my usuak broker which is selftrade. they say the stock is "residual" and doesn't settle through CREST. does anyone know who I can open an account with and trade this share (the lower the fees the better!)

[wiganer] 22/11/2006 08:54

One other thought- you might want to stress to him the importance of BRST restoring confidence, especially given the negative sentiment towards US/Reg S shares that seems to exist generally and compounds the efffect of the company-specific problems BRST has had.

[wiganer] 22/11/2006 08:53

Ken
Thanks for taking the initiative on this, I tried twice to get replies from their investor relations people at Hudson Sandler, but never got a reply (maybe you could mention that to Mr Davlin).
My question is about the shares compensation charge of $2,064,110 in the last accounts; could he clarify what it was for and whether it was a one-off.
Clarity on that could do wonders for the share price.
Cheers
W