Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[three black crows] 06/4/2021 12:04

Maddox,
I think he is playing the guessing game

[maddox] 06/4/2021 11:50

Hi prokartace,

So how have you contsructed your trade? What is your entry price, target price and stop loss?

[lomax99] 06/4/2021 11:25

Each to their own, I’m sitting tight and topping up on re-traces. The re-rating will continue, would not want to be out on this should a positive Petersen RNS land....

[stentorian] 06/4/2021 11:12

prokartace is a stoxx devotee.

[prokartace] 06/4/2021 10:14

I feel I can only use this share as a short to medium term trade because of the stigma attached to the company. I have done this several times now and as it is successful for the time being I will continue in this manner. Yes, I may miss out on potential huge gains in the future but I am guessing I will have already made that huge gain in a series of smaller gains by then and also hopefully avoided sitting for significant periods of time with big unrealised losses

[tnt99] 06/4/2021 09:36

Go burford flying back to 20 pounds as true value comes out

[lomax99] 05/4/2021 17:12

BUR are taking part in a Shares webinar seminar on 20th April:Https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/events/event/shares-investor-evening--webinar-200421

[stock surfer] 04/4/2021 18:42

So another 4 day week ahead for us, however US markets are open tomorrow! If Burford continues its journey to the moon, a norty open on Tuesday could be in sight.

[donald pond] 03/4/2021 15:22

In my experience the US market needs a wake up event to start getting particularly excited about a company. In the case of BUR, it needs some unequivocal good news. This could be the YPF case settling, or significant and sustainable waterfall fees kicking in on the funds, or even just a set of results that are great.
But we've been in a run of unclear results. Some looked great because they had a whopping YPF write up. Others looked good but showed a sharp tail off. The most recent ones look good if you exclude YPF from the previous ones but if you don't are flat.
We can understand all of this, but for new investors it looks a little tricky to grasp. On the bright side, the price rose last week and I think its almost certainly because of post-results buying rather than Steinhoff related. And we are approaching the endgame with YPF, and as Maddox explained, there are indications that a number of cases may be reaching conclusion.
So I'm quite happy to add on any weakness and be happy when its strong.

[rar100] 03/4/2021 14:06

Well I surmise that Burford gets better and better at picking the the candidates to fund through bitter experience of the ones that they have lost, so the law of averages is in their favour.

However regarding the SP, the volumes are very small now, and day trading skews things pretty widely imho not just by PI's, a negative press report does that too - FT and IC - like them or not they do influence a lot, BUT Moodys revalue helps and some institutions have bought in so it's looking good again for the long term. But a lot of people would be put off by the 3 year chart, and they'd be adventurous or have money to lose happily to invest based on chart history which is often the overriding yardstick to investment. I invested through great press reports and a chart going north strongly - my usual criteria, it just makes sense and is 'safe'. I particularly liked the 'new asset class' phrase. Good to see more favourable press reports recently too.

Here's to the next triggering event!

[donald pond] 03/4/2021 13:12

On Maddox's point, they only revalue when there is a triggering event, so either selling part of the claim to a third party and thus establishing some sort of fair market price, or a court decision being made. These decisions are usually going to be preliminary matters: strike outs, summary judgments, jurisdiction battles, even judgments subject to further appeals I guess. But if the write up is positive it indicates that Burford is winning the battle to have the case heard on its terms. And given that legal fees tend to follow an exponential pattern, ramping up as the final hearing nears, it augers well for the prospect of good outcomes in the near term

[rar100] 03/4/2021 12:59

Devalpha,

I read the report once.

I don't classify myself as a serious investor, but managed to turn 25k into 190k in 4 years. That's serious enough for me.

If BUR had kept going north as it was 6 months before MW, I'd really be in clover but we all know what happened.

I could have sold BUR, bought into lots of other shares and made up losses quickly, I didn't as I thought it was the market not understanding the concept, still do.

Let's hope Maddox is correct with his 27% and we all ride that cusp wave.

I really thought the US listing would propel BUR, all that uneducated money sloshing about - a good interview on Bloomberg would have helped...

Right now with the spike north would be a great time to do a serious PR blitz to investing media, how many 'investors' in the US know of LitFin? 0.5% maybe?

GLA

[maddox] 02/4/2021 23:26

Just reflecting on the unrealised gains in the b/s at the year-end - there were 41 cases amounting to £183m in unrealised gains (excl. YPF) that were 'widely distributed'. This figure is up 4.8x from the £38m as at Dec 2019.

The unrealised gains have been portrayed negatively as a profit manipulation tool by some analysts, whereas they might in fact be a useful indication of future results as the portfolio of cases matures.

We know that fair value adjustments are substantially made within the year prior to the case concluding, and these uplifts then represent typically c.27% of the final settlement/award. If this holds true, then based on this huge uplift in unrealised gains, suggests we should be on the cusp of a wave of settlements.

[alfredomega] 02/4/2021 23:10

Another tailwind could be the big losses for the Suez channel blockage that is likely to bring tons of litigations to determine who has to pay for them.

[scubadiverr] 02/4/2021 20:42

I'm not sure that dressing as the KKK and mingling with BLM would make a difference in a good way :)

[dekle] 02/4/2021 20:33

That’s a bit harsh, some of us read a bit of the news but base their judgement on other things like believing in the story and how it fits in the current climate. It should be no surprise that the courts have been unable to operate as normal and therefore it’s likely to be jam tomorrow. It sometimes pays dividends not to follow the herd.

[devalpha] 02/4/2021 19:47

rar100I'm sorry, but you need to hear this.Serious and ultimately successful investors would never dream of not reading annual reports.If you don't find the time to put in the work to do this, you're as well going to your local casino or bookie.We're all busy, but you need to do the work.

[rar100] 02/4/2021 18:27

Maddox

I have my opinions on BUR some good some bad, the long term chart shows it has been a troubled Co. I buy shares in a company that I think will do well, I'll hold if the share price goes South if I think it's a blip. BUR has been a disaster for 2 years. I work long hours in something very interesting, don't have time to read lots of reports. I've got quite a few shares in different Co's, 90% doing much better than BUR over 2 years. I know a fair bit about BUR and it ain't all good. Their PR to the public is poor to non-existent. Simply put, they should portray themselves as white hats in a sea of black hats, it would make all the difference.

Most investors trust the Co's they invest in to do well without reading every report and I had a timeframe to sell the lot and move house, Not all investors are in a stock for 10 or more years.

I hope they do well. You should get some help for your paranoia.

[devalpha] 02/4/2021 15:49

I agree lomax99.I think the recent price increase is more likely to be driven by continued steady buying from Bogart & Molot to gradually spend their promised $2.5m (after tax) each on shares at decent prices and also the employee share trust buying.There may also be some more US institutional interest after they digested the FY20 report.Take heart, and look to the horizon (Nick Sleep).

[lomax99] 02/4/2021 13:11

The win from Steinhoff, in absolute terms, of perhaps $10-11m is too small to have impacted on the share price to that extent.

[donald pond] 02/4/2021 12:43

Was thinking the same Maddox. Though they have always said they won't announce individual wins, if they are material- which is usually meant to be 1% of the share cap or 5% of annual profits - it should be

[lazg] 02/4/2021 12:34

@everyone: rar100 contributions are valuable. No bullying.

[maddox] 02/4/2021 12:33

It'll be interesting to see whether the Steinhoff settlement is RNS'd?

In the b/s at the year-end there were 41 cases amounting to £183m in unrealised gains (excl. YPF) that were 'widely distributed'. This suggests that Steinhoff will entail a significant write-up on it's carrying value.

It is arguable that news reports of a sizeable possible win for Burford and it's clients has already moved the share price by 10% and on this unofficial yard stick the market should be informed.