Btg Share Discussion Threads

[muffmitz] 23/11/2016 15:25

I have today bought for my own portfolio and my grandchilren's ISAs. It may not be the bottom but it's a great opportunity for the medium term. Usual caveats.

[a1ord53] 23/11/2016 14:48

I am afraid that short sellers slowly pushing share price down, cause no news to expect soon and without news BTG always has tendency to loose ground.
Will be difficult time next 6 months.
USD keeps climbing and GBP is low- eventually it will come to higher revenues for BTG and consequently higher share price
Hold.

[steeplejack] 23/11/2016 12:45

As well as holding the ordinary shares,I confess to being a long term holder of CFDs here.This is painful ,being charged daily to hold a stock which has been in the doldrums for around 18 months.The moral is,of course,don't deal in CFDs.Oh CFDs might be marketed as long term instruments but that's rubbish if the stock held is in a malaise,not paying a dividend and is on a rating that leaves precious little room for error.Even in its heyday,with Zantac growing exponentially,I don't remember Glaxo ever being on a prospective multiple of over 35.The company statements are frankly quite self congratulatory.Yet,the market would appear to be more critical and I'm not quite sure what's going to change that attitude over the next 18 months.

[a1ord53] 22/11/2016 16:11

again under 600p
annoying
somebody (By Stockopedia and Ben Hobson | Wed, 16th November 2016 - 12:52) recommended btg as defensive stock
it doesnt look like imo

[bargainbob] 22/11/2016 10:31

It times like these you need someone to read a chart . That's a

cracker this morning.

[bargainbob] 19/11/2016 09:26

Agree Fhmktg , currently waiting to 2022 . That's the point in IMHO we will know if it's moving to the next level.

Will it get there , who knows. Will it be allowed to get there without takeover who knows.

Good Luck all .

[fhmktg] 18/11/2016 11:15

With an underlying eps growth rate of over 70% as well.Once the fine is taken care of and the currency deals settle we should resume normal service, by which time Varithena will have its codes.Pie in the sky? Maybe but I'm holding through 2018.

[steeplejack] 18/11/2016 10:40

Although varicose veins treatment Varithena once again failed to inspire the market, BTG now has an impressive portfolio of products that more than make up for this. At 37 times forward earnings, the shares don't come cheap, but more earnings-enhancing acquisitions could yet justify this rating. Hold for now.Investors Chronicle 18.11.16

[cockneytrader] 16/11/2016 16:17

PS ref profit, the p/e ratio has been gunned to pieces!

[gregmorg] 16/11/2016 11:24

Thanks also to Bargainbob for sharing with us the Andy Burrows post figures response to Paul at 3i. This helps to complete the picture and is appreciated.

[steeplejack] 16/11/2016 11:04

"We are unashamed about not instituting a dividend yet, because we firmly believe we are creating greater long term value for shareholders".Fair enough but the no dividend paying policy places the stock firmly in the growth fund category and precludes it from being held by income or balanced funds for that matter .A number of other stocks in the sector like Glaxo and Astra Zeneca benefit from being bond proxies.Not so BTG which is,to state the obvious,utterly dependent upon an evaluation of its earnings growth prospects.Thanks Greg for a very conclusive report post figures.

[fhmktg] 16/11/2016 09:28

Pretty good consensus!

[a1ord53] 16/11/2016 09:27

Date Broker Recommendation Price Old target price New target price Notes
16 Nov 16 JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral 602.00 830.00 800.00 Reiterates
16 Nov 16 Deutsche Bank Buy 602.00 - - Reiterates
16 Nov 16 Jefferies International Buy 602.00 860.00 860.00 Reiterates
15 Nov 16 Numis Buy 602.00 900.00 900.00 Reiterates
15 Nov 16 Cantor Fitzgerald Buy 602.00 800.00 800.00 Reiterates
03 Nov 16 Stifel Buy

[a1ord53] 16/11/2016 09:22

Numis reiterates 900p
Cantor 800p

[fhmktg] 16/11/2016 08:17

I hope a lot of analysts read that response!Looks like a turbulent day ahead.

[bargainbob] 15/11/2016 17:36

Response to Paul on 3 eye

As you know I have agood relationship with Andy Burrow and emailed him this morning with our concerns. Here is his reply which was, I might add an appreciated quick response.
Ciao Paulo

Hi Paul,

The results for the first half are in line with our guidance, and we are reiterating our underlying guidance for the full year, which is a good place to be. I think there has been an overreaction to our FX losses. This year our existing forward contracts mean we don’t see the benefit of weaker sterling, but you fair value them at each half year and we have taken most of the pain on the existing ones, so if the £ stays around $1.25 we will see the benefits next year as the existing contracts expire.

The US is the biggest market in healthcare so clearly very important to us, and where the companies we have acquired have really been able to develop their businesses. However, you are correct - there is a big world out there. I do have to disagree with you that we are ignoring ex-US markets though: a lot of the investments we have been making are designed to expand the geographic availability of our products. Take Interventional Oncology. When we bought Biocompatibles, all products were sold through distributors. We set up a US sales force in January 2012 (when the contract with the distributor expired), and then we put in place an EU sales force that started selling directly in April 2015 (when the Terumo EU distribution contract we inherited expired). We then (through our partner SciClone Pharmaceuticals) gained approval in China for the Beads and started selling there around a year ago. TheraSphere had hardly an EU sales when we acquired it and 3 EU sales people - we have increased that force to more than 25; we are also progressing TheraSphere towards a regulatory submission in China, and our IO products are now available in South Korea, H9ong Kong, Taiwan, a host of middle eastern countries and South American countries as well as Australia and other places. EKOS concentrated on the US but we have put in place plans to expand into Europe and other territories.

Clearly CroFab is only relevant in North America, but with DigiFab we gained regulatory approvals in the UK, Switzerland, Australia, Canada and others so that we are able to supply it on a named patient basis everywhere. You may have seen that we recently extended our contract with Clinigen, who supply products in many countries, so that we can reach territories where it does not make sense to have a direct infrastructure for our products.

In healthcare, as well as making the commercial investments, we often have to fund studies and go through regulatory approvals processes before we can market our products. It takes time to do all this, but where it makes sense we have plans in place and are managing and phasing the required investments appropriately.

Some territories are not key markets for our products, mainly because of practice, lack of infrastructure and affordability. Africa does not have many hospitals that perform the types of liver cancer procedures or blood clot removal procedures that drive the IO and EKOS businesses. Pricing is also very different. The US in general pays for innovative healthcare products whereas other markets don't, and we don’t sell white pills for common ailments, we are selling high technology medical products that are used in high value procedures.

Just on Lemtrada and Zytiga, they have been and are important cash generators to enable us to reinvest in the business, but we have known for a very long time exactly when they expire. Our strategy is to replace these expiring royalty streams with high-margin, higher-growth interventional medicine revenues. As you have seen from today's results, IO and EKOS are going great guns, Spec Pharma is highly cash generative and efficient and doing what we want, Varithena and PneumRx are building more slowly but that's the beauty of having a portfolio to manage. So we are very comfortable with our guidance for sustained double digit compound annual revenue growth over the long term...you won’t see earnings growing at the same rate as revenues in the near term because we are choosing to reinvest, but as revenue continue to build you will see that operating leverage come through.

I think you will have a long wait for the next share awards/vesting Paul - remember from our previous correspondence that that is a once-a-year event after our full year results. We are unashamed about not instituting a dividend yet, because we firmly believe we are creating greater long term value for shareholders (directors and other employees included!) by reinvesting in product innovation, clinical trials to expand the approved uses of our products, and in commercial growth to expand the geographic availability of our products and penetration where we are already available.

As always, kind regards.

Andy

Andy Burrows

Vice President, Corporate and Investor Relations.
BTG plc

[bargainbob] 15/11/2016 17:23

A lord , agree the shares will creep up slowly from here.

[gregmorg] 15/11/2016 11:54

Not sure on one of the last FX points. Yes BTG stand to gain on dollar vs sterling revenue movements but my understanding is the impact of adverse foreign exchange contracts will still be with us. It will take six six months to a year to be free of these things. The FX annual charge is likely to be £25m vs £17m at the interim stage. Getting smaller certainly. BTG presented a few scaled proviso's re these currency movements but nothing to change the scenario significantly, that I can see. So some bright BTG financial spark undertook some chunky forward FX commitments and got it wrong.

As you say the business is trundling along and I cannot disagree..Having said that, BTG presented quite an upbeat operational growth message for the next few years

The CEO still holds to the 2021 revenue targets and said if you do the maths of the double digit revenue compounding you can get there. Also there are a multiple of revenue growth ways that this target can be reached. It was also said that the 2021 figure was a figure within a period but yearly double digit growth was likely to be seen for the next ten years. A few bolt on IM acquisitions are also possible as the company gears up in the growth IM market. The exc's( FD) say it is easy to see that they could have a £200 to £300m war chest including reinvesting strong cash flows (my words here!) to hand ,if the opportunities presented themselves.
Varithena, they suggest, has turned the corner and, as an early stage project, they sounded a bit more positive and then slipped in the 2018 suggested timescale for the permanent CPT code. So that has slipped a bit although an increasing number of insurers are happy to pay up on the interim generic CPT code. Getting there but slowly!