||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|superbarnet: A share price can be slashed even when good results are reported. It all depends on the analysts' expectations. I am delighted at the performance today as the price was little changed. The graph shows the long term direction and i will be adding over the next few weeks.|
|doctor 69: Overall btg is undervalued , but given how poor the other large pharmas pipelines are btg will with time rise up . We have seen a steady share price rise , but the share price rise is too slow for the comming events . Whilst recently the price started to appreciate zytiga it has not factored in the beads, the ms treatment, certainly not varisolve or anthing for cytofab .
I keep thinking about our local vascular surgeons preferring to inject foam than strip veins and it makes me think if USA . The share price will be much higher as it month we realise how big varisolve is worth .
Just wait till profits will be in the hundreds of millions and btg reaches. £ 10b capitalisation . This is really possible over next 3 yrs .|
|alanrussell: For my money this is the important bit.
"There were no cerebrovascular events or pulmonary emboli reported in any study"
V's efficacy has already been established, it was the safety question that caused the PIII suspension and share price crash last time.|
|gregmorg: I am in this one for the long term although it already has been a long time to date! The news flow has been good yet time and time again brokers' research notes suggest that every bit of good news is already discounted. For instance Edison suggested that positive news on the next two Phase 3 trials on Varisolve, due in 2012, is already discounted in their valuation.(and they do paid for research). Admittedly they had an asset valuation of over a pound north of here but not reflecting in any way the sorts of huge cash flow that should result from Varisolve let alone other products in the stable. Another broker I came across has also got a lower asset valuation, actually one lower than the current share price which completely flummoxed me.
Several times these "experts" state that the Varisolve trials are already discounted in the share price(I would love to see the maths on that one!) although not good news on AZD9773 where it seems some are more positive as a result of earlier trial data. That rather intrigued me. All one can do is listen and learn(and be a bit irritated!) but been in this game too long to take most outside "experts in this field too seriously. Nevertheless rather fed up with this waiting for good news and when it comes the share price flips up only to lose all the gain, and often more, as the bears get to grips. Value does eventually show thru on all stocks but I do wonder whether the investor PR approach here just does not understand the market or is just too cautious for even us long term holders. We shall see.|
Another 2 billion could be added to the company share price if it makes 200-225 million a year profit. Thats around a £10 a share.
This does not include the Sepis factor although high risk at the moment which would be the real share price multiplier. £20 -£30 adder.
Suspect V to hit the £10 target in 3 years . As for Sepis we wait and see.|
|toffeeman4: Agree Waterloo, either the board keeps the share price rising or a predator will do it for them. This latest Varisolve news is very welcome, feels very positive and will underpin the share price. Should a predator move in, we must be looking at close to a £5 take out price. However I feel we could well be looking at that level in the next 12-18 months as further hopefully positive news comes through on Varisolve.
At some point surely analysts will start to factor into their figures the question of dividends. There is also elevation to the FTSE to look forward to which will mean further increase in share price. Varisolve could well deliver both these. Then there is CytoFab, which would totally transform the company.|
|thekobbler: One explanation is that today's news was probably anticipated, hence the recent steady share price rise recently. There is a generalisation with phase III clinical trials, that no news is good news. Therefore as there had been no "negative" news up to the expected reporting milestone, then the trial must be going ok. In fact I think it seems to have performed even better than OK, so can only see these continuing to climb as the news/risk reduction sinks in. IIRC the possible worldwide sales for Varisolve are in the region of $450m per annum within 5 years from FDA approval. The current share price does not reflect this enormous potential, even with a 90% risk estimate.|
|toffeeman4: Just to add my thoughts to recent posts. No one has mentioned future dividends. Should Varisolve make it to market then dividends will come into play driving the share price.
Should both Varisolve and CytoFab both fail, I think probably £2 is a bottom to share price which is supported by current turnover of approx £165m and cash balances.
Were Varisolve make it to market I would look for a capitalisation around £1.6bn+, based on additional sales of £150m pa.
CytoFab is a complete gamechanger if approved. BTG would get 25% of sales together with cash of £150m from milestone. Again this would impact on future dividends.
I have no idea what the beads business is worth, anyone?
As for takeover prospects, you can bet that BTG is being seriously looked at by others. I've said it before, Shire's share price continues to rise and could be used to acquire BTG.
AZ could take out the whole company just purely for CytoFab and sell the rest on, or make an offer for CytoFab too good to refuse, special dividend for us shareholders?
Exciting times ahead, probably with a few blips along the way. Lets hope it all comes off.|
|a1ord53: Broker Peel Hunt, which rates the shares a "buy", responded to the update by cranking up its price target from 300p to 320p. "We see four near-term drivers of growth emerging," explained Peel Hunt analyst Dr. Paul Cuddon. "Zytiga/Campath royalties are beginning to offset the loss of Benefix (which may be extended into H2 [second half] pending legal discussions); direct control of CroFab and DigiFab in the US provides a channel to leverage. Varisolve is nearing the end of its development phase with encouraging anecdotal feedback and the beads business looks primed for strong growth subject to increased R&D investment," Dr. Cuddon said. "We believe the latter two opportunities are each capable of £100m in high margin sales," he added. finnCap, however, believes that the share price is up with events, and rates the shares a "hold". "With key triggers for the shares (Varisolve and CytoFab clinical results) occurring towards the middle of next year, we rate the shares a Hold and retain our 285p price target," said finnCap analyst, Keith Redpath. The share price rose 2.99% to 295.8p by 13:19. NR|
|rrogans: Hi All, it looks to me that there is a correlation between the BGC share price and financial quarters - I was wondering if anyone agrees and has a theory on this? There always seems to be a dip at the end of each quarter.
BTG share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange