BTG Share Discussion Threads

[fhmktg] 16/3/2012 09:18

Just about hit the trend line- on recent patterns could turn north again soon, bring on the news!

Three weeks to the close period update.

[enormouswillie] 15/3/2012 22:50

I know bb. its gonna be emormous ;-)

[bargainbob] 15/3/2012 22:08

You cannot hide how big this will be in time willie.

[enormouswillie] 15/3/2012 21:32

the brokers are not to be trusted, yet they are supposed to be the professionals, the london market is corrupted as well with these types. In the end, value will out.

[cumnor] 15/3/2012 19:44

Edison analysts imo have no idea what they are talking about, as usual. The unblinding of the Zytiga trial at that time could not have been predicted but because the results were so impressive and convincing they stopped it early to give everyone the benefit of this newish drug.

The unblinding of the trial will be an important consideration in regulatory approval as well as in marketing the drug. This adds considerably to the evidence and pushes it into the realms of 'potential blockbuster' from 'solid performer'.

The choices in prostatic ca are limited so any drug that stands out could do very well. Recent news on Zytiga adds considerably more to the value of BGC's stake than the market was giving it credit for. Remember most trials are not stopped early as the outcomes may not be that obvious and the possibility of adverse reactions, not noted previously, could have made them stop early with detrimental effects on value.

Zytiga, because it will be a big, big seller, after the last RNS has added considerably to BTG's value-equivalent to their having a new drug with modest sales aproved- which has yet to be factored in.

Many people would like these cheap as it is a profitable, safe mini pharma with big growth potential. I would take brokers notes with a pinch of salt. They usually have a different agenda to your's. aimo dyor

[4legs] 15/3/2012 17:37

Thanks fhmktg. I suppose it is, the way these traders, play it. I feel it holds the price back, though I suppose thats the market. I have been in a long time and likely a lot longer, so it doesn't really matter. However I will probably sell some at £5 and it would nice to get there sooner than later.

[gregmorg] 15/3/2012 16:42

What puzzles me is the latest Edison research note . This states that their valuation of "fair Value" is 452p and that the Zytiga Phase 3 news was already factored into their valuation. A surprise to me but fair enough I suppose.

It then goes on to say that their valuation also includes presumed success of the two Varisolve Phase 3 studies not yet reported! However, Cytofab Phase 2 study is not factored in and that could be significant but is low probability. Edison's note as "paid for" research could be responsibly managing investors expectations on a gradual basis but I have always anticipated Varisolve would have a major, indeed transforming, impact on BTG revenues. So I am left rather bemused.

[fhmktg] 15/3/2012 15:34

'AT' trades using automatic trading programmes - can be 'set' to track the FTSE indices or a predetermined strategy for a share.
In our case it seems that after every piece of positive news there follows a determined pressure to force the share price down, before the next anticipated news.
We expect CytoFab trial results by mid year and the remaining two Varisolve trials- plus some 'Bead' results.
So.... more of the same, but a major move upwards if everything is positive.
Three more months of this pattern then £5 here we come!

[4legs] 15/3/2012 10:03

Why all the small trades?

[humphbumph] 13/3/2012 17:46

Yeah, well, it doesn't always work of course. I sold all of my quite large holding at just over 350p (and to be honest I was very happy with the whole deal and to bank money when I was quite illiquid). However I would not be human if it didn't niggle me a bit that I didn't buy a lot again when it went to 340+ last week. I bought just a few and it keeps me in BTG but.......

Sorry, holders, but there's one BTG afficionado who is hoping for a decent drop shortly. Forza, bots.

[fhmktg] 13/3/2012 15:43

I'm comforted- thanks HB!

[humphbumph] 13/3/2012 11:26

For years I have pondered the apparent irrationality of the bot-trades which totally dominate on this share. I have failed to see any pattern that makes sense to me, but WTFDIK.

One simple response is to sell blind when it's high and then buy back if it goes down again: it doesn't have to have a rationale for some quite large movements as far as I can ascertain. Of course, it seems that the general trend over the last couple of years is upwards: look at that lovely 2 year graph above. Bloody good company.

[fhmktg] 13/3/2012 09:24

Please could someone explain the 'logic' behind the AT trade pattern for BTG?
Every morning the 'sells' come in hard to drop the market price, then we spend the rest of the day clawing back.

It seems counter intuitive- particularly when the FTSE 100/250 indices are in positive territory.
How many of these sell programmes are involved?
VERY frustrating!

[cumnor] 12/3/2012 21:07

Thanks moretime. BTG is one of these derisked companies with assets, incl cash, increasing revenue stream and potential for significant growth, eg beads, Zytiga royalty and beads in oncology, that iis just start to notice at this stage in their eveloution. They are slow but once they do they tend to pay well, drive up the price which puts the company on the radar of other big investors. All BTG has to do is deliver which it ceretainly is doing so far. imo dyor

[moretimeforlife] 12/3/2012 20:58

"Highlighting companies with the most firepower at their disposal, analysts pinpointed Synergy Health (LSE: SYR.L - news) , down ½ to 825½p, and BTG (LSE: BGC.L - news) . Analysts added that BTG, which makes products such as an antidote to snakebite venom, had around £50m of cash for M&A.

But over the next two to three years, Peel Hunt thought FTSE 250 (FTSE: ^FTMC - news) -listed BTG, down 4.4 to 355½p, could be a viable takeover target itself given factors such as the growth of its bead business, which delivers cancer drugs."

[moretimeforlife] 12/3/2012 14:03

Agree Doc, this feels like a great time to be in BTG. (Wonder what happend to WB2 who used to super-optimistic about BTG?)

Feel more confident than any time since I started building a stake at the start of 2005 that BTG will deliver significant value by 2013 and still expecting to see it transcend £7.

Louise, John, Rolf and co have progressively taken BTG to a higher level and deserve recognition and reward for a job well done.....and continuing to maximise value for shareholders.

Enjoying the ride and looking forward to next 21 months being exceptionally good for all fellow long-term shareholders.

Dum Spiro Spero.

NAI/DYOR etc.

[doctor 69] 12/3/2012 11:14

well time will most likely show this was not the time to be out of bgc

[aquila2001] 12/3/2012 10:23

Peel Hunt cuts BTG to hold .....

12 March 2012 08:38:58

BTG PLC BGC.L :

* Peel Hunt cuts BTG BGC.L to hold from buy ......

[fhmktg] 12/3/2012 09:28

Yes Humphbumph - depressing the share price before news is posted!
Frustrating!
Time for another Varisolve update?
Close period update first week in April, if last year's pattern is followed

[humphbumph] 12/3/2012 09:23

Just took another nibble: I can't keep away. It's not real selling just the infernal bots. Still, I suppose they sometimes accomplish a function.

[greenpastures2] 12/3/2012 09:15

If you need to sell the time to do it is after good news is announced. I sold some a few years ago for 180p not because I was pessimistic about the Company but because I had so much invested in it that if anything went seriously wrong I would have felt the pain too much.

[greenpastures2] 12/3/2012 09:11

Angiotensin was the reason why I bought my first lot of protherics back in 1998. But when I looked into it a few years ago I came away thinking a vaccine was just too problematic.

I cannot remember the details off the top of my head but the physiological interactions are extremely complex. And one point mentioned in the literature, which was the killer point I thought, was that at times it is necessary to raise blood pressure and a vaccine could make this difficult to achieve.


I take blood pressure medication and a few years ago I had a minor operation but I had to spend an extended time in the reovery room because my blood pressure had dropped significantly.

[cumnor] 12/3/2012 09:07

One can only wonder at the stupidity of the naieve selling their pathetic few shares just as this company is about to be rerated. imo

[fhmktg] 12/3/2012 08:55

CytoFab will have the potential to transform the cashflow for BTG and the 'fact' that the trials have not been halted for lack of benefit or adverse safety concerns gives ground for mild optimism.
But... what happened to Angiotensin?
This was the second high potential candidate from the spin off from protein fragment technology.
Early trials were stopped due to the adjuvant causing some adverse effects around the injection site.
'partners being saught'is the Company refrain but has the technology been by- passed?
Any expert thoughts?

(tucked away in the cash growth file is the recommendation that CroFab can be used for 'any' bite situation - the critters will be sunning themselves ready for the biting season)

[cortez4] 11/3/2012 22:11

spyder, yes and no re the IP but mostly no. The old model of 3% net royalties failed and BTG are transforming themselves into a company self-marketing there own products but some products have been brought in via take-overs that depend on royalties. If BTG were to come across an excellent early stage roduct, there's no reason why they shouldn't secure the IP and develop it themselves. If sustainably profitable they could develop further for better royalties than 3% even through to marketing depending on cost. But the main thrust is via self-marketing.

We never quite know what to expect but the management are doing an excellent job which is the most important thing in any investment.