BSkyB Share Discussion Threads

[undervaluedassets] 04/4/2014 10:52

"subscriber numbers are increasingly meaningless".

I do not find 11 million subscribers (and rising!) 'meaningless' .

Author needs his head examined.

Also what everyone forgets again and again is 90% of SKY customers could not give a flying fxxx about Sport.

[minerve] 03/4/2014 23:09

I sold two tranches at 920.

I expect to sell the remaining above 920.

[philo124] 03/4/2014 13:52

So back to 850p then.

[miata] 03/4/2014 11:40

Oriel
BSY/BT reciprocal wholesale deal is unlikely. BT said BT Sport is about "changing
the dynamics in the broadband market" and raising take-up of fibre. BSY opposes both of these. Separately, if say the price for PL rights rises 50% next time around, this means £123m extra cost for BT, whose annual FCF is c.£2.6bn. But for BSY, a 50% rise means £380m more cost against total FCF of c.£1bn. It is key to remember BSY profits directly from retailing premium sports TV, but BT only wants enough premium sports TV to acquire/retain more broadband customers (in competition with BSY).

Any deal with VOD is unlikely to boost BSY's value. VOD is very unlikely to want to buy BSY because VOD Europe needs to buy fixed line networks; it already owns Cable & Wireless in the UK; c.50% of VOD UK's business is with enterprises; BT proved that key BSY assets (e.g. PL rights) are contestable. Also a commercial deal with VOD is likely to be problematic because each company has its own profit margin to protect; VOD UK came last in the latest independent evaluation of UK mobile network quality.

Telecom regulation set to change from a tailwind to a headwind. First, BSY cannot maintain that customers will value connected TV services more but they will also keep choosing copper over fibre broadband. In VMED's footprint (c.50% of the UK), we estimate fibre+'superfast' broadband penetration rose from 22% to 39% in 2013. BT's
fibre rates are c.2x copper rates, and they will stay unregulated at least until April 2017. Second, YoY change in BSY cost per copper line was -4% in 2013/14, but by 1 July Ofcom will decide whether this should be +1% or +3% in each of the next three years.

Worsening economics trump excellent management. All the above imply growing
strains on BSY's sales and costs. Also, despite strong take-up of paid-for subscription products, BSY's churn has edged up in each of the last five quarters. Lastly, subscriber numbers are increasingly meaningless because price promotions are more significant:
YoY change in BSY's reported ARPU divided by the average take-up of TV, broadband and line rental only per retail customer was -1% in 2012/13 and -2% in H1 2013/14.

Valuation. BSY is inexpensive relative to Europe's TV sector, but BSY's value drivers are very different. Also a "BSY has done it before; it will do it again" stance is high risk. BSY should trade in line with the UK market vs. a 25%+ P/E premium now. Lastly, BSY spent just £61m on buy-backs in Q1 2014 despite a residual c.£400m authority.

[undervaluedassets] 31/3/2014 13:19

BSY have 11 million customers that have a Skybox in their living room that they pay £600 odd quid per annum for; And then Sky can sell those same customers additional goods and services via that same box .

What a business.

[dmf] 28/3/2014 08:36

BSkyB climbs on consolidation hopes but Ukraine worries hit FTSE 100

Murdoch succession plan and more bids in US put satellite operator back in spotlight

[dmf] 27/3/2014 14:58

Yes - BSY currently has good momentum

Positive comment in FT Alpahville column today

[albany30] 27/3/2014 11:59

Reclaiming the ex-div drop like clockwork, and BSY bought back again at the dip - onwards and upwards!Unlike BT whose buybacks have all come at the peak and the way down! Now they're taking a breather, maybe their share price can stick for a while and take stock of the firing of BT TV's top dog pending the next 'strategy' announcement.

[dmf] 27/3/2014 11:39

21st Century Fox: What James Murdoch's Promotion Means For BSkyB

[pierre oreilly] 27/3/2014 09:27

Another £8m to support the share price and allow Murdoch to unload another £4ms worth I bet.

That's another £8m sky don't have to put into a premier league bid.

[albany30] 26/3/2014 19:33

Big question is are BT Sport the next ITV Digital?With the £930m committed to Champions League, BT are faced with a stark choice;1 - (over) commit to acquiring further sports rights, which really only equates to Premier League football (possibly in the region of £4bn if they have to, again, outbid substantially). This equates to a shot in the dark.Or2 - soak up the waste of the incredibly short sighted Champs Lge acquisition and then let the rights lapse, and quietly close BT Sport down. The safe play if BT acknowledge what they, as a company, can do (not taking into account third world customer service etc).With the key player behind the strategy to buy up sports rights instead of, say fixing rural broadband, now off, we can conclude that further investigation into the black hole that is the CL purchase has shown BT Sport cannot currently get close to making that money back.There is no short to medium term reason to see BT's share price rising, that's for sure. The desert of any sort of RNS was the clear sign that when the company should have been charging around acquiring content, it was all imploding behind the scenes.Perhaps BSY are now in position to do irrevocable damage to BT via Premier League rights? Guaranteed BSY will smell blood now, especially with a rudderless tanker marooned in foreign waters!!We shall see. Anyway, topped up BSY today with the inevitable dip. Onwards to 1000 now.

[albany30] 26/3/2014 16:17

Got my own stalker here! Any time I post, my oddball admirer posts immediately after. Rodney - everyone has you on filter! Head back to National Grid!Pierre Oreilly - 26 Mar 2014 - 15:17 - 1494 of 1495 - (Filtered)Pierre Oreilly - 26 Mar 2014 - 15:41 - 1495 of 1495 - (Filtered)

[pierre oreilly] 26/3/2014 15:41

UVA, here's my skycentric response to your post on the bt board..

UVA - Of course you think BT are mad - they are destroying the strategy of your chosen investment in Sky, who have had it far too easy for far too long. I mean, do you really think 50/60/70 quid per month for TV is sustainable? If you want premium cl football from next season, you'll have to bin your sky subscription (ofcom are making sure that will be easy after sky's recent behaviour) and go to BT. Bt are already picking up new Infinity customers, at pretty much zero marginal cost, due to the free football, and obviously that will continue, and that's how bt will make a profit from the football investment. We'll get an update on the numbers in a few weeks showing big growth in Infinity, and that's even before the cl is shown on BT Sport. And once on the books, there's all sorts of cross selling BT can do due to their quad play offering, while sky seemingly will offer nothing more than 400 channels of non-premium imo dross which they hope you will pay through the nose for. BT will simply take all the preium content they want off Sky - deal with it. They have massive resources compared to Sky, and since losing the cl, we haven't heard anything from sky as to how they are going to react to the new competition they face.

[pierre oreilly] 26/3/2014 15:17

Down and counting - back to oct 13 levels, before bt pinched their prime content. Great investment! Shows what a bit of competition can do, plus the odd bad bit of publicity like sending in the bailiffs to 80 years olds whO had properly cancelled their contracts. The Ofcom investigation into Sky binning cancellation requests has yet to be completed iirc, should make interesting reading when it comes out.

[albany30] 26/3/2014 14:29

Good time to top up for BSY holders, I'm adding.BT in all sorts of bother. They're firing the guy who had them commit £900m to broadcast something which, by itself, is worth about a third of that price?Suspect it means they've established that acquisition was woefully misjudged and they can't afford to get into the Premier League rights bidding. Also probably means they've understood just how much content you need to buy to be considered a national sports broadcaster.Catastrophic example of a company thinking that just acquiring something is the end game. If more bad news (and they've communicated no good news lately) comes out, DMF's target of 350 is very feasible. This is before OFCOM get stuck into their abysmal customer response times too. Nervy times.

[dmf] 26/3/2014 14:28

BT down 1.9% !!!!

[undervaluedassets] 26/3/2014 14:05

BSY went XD when?

[richard xi] 26/3/2014 13:50

Marc Watson, CEO of BT TV, is fired.

[pierre oreilly] 26/3/2014 10:15

hmmm, my price feed is showing sky down 2, whereas it's actually down 14 on yesterday's close. So it seems to be netting off the divi. I wonder if my price feed is part of murdoch's empire.

[pierre oreilly] 26/3/2014 10:03

DMF, You assert on the BT board that 'BT are going nowhere' (as usual with no reasoning whatsoever!). I expect you wish Sky were also 'going nowhere' rather than the rapid decline (again, no shareholders explaining why that is) sky is experiencing, and, imv, will continue to experience for simple and obvious competition considerations.

Remember that TV for BT is probably much less than 5% of it's business, whereas for sky it's near 100%, so any issues with TV have a small effect on BT, yet are the b all and eend all for Sky. Bt is expanding its TV business backed by mega resources by stealing the crown jewels off Sky - and to date, Sky have said nothing on how to meet that major - possibly terminal - threat |although some shareholders have dreamed of and posted that VOD coming to rescue them, again based on nothing except wishful thinking - I take it those have now woken up from that wishful dream).

For my part, this 'investment by wishful thinking' or 'investment by guessing' really isn't the way to go about things.

[albany30] 25/3/2014 18:06

Won't be as much of a drop as BT has had, that's for sure. BT floundering now at share price level from November? Considering current market state, these intraday fluctuations don't mean much to BSY's performance over past four months.

Plus always good to see stories like this. Content being king, and all that.

"21st Century Fox's FX Networks, U.K.'s BSkyB to Co-Develop Comedies"

hxxp://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/fx-networks-bskyb-partner-comedies-689873

[pierre oreilly] 25/3/2014 14:41

Yep, the open tomorrow will be 12p lower than today's close to account for going xd. Any traders who run trailing stop losses are likely to be selling, depending on their stop loss levels.

[paulstephens] 25/3/2014 10:52

and ex div is tomorrow... always a drop