Brixton Share Discussion Threads

[sportbilly1976] 09/6/2009 13:02

being nibbled at now.... 39772 more left

[hamsterape] 09/6/2009 11:58

The "wall" at 67p will move off as the price goes up - the MMs
often all sit at the same price away frm the market but then move
off to in quick succession to a new level if the price gets nearer.
The 50k order disappearing is more noteworthy - that was there yesterday
too and only got partially filled, I think.

Edit: It seems Sir Lumpalot is back selling at 66p. 43K still to go.

[sportbilly1976] 09/6/2009 11:50

level 2 strengthened recently....

edit: the 53k sell at 67p has disappeared

now 233k v 180k

[sportbilly1976] 09/6/2009 10:52

well we have a few at 66p or so, then a wall of 100k on 67p..

overall level 2: 218.7k v 236.8k

[madasafishman] 09/6/2009 10:23

gatecor
in bid situations the price can drop back to pre-announcement
price or lower, for no apparent reason although the more cynical amongst us would argue that this makes the end bid price look better for the buyer and
the share holder after seeing the share price hit the floor again is gratefull for the bid price at say 30%+ more than it closed at the day before.

when the bid is taken seriously ie:confirmed price with rns the share price normally sits about 10% under the offer price untill the deal is done

i feel we will get an rns either on the covenant issues or the bid this week
im sitting tight.....only time will tell if thats the right decision or not but i have been caught out on these takeovers before ie:sold on dips and missed the important rns
dyor

[sportbilly1976] 09/6/2009 10:14

gatedor,

nothing I'm afraid...it wasnt there during the day, isnt there now, but came on right at the close....

having a good day so far with HOIL coming back, just would be nice to have SGRO coem forward and name their offer price :-)

[gatdecor] 09/6/2009 10:08

any info SB?

[sportbilly1976] 08/6/2009 16:35

I noticed a 750k order placed on the book at 67.5 at 4.30pm too....

reasonable auction considering the drop into the close

[sportbilly1976] 08/6/2009 16:28

dunno, but only MM's left buying at the moment...some news to come tomorrow am which has leaked??

[gatdecor] 08/6/2009 16:27

why the drop?

[sportbilly1976] 08/6/2009 15:50

indeed....game of patience going on atm..

SGRO having a nice rise right now too...

[arty] 08/6/2009 15:40

Yeah, just waiting on explorer's "hunch". (o8

[gatdecor] 08/6/2009 15:39

very quiet here

[hamsterape] 08/6/2009 10:28

SGRO has a market cap of over a £1bn whereas BXTN is less than £200m.

But you can do the reverese if someone will lend the money - then you
saddle the new combined entity with the debt. A bit like a leveraged
buy-out by the management - often greedy managers with little understanding
of the realities of the market see an opportunity to pick up the shares of the
company at a cheap price in a depressed market or industry and get a private
equity firm to take a big stake if they also supply the bulk of the financing.
This debt is serviced by the company that was already in a struggling market,
so can be pretty risky. It can certainly stunt the growth and competitiveness
of the company as the products have to be priced at a level that generates
enough profit to service this new level of debt, which is quite often on
onerous terms favourable to the private equity firm.

That's my impression of LBOs anyway - anyone else got a more positive twist
or an example of a very successful one?

[jonwig] 07/6/2009 11:54

No, you've got into a tangle ... SGRO is much bigger than BXTN so the takeover would be a 'normal' one.

[iwillbe] 07/6/2009 11:13

jonwig...thank you - i did get my figures from ADVFN. Not very well up on RTO's is that good or bad news for BXTN. I know a few companies have had an RTO and the shares have soared. Sounds like bad news for SGRO though if their shares are suspended. It must only be a temporary suspension surely.

[jonwig] 07/6/2009 07:58

iwilbe ... BXTN £183m, SGRO £1,476m.
Did you get your numbers from ADVFN? Guaranteed to be wrong!

Though in fact a bid could be made for a larger company. Then it's called a reverse takeover. In the case of a RTO the bidder's shares get suspended.

[iwillbe] 06/6/2009 22:46

don't see how sgro can make an offer for bxtn. bxtn worth 1.72bn. sgro 1.46bn. how can a company make an offer when the other company is worth more.

[semoy] 06/6/2009 19:31

Thanks Hampster ... understanding a little more now (providing thats what happens) and i do appreciate it is only advice you give and we need to do our own research. As i mentioned on thread number 906 i am new to this game so learning all the time.
I had put 1k in bxtn (25p) and within 4wks it was worth 2.7k (ISA) so i sold because i wanted to guarantee that 1.7k profit in case bxtn actually went bump. I then put only 1k in sgro @27p becasue i felt it was a relatively safe bet and they were here to stay it would seem.
Now you have explained that is probably what will happen, if any business were to aquire bxtn i am sure the bondholders/banks (are they one of the same?) would prefer it to go to a company already in that business model.
I will top up with a few bxtn Monday unless the deal is already done prior to markets opening this coming Monday and i a too late.

Cheers All

[sportbilly1976] 06/6/2009 00:30

Hampster,

exactly.....by buying BXTN you are effectively (assuming the approach is made & accepted) buying SGRO shares for a discount.

[hamsterape] 05/6/2009 22:16

Semoy - why on earth would you buy SGRO if you were certain
they would launch the take-over of BXTN?

You would be much better off re-purchasing BXTN and waiting
to be swapped into SGRO shares at an effective discount of
probably near 20-30%.

Let's say SGRO offer four shares for every BXTN share (that's
effectively 85-95p paid for BXTN allowing for SGRO to fall a
little from the 26p they are now). Then by buying BXTN @ 70p
you'd get four SGRO shares for 17.5p each (70p/4).

[semoy] 05/6/2009 18:44

Good thread(894) lomax99 .. I bought BXTN at 25p and sold at 70p ... only a couple of grand but a great return.
Not being as knowledgeable as you guys/girls, i am now putting my money on SGRO becasue if they pull the BXTN deal off, BXTN will surely be worth a mint in a couple of years.
Hello BIGMAN786

[lomax99] 05/6/2009 15:53

thanks scburbs.

[scburbs] 05/6/2009 15:18

Lomax99,

In order to reach that value JP Morgan have written 24% off the December property valuation when a 10-15% fall is likely to be what BXTN will report to 30 June. In addition, JP Morgan have adjusted the basic NAV, i.e. they are including the SWAP liability which is not a real liability (and I believe may be reducing as "green shoots" start to move long term interest rates upwards).

If I redo their calculation of a 24% property valuation fall against the adjusted NAV of 290p then the revised NAV is in the region of 145-150p. Of course, property valuations have not fallen 24% in H1 and, therefore, the spot NAV should be much higher than that at the moment.

lomax99 - 5 Jun'09 - 14:09 - 896 of 901

scburbs/explorer, et al - JP Morgan's assessment of net book value at only 91p is a concern, any views? thanks