Brit Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[nadamson] 02/7/2010 09:53

you'd have thought the share price would be over £10 now, after two rejections.

[nadamson] 02/7/2010 09:53

you'd have thought the share price would be over £10 now, after two rejections.

[crawford] 02/7/2010 09:42

I'm more than happy to hold, I would think a bid of over £11 would be accommodated.

[itchycrack] 02/7/2010 09:38

So the big question now, is will Apollo come back with a 1100p offer????
Any views?

[jonwig] 02/7/2010 09:19

Indicative offer of 1050p:

The Board has informed Apollo, after carefully listening to its major shareholders, that an offer at this level undervalues the Company ...

I suppose we're no wiser, but the underlined bit prompts me to sit tight, after selling half at 952p. I can live with a share price of 800p or so, and annual divis of 60p for a while.

[nadamson] 23/6/2010 13:06

Tuesday 29th

But who knows what year !!

[harry rags] 23/6/2010 10:38

nadamson

When will this be announced?

[nadamson] 22/6/2010 09:42

£10.75 - you saw it here first

[jonwig] 22/6/2010 08:32

"A tough call for shareholders."

Indeed, and I've bottled it by selling half.

[little beaker] 21/6/2010 20:39

Chatter about BRE today on FT Alphaville



(cut n paste follows)

11:47AM
NH one more bit of RAW
NH rumours doing the rounds of increased offer for Brit
Brit Insurance Holdings N V (BRE:LSE): Last: 935.00, up 10 (+1.08%), High: 962.50, Low: 925.00, Volume: 249.75k
NH I think this was a STNRS story
NH but since the paywall and redesign
NH I haven't be able to find anything on the site
BE Likewise. The Times may as well not exist now.
NH anyway
NH the idea was
NH Apollo is offer something nearer £11 a share
NH and I have a bit of comment on this
NH from UBS
NH Worth a go ... Limited newsflow since initial offer
Brit received a £10 per share offer, which was rejected last week. Since then there has been limited newsflow from both Brit and Apollo. At the current time the stock seems to be incorporating an even chance of a revised £11 offer. We believe there is a higher probability of Apollo raising its offer, though whether it will be enough for a recommendation by the board is less certain

NH "Fair value" may be higher, but previous trading levels cannot be ignored
"Fair value" may well be higher when incorporating further streamlining of operations / underwriting, somewhat higher investment risk and therefore yield, somewhat more gearing, and the potential to sell the UK commercial operations in due course. However, we do not believe one can ignore where the stock was trading previously (0.7x 2010E TNAV compared to the sector on 1.0x).

NH Do not see trade buyers getting involved
There will be synergies for a Lloyd's acquirer, however, other companies are also trading at low valuations, while they have been cutting back their own London Market business. Our recent trip to Bermuda reinforced our view that low trading multiples of US Bermudan players imply focus on buybacks rather than M&A.


NH Adjusting price target to 978p; incorporating 65% of £11 offer
There is a significant amount of private equity funds to be deployed, and Brit is one of the cheaper non-life insurance assets. We adjust our PT for a 65% chance of a higher offer, but caveat that this is a special situation, where obviously a binary outcome means there is high risk to our recommendation and PT.

BE Hm. Fair enough. Binary outcome.
BE £11 is nearly 1 times book, so not hugely expensive.
BE But it's not going to trade anywhere close to that if the bidder walks.
NH nope
NH it will fall back a long way
NH Brit is not very well regarded
BE Some management issues, yes.
BE Which have been exacerbated by the handling of the bid approach.
BE So this is a tough call for shareholders.

[envirovision] 21/6/2010 11:59

LOL jonwig, i bailed in the end and wont be re-investing the dividend. A nice cash bonus to my ISA and i must admit to putting some of the profit into chaucer at 40.7p which i felt was a bargain.

[little beaker] 20/6/2010 17:31

Chit chat about ongoing negotiations in today's Independent

[effortless cool] 19/6/2010 16:47

Agreed, the downside is limited. My sale was part of a clear out exercise on the smaller holdings in my portfolio.

[jonwig] 19/6/2010 16:35

Thanks EC - I must admit I thought hard about it, but I decided the share price was sitting on the fence and max. possible downside wouldn't be as far as 750p. There'll be a bid premium in the price even if this one fails to materialise.

[effortless cool] 19/6/2010 15:19

Effortless Cool - 11 Jun'10 - 08:30 - 223 of 287 edit

Look at the share price today - £10 would do it, I think.


I don't think I ridiculed you - I would also have been happy with £10. As it is, I've settled for £9.10.

EC

[jonwig] 19/6/2010 14:21

Well, well!

I said I'd be happy at £10 and was ridiculed. All these posters who named £11, £13, £15(!!) have ... err, vanished.

Come on, admit you sold: EC, JTC, et al.

Me? Well I've got deferred gratification, and a 60p divi for a few years ... (hopes).

[jonwig] 18/6/2010 12:09

BRIT Insurance, the Lloyd's of London outfit, has asked the City watchdog to investigate the leaking of a £785m takeover offer for the business from US private equity group Apollo.

Brit's board, led by chief executive Dane Douetil and chaired by John Barton, is said to be concerned after news of an anonymous approach was reported by a trade magazine before a stockmarket announcement had been made last Thursday.

Barton has asked the UK Listing Authority, a subsidiary of the Financial Services Authority (FSA, to find the leak. A person close to Brit said: "They were concerned that the circle who knew about [Apollo's offer] from the Brit end was small, and they wanted to try and establish where [the leak] came from."

Although there is no suspicion of insider trading, the unusual intervention by the FSA threatens to disrupt negotiations between Brit and Apollo, which is mulling a higher offer after its first bid at £10 per share was immediately knocked back.

Brit is expected to meet its largest shareholder, Schroders, today to discuss the impasse with Apollo. The firm has the backing of most of its top 10 investors to hold out for an offer of at least £11 per share – equal to forecasts of its tangible net assets for 2010 – but some smaller fund managers say they would be prepared to sell at £10.50.

Apollo's advisers, Merrill Lynch and West Hill, are understood to have spoken directly to some shareholders. They have made clear Apollo is serious about buying the firm but said it is sensitive on price because it is not a trade buyer, and will not be able to extract significant synergies.

[crawford] 18/6/2010 12:08

Buy Recommendation in IC for BRE,
now why didn't they do that a week ago?

[makingheaps] 17/6/2010 12:57

All quiet now. Market clearly doesn't believe the bid will be upped and therefore will fall over. As there have been several failed attempts in the sector it wouldn't be a great surprise.

[little beaker] 14/6/2010 20:07

Sucky WSJ article with reference to £11/sh bid demand

[joan of arc] 14/6/2010 15:45

Like GFJ, Jonwig. Fancy seeing you here!

[jonwig] 14/6/2010 14:15

crawford - I'm sure that £10 is the absolute minimum before any arm-twisting starts.

For myself, I will exit at or near £10 as I have other homes for my money - not that anyone but me cares about that!

[crawford] 14/6/2010 13:47

Something's afoot.

I am a bit suprised that we aren't trading at a premium to £10 right now, surely Apollo is going to increase their offer.

If they don't, then they have basically told the market they view £10 as a cheap price for the business, either way we should be supported at £10?