|Cheers Clarksons1 so it looks like the steady rise up could continue then and now might be a good time to add a few whilst they're on offer, Buffet style?|
|Tanker Rates Surge as Middle East Cargoes Rise Before OPEC Deal
Oil tanker rates jumped to a four month high as traders booked the most cargoes for the time of year on record, offering signs that Middle East producers could be adding barrels to the market just before OPEC embarks on its deepest output cuts in eight years.Day rates on shipments from the Middle East to Asia jumped to $46,896 while a surplus of crude tankers in the Persian Gulf matched the lowest level in a year, Baltic Exchange and Bloomberg surveys showed
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are anticipating rates of $35,000 a day for the ships in 2017. That would make them profitable for a fourth consecutive year, according to estimates gathered by Bloomberg and cash-break even data from Bermuda-based Frontline Ltd., one of the largest operators.
|As with Clarksons, BMS is likely shaping up to experience a year of two quite different halves.
Weaker first 6 months, from falling charter rates and volume across both tanker and bulk markets.
Strong recovery in the second half from rising rates and volumes, and currency gains, although the full beneficial impact from weaker sterling is more likely to be felt in the next financial year due to their rolling hedging policy.
When the 31 Aug trading update was released, average VLCC rates were $15,500/day, and had been on a falling trend all spring/summer. In early September rates started to rise strongly, accelerating in the last week near to $50,000/day.
Likewise, capsize bulker rates averaged around $6,000/day April-August, then took off late August and now average around $15,000/day.
Shipbrokers earn a fixed percentage of the daily rate - so should be seeing a very material increase in earnings from the tanker and bulker markets since late August.|
|Interesting clarksons1 but if the figures are looking so good why is the BMS share price taking such a dive do you think?|
|better to sell than cross fingers|
|Edison report in May pointed out currency sensitivity with majority of costs in GBP substantial income in USD. Interested to see if that is of benefit as it also mentions they had $31m in forward currency contracts to sell back in Feb at an average rate of $1.477/£1.
Just bought a stack to go with my high yield small caps because I'm an impatient idiot. Fingers crossed they don't announce a divi cut at the end of the month.|
|Forecasts for this year to Feb'17 have been reduced and now range from 20.6p EPS by Edison to 23.2p EPS from Cantor. At 336p the P/E is pretty hefty at 15 or 16.
The dividend is of course terrific, and forecasts to Feb'18 now range from 25.8p EPS to 28p EPS.
BMS will remain on my watchlist. I wouldn't be tempted to buy at all at present given the possibility of further drift, but if the year end trading statement shows confidence in the outlook, matching the 2017/18 forecasts, that might be the time to buy.|
|Unsure but toying with a top up this afternoon. I think next update in October.|
|See this is on one of its periodic downward slides to a silly valuation.
Any guesses at to the bottom, I'm thinking 310-320|
|Seaborne Trade - 2016
In 2015, growth in global seaborne trade slowed, falling to an estimated 1.9% in the full year, following an expansion of 3.4% in 2014. Indicators suggest that there has been a pick-up in trade growth in the year to date, and there are a range of views on how things might fare in the remainder of 2016. But whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist, a basket of monthly volume data might tell you something...
Checking The Basket
Annual projections of seaborne trade can be useful demand side indicators. However, often it is difficult to get a real understanding of short-term trade trends. A year ago we looked at a ‘basket’ approach, which took monthly seaborne trade flows for a range of commodities, to help show year to date global seaborne trade trends. Although monthly data can be difficult to use, is not comprehensively available, and is generally subject to a lag of several months, the same monthly ‘basket’ approach examined a year ago remains a helpful indicator of short-term seaborne trade trends.
In January the index stood at -1%, but four months later it reached 7%. Furthermore, the index has picked up compared to 2015 average levels, averaging 2.1% in Q1 2016 and 4.3% in Q2. Some of this trend is accounted for by a rise in dry bulk trade which fell last year, with China’s dry bulk imports growing 6% y-o-y in 1H 2016, following a 2% drop in 2015. An increase in box trade growth has also been apparent, with expansion in Asia-Europe trade back in positive territory and growth in intra-Asian trade picking up.
Elsewhere, seaborne crude and products trade, which were two of the fastest growing elements of total seaborne trade in 2015, expanded firmly in 1H 2016. This was underpinned by robust growth in crude imports into China (16%), India and the US, despite the disruptions to Nigerian crude exports in recent months.
Half Full Or Half Empty?
Taking a wider view, even since the financial crisis there have been clear peaks in the index. The peak in early 2011 was partly on the back of strong growth in Chinese dry bulk, oil and gas imports and box exports from Asia. The index picked up again in 2012, supported by several months of strong growth in iron ore and coal trade to Asia. The next peak was in late 2013, when once again coal imports into Asia grew robustly and expansion in intra-Asian and Asia-Europe box trade was very strong. Today, you might conclude, if you’re a ‘basket half full’ type, that we’re heading steadily upwards again. But, if you’re a ‘basket half empty’ person, you might note that the peaks each time have been short-lived and have been getting lower.
Is There Something In It?
Our index appears to be on the up, although still at a relatively moderate level in historical terms, and with a volatile track record behind. There’s something in the ‘basket’ for both the optimist and the pessimist!
Report Source : Clarksons|
|Still a good company. Happy to hold.|
|The glut of oversupply of new builds should have peaked by next year.|
|New Edison research note...
Challenging trading climate - HTTP://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/braemar-shipping-services6/preview/
While disappointing, the tone of the Braemar trading update should come as no real surprise to markets, given the current trading climate. With a sound balance sheet and a cost-driven profit recovery expected next year, the dividend should be safe, underpinning the share price...|
|I bought some more today in the belief that this company is well managed and capable of trading through the cycle. I expect them to make every effort to maintain the dividend.
WJCCGHCC, can you expand on your view of the BDI. Why is it near the bottom ?|
|Perhaps but it is a very cyclical industry and the BDI is near if not at the bottom of the cycle. BMS has more relative exposure to the tanker market than Clarkson but Clarkson is on a PE of 22.
Stockdale reckon they'll maintain the dividend which gives a 7% yield while you're waiting for the cycle to turn.|
|Cantor have downgraded and cut forecasts to 23p EPS this year.
BMS will remain on my watchlist for a recovery in its markets, but a 366p share price puts BMS on a P/E of almost 16, which is surely too high. It may be difficult to sustain this price level imo at that rating:
"Profit warning – BMS has issued a profit warning. Tanker markets have seen lower activity levels and freight rates which has led to reduced revenues. In the dry cargo markets, the company states that despite healthy demand and good transaction volumes, overcapacity continues to depress freight rates to historically low levels. Cost cutting measures have been put in place to reduce costs in this area. BMS’s vessel sale & purchase and offshore desks continue to perform in line with management expectations, with similar levels of activity to the previous year. Generally, USD denominated earnings in these divisions will benefit from the weakness of GBP if the exchange rate is sustained at current levels. In the Technical services division, the slowdown in oil & gas exploration and new project work continues to impact surveying and engineering businesses, particularly in relation to offshore activity. To respond to these tough market conditions, the company has already made a number of senior management changes in the Technical division. The Logistics division continues to perform in line with management expectations. As a result of these events, earnings for the year ending 28 February 2017 for the group will be “materially221; lower than for 2016. BMS further states that it is “well financed” with a strong balance sheet and “substantial8221; order book, cost cutting measures and new divisional management should lead to an improvement in underlying performance. We cut our forecasts for underlying operating profit for FY17 by over 30% to £9m and our EPS is cut by 24% to 23p. Cuts are made to divisional profits in Shipbroking and Technical. Our FY18 and FY19 forecasts are placed under review. Our recommendation is changed to HOLD from BUY, our TP is placed under review. Interim results will be released on Tuesday 25 October, 2016.|
|IMO this sentence under the "Outlook" heading implies that the board are confident that the "materially lower" results in the first half will not impact too much on the full year figures.
"However, while the results for the year ending 28 February 2017 will be materially lower than 2016, the structural management changes and cost reduction measures we have put in place (the costs of which will substantially fall in the first half of the current year) will result in an improvement in business performance."
We will have to wait and see, though.
Similarly, the statement seems confident that if sterling remains weak through 2017, then there should be a definitive benefit to next year's results.|
|Yup, pretty clear it was coming. I suspect they'll maintain the dividend unless they believe this is a permanent shift - they have done through previous dips in the cycle.
EDIT - Bought some back at 350p.|
|Well a profit warning today then. Well predicted by Robcoo. They are silent on the dividend at this point. Probably waiting to see whether things will bounce back or not.|
|After holding these for some ten years, I have sold my remaining shares. Notwithstanding the recent trading update I cannot believe that BMS are immune to the same forces recently reported by CKN.
I have made a small loss on selling. I've held CKN shares for about the same period and in that time they have increased, even after the recent severe fall, by 240%|
|quite a large buy just popped up from yesterday (431p)....54k worth|
|AGM Trading Update - HTTP://www.investegate.co.uk/braemar-shipping--bms-/rns/agm-trading-update/201606301146108154C/
At the Annual General Meeting of the Company to be held at 12 Noon today, James Kidwell, the Company's Chief Executive, will make the following statement:
We recently announced our results for the year ended 29 February 2016, which showed the benefits of our strategy to diversify and grow the business. As anticipated, our market conditions have continued to be challenging. However, we believe that the balance between our divisions creates greater stability which will enable us to continue to build the Group in the long term through organic and acquisitive growth.
We do not believe that demand for our services will be materially impacted by the recent referendum result and the associated market volatility, however there may be second order economic effects that are difficult to foresee at this time. At present, we do not believe that the referendum result will affect our long term strategy...
Although the short term outlook remains difficult we expect that our diverse portfolio will provide opportunities to build the Group further and our recently completed bank facility of £30 million puts us in a good position to take advantage of these.|