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[strutt12] 19/7/2017 09:44

Mercer95
18 Jul '17 - 07:18 - 89238 of 89254 0 1
Can't see it working in London in any great numbers, no room for the infrastructure required to make e cars viable, you can barely find a parking space, where are all the extra charging points going if the numbers increase.

They have already started to add charging points on street lamps.

[smurfy2001] 18/7/2017 18:38

Inflation drops to 2.6pc on back of lower petrol prices

[smurfy2001] 18/7/2017 18:38

Ecuador risks Opec split by increasing oil output

[steve73] 18/7/2017 12:07

The west (incl. Japan) has a typical car ownership ratio of around 60-80% per population. They typically "retire" their cars at around 10-12 years old (when the cost of keeping it on the road exceeds its depreciated value, which is usually around 5-10% of new at that stage). There is unlikely to much increase in ownership, simply replacement of retiring vehicles. It would seem reasonable that BEV's will penetrate reasonably quickly.

Developing countries (C&S America, East Europe, West Asia) the ratio is more like 30-40%, and cars are on average older before they get retired. Ownership is increasing rapidly. It would take relative longer to replace the older cars with BEVs.

Poorer areas such as Africa & East Asia car ownership is currently around 10-20% (although rapidly increasing). In these regions many of the 30-40 year old vehicles are still in regular use (as the cost of maintenance is much lower, and the environmental/safety standards are not as strict), although obviously the growth in ownership is increasing rapidly, although slower in absolute terms than above.

In 2016 there were around 2 Million BEVs registered worldwide (0.2% of all registered cars & light vehicles). Around 0.7 MM new BEVs were sold (0.8% of total, c.900 <<). New BEV sales are increasing at around 30% per year(2015-16). All cars are increasing at around 3.5% per year (2010-16).
If these trends continue, then by 2030 BEVs will make up around 10% of new sales, or 5% of all registered vehicles (total c. 1.4 Bn). By 2040 75% of new cars will be BEVs; or around 35-40% of all vehicles (total c. 2 Bn).

These are my estimates from various published figures 2000-2016, incl. population growth rates estimates, regional ownership growth rates, ICE and BEV sales. Obviously it's dangerous to extrapolate historical trends too far into the future but it does give an idea of how quickly BEV could replace ICE cars.

[parvo] 18/7/2017 11:07

adamoo; financial calendar published on BP website

[adamoo] 18/7/2017 11:01

Does anyone know when the results are out

[parvo] 18/7/2017 10:41

It's ok looking at 'wealthy' nations, but that's not going to happen any time soon in Central and SE Asia, South America, Africa and other densely populated and underprivileged nations of the world, where oil will be king for generations.

[smurfy2001] 18/7/2017 10:01

If you look at Norway +25% of cars sold there are electric. They can still charge for free. The electric revolution has already started. But l don't think the UK has the infrastructure or energy surplus to compete with Norway.

[alphorn] 18/7/2017 09:31

....no internal combustion cars to be SOLD. Slightly different from your post about no internal combustion driven cars.

[buywell3] 18/7/2017 09:25

Politicians will follow the lead from France



We are talking only 23 years and NO internal combustion driven cars in Frogland

Other politicians including the UK are gearing up (queens speech)

Time for OIL BOD's to wake up and smell the coffee

They need to diversify whilst they can before OIL becomes an obsolete fuel source

As demand falls for OIL from the motor industry and transport industry ( diesel lorries ) the present over supply situation due to USA shale oil production will be exacerbated forcing OIL price lower.

The big producers have been advised this is coming ..... proof I hear you ask

Why do you think SA is now wanting to sell/float 5% of its OIL on to the market ?

They are seeking a value of $2 Trillion for the whole

5% = $100 Billion

More than the GDP of half the countries in the EU (not added together)

They want their lolly now before things get worse

So they can buy profitable businesses in the UK .... cheap due to a low pound

They know that lower OIL prices are coming and OPEC cuts don't work any more due to Mr Trump

[mercer95] 18/7/2017 09:10

That's because London has an open sewer/Thames river running through it, who wants to visit that, the government & the queen should clean that up rather than worry about charging points, no profit in it my guess.

[uncle_sam] 18/7/2017 09:08

Many charging points already exist and are growing in numbers. Look here:

hxxps://www.zap-map.com/live/

My local Waitrose has 4 installed charging points in their parking lot. They do not have a petrol forecourt but these take up very little space and have no labour overhead. Costs £1.20 to charge. Whenever I go there, there is generally at least one car hooked up.

[alphorn] 18/7/2017 08:54

#238. Interesting that you say that. On my rare visits to London I find that since the introduction of the daily charge there are plenty of spaces.

[optomistic] 18/7/2017 07:59

...I would be easy enough to introduce a special tax on electricity used at the charging stations or a meter on the car that would record and automatically charge the users account at any time.

[mercer95] 18/7/2017 07:41

More chance of Elvis having a come back, most councils couldn't operate without the revenue generated from parking

[steve73] 18/7/2017 07:24

They could convert all those bloody parking meters to charging stations for a start!!

[mercer95] 18/7/2017 07:18

Can't see it working in London in any great numbers, no room for the infrastructure required to make e cars viable, you can barely find a parking space, where are all the extra charging points going if the numbers increase.

[steve73] 18/7/2017 03:24

London & other cities are exactly the places where electric cars COULD be introduced successfully... A return commute from the shires of less than about 30miles each way could be achieved with a single overnight charge. Double that distance if workplaces are able to provide parking with charging facilities - much of which could be solar PV.
Supermarkets could provide free (Solar PV again) charging whilst you shop, for say upto 2 hours; no different to them providing discounted gasoline to encourage you to shop there.

E-cars would be totally unsuited for longer distance commuters or travelling salesman, or for the annual family holiday. These would probably be where ICE would still be in demand, at least until the battery range can be extended. Perhaps 250-300 mile range on a single charge with a full recharge (or battery pack replacement) in about 1 hour might see e-car taking on these roles as well.

Or, if full e-car ownership costs (i.e. capital/lease plus fuel) can be priced attractively, then use of an ICE rental for the occasional holiday would make sense.

Road haulage is one area where e-power could not easily replace liquid HC fuels. The total weight of batteries required would offset too much of the load carrying capacity. That said, many countries now use LPG or CNG/NGV (usually on economic grounds at this present) for bulk haulage, and this has a lower carbon footprint than diesel fuel.

But any such shifts in fuel usage will occur over many decades - global oil demand will continue to increase for at least the next decade or two, before perhaps demand starts to decline.

But long before that, as soon as e-cars start to make a significant contribution and the government(s) start to see a decline in fuel duty tax receipts, then electricity will need to be taxed higher to offset this.... and THAT will affect the non-drivers as well.

[mercer95] 17/7/2017 18:44

Plan to pass, yeah, government are good at planning, token gesture for the greens, won't bother with the speech, still can't see electric cars gaining any real traction any time soon.

[ianood] 17/7/2017 18:09

Yes, but how many and also where is the electricity to be generated from - not gas by any chance?

[buywell3] 17/7/2017 17:16

Read the queens speech

UK Government plan to pass a law to make garages(petrol stations) and motorway service stations HAVE charging points

[mercer95] 17/7/2017 16:26

Just can't see it working in London & other city centres, real estate at a premium so no room for rows of chargers & the parking involved to make it work in any great numbers

[strutt12] 17/7/2017 15:57

20 minutes to charge up whilst you have a loo/coffee break. Always leave home with a full charge, the way forward, been electric now for 3 years ;-)