Borders & Southern Petro... Share Discussion Threads

[cyan] 24/8/2015 09:27

Good morning whoppy.
Indeed the 2009 presentation does say c$25. Am a bit about cynical those numbers. FOGL were really looking on the bright side then.

Note the mention of TORA in the document. That was not in the really deep water and of course found coal.

I take more note of PMO's up to date worked numbers and its their critical opinion of $35 for the NFB that I give more credence to. That's what's driving their investment decision and the $50 cut off price.

Brent has crashed through $45 this morning . A little while ago standing at $44.30.

[whoppy] 23/8/2015 23:19

From a FOGL presentation says 100mmbbl field economic at $25/bbl

Economics Economics
• Excellent fiscal terms – corporation tax 26%, Royalty 9%
• Positive economics with a post tax NPV10 of $8/bbl*
• A 100mmbbl field is about the minimum fieldsize and would be
economic down to an oil price of c. $25/bbl
• Political stability with strong support from FI & UK Governments
• Excellent logistics: deep water harbours & international airport
• Access to a range of oil and gas markets

hxxp://www.fogl.com/fogl/uploads/companypresentations/OilBarrel1April2009_001.pdf

[trulyscrumptious] 23/8/2015 22:57

That was last year's article - before oil took a nose dive. No one knows how low it will go.

[cyan] 23/8/2015 22:33

Sealion about $35

SFB will be considerably higher

[cyan] 23/8/2015 22:27

Hi again. .
I would be interested in your source for the $30 number; Hope it was not Chrisoil lol.

The NFB breakeven is $35 .

[whoppy] 23/8/2015 21:55

Due to volumes in place, economics for SFB are viable down to $30 a barrel. SFB is all about the size of the prospects. BOR condensate is top quality and different from oil. It can be used in so many applications, whether blended with heavier oils or used for air fuel or other pharmaceutical applications. Condensate discoveries this size are unusual. Darwin can be produced with as little as 6 wells due to the quality of the reservoir. BOR are sitting on a lot of HC's with huge follow up. The running room is attractive. Just a question of when someone wants to get involved...imo

No good getting this stuff drilled when rig rates have gone back up and rigs aren't available. It's time to be smart and go shopping. You think BP are going to standby and watch the Yanks make billions taking all the oil out of a British Territory.

[cyan] 23/8/2015 21:08

Hi Barvin.
I hold FOGL and RKH.
If FOGL were to snap up BOR they would take on the liability to drill.
FOGL can not afford to develop drill BOR's with the POO so weak and limited cash. The NFB will take priority.
I doubt NOBLE will take on BOR's SFB drilling either. The SFB is twice as expensive as the NFB.
Any success in Humpback will be banked for future development when POO recovers.

The POO is sooo bad that even the NFB is at risk now.
PMO have stated that if POO is below $50 at year end SEALION will be deferred.
Its grim all round.

[barvin] 23/8/2015 20:45

Still think FOGL will snap this up after drilling campaign has finished. Will get em some cash and assets plus data at a snip all issued in FOGL shares.

All depends what happens with Humpback IMO, despite what management have said re:Humpback it has a huge effect on where this will go now.

A duster we'll be down to 2p with a bear market to take a bite too. A strike at Humpback, then maybe up to 5p-6p which will vastly increase possibility of a farm in which could put us back in 10p range.

[cyan] 23/8/2015 19:15

The markets valuation of BOR clearly demonstrates that potential new investors are not convinced by managements assertions. I , for one , look at BOR and see a risk of losing all my money.
I suppose there maybe a little cash left by autumn 2017 and they have data but what happens if the license is lost?
Surely administration followed by realisation of the best price possible for the remaining assets; principally the data. How much will that bring in.? How many will bid for the data?
The other alternative to administration is to try and throw the company into a rescuers arms; like Noble or FOGL.
In such a desperate situation how much will be paid?. Likely be all paper and at a ridiculous discount.

As I keep emphasizing, its no good the management telling the world not to get hung up on the 2017 issue because they are confident of achieving a farmin prior to the 'no drill' license test. I think they are delusional.
I don't believe they've judged the situation correctly; maybe wilful blindness as they missed the boat with those earlier offers.
I do not see POO being $100 again in time for BOR.

One can go on hoping management are right and that they will get the extension and in a few years a deal is sealed.
Without new assurances I, and I suspect other potential investors, will be looking at all the other oil producers who are at bargain prices but offer much much safer homes for our money.

[whoppy] 23/8/2015 18:36

Yeah they had bids..they liked what they saw but BOR were nuts to reject.
Viewing it is one thing, but owning the data is another. Owning the data gives a licence to drill so can't do that without BOR..which is why they are holding out. Maybe Humpback will change that if there is a lot of oil sloshing around.

[cyan] 23/8/2015 17:41

Hi Whoppy,
Haven't any past interested parties viewed it all in data room?
The interested parties whose bids BOR management rejected, doh!

[whoppy] 23/8/2015 17:12

FIG wouldn't take the licences off of BOR.
BOR own the 3D data which is their intellectual property and doesn't belong to FIG. Any new company wouldn't know where to spud a well so would have to do a new survey themselves and interpret the data. It's why BOR have invested so much. They have the key to the safe. If anyone wants to drill they would have to do a deal with BOR..or redo all the work...or buy the data.

[blueball] 23/8/2015 07:45

Another penney share.

[ohisay] 23/8/2015 03:24

Cyan - all the licences in the FI expire between 2016 and 2018 so BOR is hardly unusual in its area expiring November 2017.
It didn't need to do the last siesmic in 2013 but it did and through all the subsequent interpretation last year got the Darwin numbers up to 360m from the original 200m.Not to mention identifying the oil prone areas.
They've also done engineering/commercial viability studies etc.
So it isn't as if they've done SFA since 2012.
They've been in the FI since 2005 so why not believe them when they say they have good relations with FIG.?
Licensing regs have been changed in the past by the FIG to enhance oil co's flexibility on drilling so the idea they're not going to accommodate changes for the lower oil price/explo enviro over 2015/2016 isn't a runner.
How would the FIG be better off if it didn't take account of that and summarily ended the arrangements.?
They'll get a couple of years extension I've no doubt - share price weakness nothing to do with that.
I'm off to eat my bacon sandwich.

[cyan] 22/8/2015 09:19

Good morning ohisay.
Imo its a lack of confidence in the whole sector combined with disbelief of the company's assertions over the 2017 license conditions.
Of course the price of oil now makes drilling uneconomic but that will not last forever. Its whether BOR has the time to await a better market.
The board are paid well so they should be talking to the FIG now and agreeing a joint declaration to the effect that BOR is not going have its license removed in 2017.

[ohisay] 22/8/2015 07:25

Current EV about £2m - quite ludicrous.

[whoppy] 21/8/2015 16:58

About 1m shares in last half hour = £25k worth.

One was for 500k so £12.5k. That's a lot if you're a mug!

[bustedflush2] 21/8/2015 16:45

mugs buying

[whoppy] 21/8/2015 16:38

1.3m buys to 0.5m sells..and down 0.5p..yeah makes sense!

Why all the buying in last half hour?

[cyan] 21/8/2015 12:46

The way the company could dramatically improve sentiment is to approach the FIG and clarify with certainty the 2017 "no drill, no license" question.

We have previously discussed what, imo, was the unconvincing assertion from the board that THEY think they have done enough to full-fill license commitments.

I have to say that the board have every incentive to spin the "no problems it will be alright" line what with their generous pay packets and not wanting to be thrown out.

The chances of there being a drill before 2017 is remote imo. Time for the board to prove their assertions.

[whoppy] 21/8/2015 12:38

Yes cash pile will reduce although they have enough for 2-3 years with no operation. But they will get a farmin partner who will JV 50% and reimburse historical costs, giving BOR cash to fund the next couple of drills.

Now is the time to drill with costs down 40% and rigs available. It's just getting a partner to come in and drill. Noble are quite good at drilling success, they have the highest in the industry 60%..and they kind of know the attractiveness of BOR's discovery and follow up, they have the cash, they have the appetite, they have a rig..they just don't have BOR..although they have more than enough on their plate with FOGL..

BOR is more a car ready to drive..you just need to fill up with petrol turn the engine on and drive. With FOGL you have to do a bit more poking around, and make sure the car has oil, before driving it around. But it will be a bigger car!