Boohoo Share Discussion Threads

[fuji99] 31/8/2017 14:12

Cycle - I must say it was my mind that needed to be put in phase ...

[fuji99] 31/8/2017 14:10

@Cycle - Thanks a lot for clarifying.

[cycle2] 31/8/2017 14:05

Results are due on Wed 27 September, so just under 4 weeks from now. I believe this has been confirmed by the company.

Also, @fuji99: note my stats are for the share price rise before the trading update (to the day of the update), not afterwards...

[fuji99] 31/8/2017 13:51

Cheers Cycle - Excellent summary of important share price behaviour following key releases.
Are the results due end of September ?

[cycle2] 31/8/2017 12:40

A few posts ago I mentioned that BOO has a very reliable record of rallying in the 2 weeks prior to results.
I've just done a bit more research and found that this pattern appears to be very reliable. In fact, there has been a positive rally in share price for EVERY result-influencing RNS for the last 2 years (13 to be precise). The last one with a negative return was the Preliminary Results in May 2015 which was just 4 months after the initial profit warning drop.
I thought it might be helpful to share these findings below...

METHODOLOGY
- I have included all 'results-influencing' RNSs which is my definition of news that could change the share price (as opposed to notices of dates etc)
- For the comparison, this takes the closing price on the day of the update and compares it with the closing price of the trading day 2 weeks before and 4 weeks before. So, if the trading update was on a Wednesday, I went back to 2 Wednesdays before and 4 Wednesdays before.
- This is just a quick set of results - there could be mistakes as it hasn't been double-checked.

RESULTS
I've formatted this using '...' between columns because tables paste so badly. So the two percentage numbers are for percentage change if you had bought at close 2 weeks before results and percentage change if you had bought at 4 weeks before results.

DATE ... TRADING UPDATE DESCRIPTION ... % CHANGE 2 WEEKS ... % CHANGE 4 WEEKS
08/06/2017 ... Trading update (including fundraising share issue) ... +27.1% ... +41.5%
26/04/2017 ... Final results for 2016 ... +5.2% ... +11.7%
28/02/2017 ... Pre-close trading update ... +10.9% ... +7.8%
10/01/2017 ... Trading update to end of year ... +6.2% ... +23.1%
14/12/2016 ... Trading update and acquisition ... +6.4% ... +13.2%
27/09/2016 ... Interim results ... +4.2% ... +23.1%
09/08/2016 ... Trading update ... +22.4% ... +32.6%
08/06/2016 ... Trading update ... +9% ... +17.3%
26/04/2016 ... Preliminary results ... +10.1% ... +15.2%
15/02/2016 ... Property acquisition ... +1.3% ... +12.5%
12/01/2016 ... Trading update to end of year ... +6.1% ... +10.6%
29/09/2015 ... Interim results ... +2.2% ... +14%
10/06/2015 ... Trading update ... +17.2% ... +3.6%
06/05/2015 ... Preliminary results ... -7.5% ... +0%
11/03/2015 ... Trading update (notice that it was coming 2015-03-04) ... +16.4% ... +15.1%
07/01/2015 ... Trading update (EARNINGS MISS!) ... -48.1% ... -51.9%
14/10/2014 ... Interim results ... -6.3% ... -4.9%
12/09/2014 ... Half year trading update ... +3.5% ... +12%
12/06/2014 ... Results and trading update ... +1% ... -1.5%
05/06/2014 ... Comment on share price movement (in-line with expectations) ... +2.8% ... -14.3%

DISCUSSION
Some of these positive share price rises will just have been the fact that this has been a highly trending stock (in fact by my measure, the best performing stock on the whole of the LSE over much of the period). However, there does still seem to be a significant 'pre-results' rally, presumably caused by traders coming in before the scheduled results to turn a quick profit, or perhaps insiders (employees or their family members?) though I think that's less likely in this particular case (unlike much of AIM).

Of course, the question is, what about the share price since the June update when we had the exponential rally followed by a correction? I've already shared that I think the price action since then has formed a nice double-pullback and is looking good. If you look at ratios, the forward P/E ratio is now back to its usual value of 70 (reasonable for a game-changing high growth stock like this) and the share price looks to be back near the lower limits of the trend it has been following.

Most importantly, we're now dealing with revenue from 3 brands and the forward guidance looked to be conservative to those of us who have been following this share for some time, particularly for the new brands. It seems to me that it's far more likely this company will surprise to the upside than the downside given what we know of the management, their strategy and the growth prospects.

DISCLOSURE
Long-term followers will know that I've been long this stock for over 2 years since Paul Scott highlighted it on Stockopedia (remember that?) and have added on numerous occasions on the way up.
I have managed to 'find' some more money to top up again today, so I am not an unbiased commentator. I do however appreciate sensible, thoughtful discussion from both sides - long and short and try to keep myself open to hearing all well-researched views.

[bamboo2] 30/8/2017 08:40

Sogoesit, Cheers for the commentary.

ricky, If interested, google 'trendlines and chart patterns', there is some great info out there.

The Head and Shoulder patterns [both top and bottom types] have previously failed to reach target, so I am suggesting this one will also probably fail.

Potential turns marked [vertical magenta lines at apexes] for 1 Sept and 25-26 Sept

[sogoesit] 30/8/2017 08:21

On daily, a big wedge (triangle) with top descending at 273 on 09/06, then 245.5 on 04/08.
Bounded by an uptrend running from 210 on 31/05, to 221 on 21/07, then intraday rising lows.
Break-out I guess "soon" to 08/09 (agreed w/ bamboo).
There was a bid/offer range in the first 15 minutes yesterday of 227 to 238.
As bamboo implies break-out could be weak, say to 240(?) where lies my own "fair value"... who knows but I am biased to the upside.
Anyway, recently my CFDs back in profit... whew, hopefully the end of a few months' directionless struggle hitting lows on the way...

[rickyvee] 29/8/2017 23:05

So what does that mean in layman terms?

[bamboo2] 29/8/2017 21:53

Price within a Descending Triangle. Average b/o at 64% length of triangle. [approx. 8 Sept]

Potential H&S, but both prior H&S and INVH&S failed to complete to tp.

[cinoib] 29/8/2017 19:13

Extrader, maybe but time is a wonderfull thing and I have plenty. I sold ASOS at £12 and nearly cried when it kept going up even in a bear market. S I am hanging on tight to this one as all the signs are not dissimilar.

[babazurie] 28/8/2017 10:11

Thanks Cycle. Our views make a market.

What I won't be doing is deramping. My wife loves boohoo.

Let's see how September goes.

[fardistanthills] 27/8/2017 21:03

Extrader - tongue in cheek stuff from me. Having said that the management team at BOO strike me as impressive - know their business thoroughly. And having ambition as Carol Kane demonstrated is no bad thing to say the least. But as you say their time horizons will be realistic.

[pt725] 27/8/2017 20:00

Bobsha , what do u mean. Please post clearly

[extrader] 27/8/2017 17:50

Hi FarDistantHills,

I think there (the far distant hills) was where Carol was looking when she spoke ;->!

Inditex has been around over 30 years, has a major physical shopfront presence, 160,000 workers and a lot of IP in its brands

Brands

Under the Inditex umbrella are several brands that offer a variety of products aimed at different markets.
Company No. of shops Year of creation Market
Zara 2,232 1975 Fashion for men, women and children
Pull and Bear 982 1991 Casual laid-back clothing and accessories for the young
Massimo Dutti 769 1991 (acquired) High-end clothing and accessories for cosmopolitan men and women
Bershka 1,096 1998 Blends urban styles and modern fashion for young women and men
Stradivarius 1,015 1999 (acquired) Casual and feminine clothes for young women
Oysho 646 2001 Lingerie, casual outerwear, loungewear and original accessories
Zara Home 563 2003 Home goods and decoration objects
Uterqüe 82 2008 High-quality fashion accessories at
attractive prices

It has been online for about 10 years now and has an e-commerce presence in about 40 countries. So a bit more akin to NEXT than to BOO.

Maybe one day....;-> !

ATB

[bobsha] 27/8/2017 10:22

What is happening to the big ad campaign this w/e on amazon???

[berber1] 26/8/2017 23:35

£5 by Christmas, get on the band wagon. Follow the trend.

[fardistanthills] 26/8/2017 20:50

Boohoo £10, £30 - where have all the BOO bulls gone? Where's the ambition here!

There was an article in Retail Week in February with the headline:

"Boohoo’s Carol Kane: We want to be the Inditex of etail"



Inditex has a market cap of around £80bn.

And when BOO achieves this it will have a share price of £70 or so ;-)

[rickyvee] 26/8/2017 19:14

Extrader, is £10 realistic in five years if current growth continues?

[extrader] 26/8/2017 18:24

Hi Cinnoib,

ASC is currently about £ 5 BN market cap. Much as I'd like to see BOO at £30 a share, that'd be a market cap of about £ 30 BN....

ATB

[cycle2] 26/8/2017 14:30

@babazurie Well, it must depend on how you read charts... to my eye (and methods) the chart is showing a very nice pattern which would indicate some accumulation going on by big players.

The weekly chart has pulled back to the levels from which it usually rallies. It may take a few weeks to do so but it looks good and hasn't breached any important levels.
The daily chart has a classic bottoming pattern for an upwards trending stock with price action during August being less severe than price action in July - a complex (double) pullback, setting up for a potential rally.

Personally, I'd be very very hesitant to short any share that:
1. Has shown such a strong tendency to trend upwards, backed by a strong fundamental story.
2. Is about to issue results in 4 weeks' time. Before every set of results this share has rallied strongly, usually starting about 2 weeks before they come out.
3. The company has a history of under-estimating forward guidance and then beating it, after which the analysts (mostly) catch up. Of course, if results are not great then a short would be very profitable.

Just my opinion of course. Good luck if you do short it ;-)

[babazurie] 26/8/2017 13:28

Chartwise, this looks to be moving to a short in the coming weeks.

Nothing to do with the business. It's just charts.

[cinoib] 25/8/2017 19:13

So who sold out then this was up 1.75 when I left this a.m. and now I come in to see it down. Someone get nerverse and sell. this is a long term bet not a get rich overnight job or do some of you not remember ASOS 20p-8p then up to £70 even though it took about 7 years a 900 bagger in 7 years is ok in my book and I think Boohoo is going on a similar road and I expect in 5 years we will be looking at around the £30 mark.

[sogoesit] 25/8/2017 14:48

Hi pt275,
Thanks for feed-back and corrections... figures were assessment pre-equity raise so will update with half-year and your ideas.

[fuji99] 25/8/2017 12:59

Strangely today is one of the lowest volumes. Probably due to coming bank holiday.