Boohoo Share Discussion Threads

[fardistanthills] 27/8/2017 21:03

Extrader - tongue in cheek stuff from me. Having said that the management team at BOO strike me as impressive - know their business thoroughly. And having ambition as Carol Kane demonstrated is no bad thing to say the least. But as you say their time horizons will be realistic.

[pt725] 27/8/2017 20:00

Bobsha , what do u mean. Please post clearly

[extrader] 27/8/2017 17:50

Hi FarDistantHills,

I think there (the far distant hills) was where Carol was looking when she spoke ;->!

Inditex has been around over 30 years, has a major physical shopfront presence, 160,000 workers and a lot of IP in its brands

Brands

Under the Inditex umbrella are several brands that offer a variety of products aimed at different markets.
Company No. of shops Year of creation Market
Zara 2,232 1975 Fashion for men, women and children
Pull and Bear 982 1991 Casual laid-back clothing and accessories for the young
Massimo Dutti 769 1991 (acquired) High-end clothing and accessories for cosmopolitan men and women
Bershka 1,096 1998 Blends urban styles and modern fashion for young women and men
Stradivarius 1,015 1999 (acquired) Casual and feminine clothes for young women
Oysho 646 2001 Lingerie, casual outerwear, loungewear and original accessories
Zara Home 563 2003 Home goods and decoration objects
Uterqüe 82 2008 High-quality fashion accessories at
attractive prices

It has been online for about 10 years now and has an e-commerce presence in about 40 countries. So a bit more akin to NEXT than to BOO.

Maybe one day....;-> !

ATB

[bobsha] 27/8/2017 10:22

What is happening to the big ad campaign this w/e on amazon???

[berber1] 26/8/2017 23:35

£5 by Christmas, get on the band wagon. Follow the trend.

[fardistanthills] 26/8/2017 20:50

Boohoo £10, £30 - where have all the BOO bulls gone? Where's the ambition here!

There was an article in Retail Week in February with the headline:

"Boohoo’s Carol Kane: We want to be the Inditex of etail"



Inditex has a market cap of around £80bn.

And when BOO achieves this it will have a share price of £70 or so ;-)

[rickyvee] 26/8/2017 19:14

Extrader, is £10 realistic in five years if current growth continues?

[extrader] 26/8/2017 18:24

Hi Cinnoib,

ASC is currently about £ 5 BN market cap. Much as I'd like to see BOO at £30 a share, that'd be a market cap of about £ 30 BN....

ATB

[cycle2] 26/8/2017 14:30

@babazurie Well, it must depend on how you read charts... to my eye (and methods) the chart is showing a very nice pattern which would indicate some accumulation going on by big players.

The weekly chart has pulled back to the levels from which it usually rallies. It may take a few weeks to do so but it looks good and hasn't breached any important levels.
The daily chart has a classic bottoming pattern for an upwards trending stock with price action during August being less severe than price action in July - a complex (double) pullback, setting up for a potential rally.

Personally, I'd be very very hesitant to short any share that:
1. Has shown such a strong tendency to trend upwards, backed by a strong fundamental story.
2. Is about to issue results in 4 weeks' time. Before every set of results this share has rallied strongly, usually starting about 2 weeks before they come out.
3. The company has a history of under-estimating forward guidance and then beating it, after which the analysts (mostly) catch up. Of course, if results are not great then a short would be very profitable.

Just my opinion of course. Good luck if you do short it ;-)

[babazurie] 26/8/2017 13:28

Chartwise, this looks to be moving to a short in the coming weeks.

Nothing to do with the business. It's just charts.

[cinoib] 25/8/2017 19:13

So who sold out then this was up 1.75 when I left this a.m. and now I come in to see it down. Someone get nerverse and sell. this is a long term bet not a get rich overnight job or do some of you not remember ASOS 20p-8p then up to £70 even though it took about 7 years a 900 bagger in 7 years is ok in my book and I think Boohoo is going on a similar road and I expect in 5 years we will be looking at around the £30 mark.

[sogoesit] 25/8/2017 14:48

Hi pt275,
Thanks for feed-back and corrections... figures were assessment pre-equity raise so will update with half-year and your ideas.

[fuji99] 25/8/2017 12:59

Strangely today is one of the lowest volumes. Probably due to coming bank holiday.

[pt725] 25/8/2017 12:47

Hi Sogo, Sorry your figures on Boo are way out.There is no way it can grow like this.At some point the law of big numbers kick in and growth starts to level off.Also Boo turnover LY was 283 not 295 ( inc PLT 2 months) I estimate Boo will be in 430 - 450 rangeYour figures for Plt look conservative for this year as already did 30m for first three months.PLT this year will be between 120-150.Then growth lower than Boo, remember no men's, limited kids and no niche ranges.Your figures for NG also low. They have already done 4.5m over 2 months ( no real business in March) Just extrapolate that figure gives 27-35m.Your margin also looks high at EBITDA level , to really grow they will have to spend more on marketing in Europe etc. I live in Europe and Zalando are everywhere. It us a land grab and you have to join in Just some thoughts.

[berber1] 25/8/2017 00:01

Sogo, nothing is impossible with this company, indeed years your figure will become a thing of the past, I am hopping for the share price to double by Christmas. Blue skies ahead. Follow the trend, the trend is your friend. I think that Masty girl in the us will soon explode beyond put imaginations.

[sogoesit] 24/8/2017 21:38

I understand overall guidance is for 60% Growth.
Here are some figures I dreamed up a few months ago.

CONSERVATIVE GROWTH (from Revenue in millions GBP)
2017 2018 2019 2020
BOO 295 472 755 1,133
Factor 1.60 1.60 1.50

PLT 55 110 193 337
Factor 2.00 1.75 1.75

NG 5 10 20 40
Factor 0.00 2.00 2.00

Total 355 592 968 1,510
O'all 1.67 1.63 1.56

EBITDA 0.10 59.2 96.77 150.9675
TDA 0.20 47.36 77.416 120.774
EPS 4.13 6.74 10.52
P/E 80 70 60
SP 330.04 472.06 631.24

You can see that overall growth equates to 67%, 63% and 56% for 2018, 2019, 2020.
Apologies for carp formatting... excel doesnt seem to copy properly.

[adamb1978] 24/8/2017 20:44

Hello

Was just going through the numbers again and would welcome any views on the current year guidance, which looks ridiculously low:

- for core Boohoo, they say "Revenue growth from the boohoo brand is expected to be 25% to 30% year on year". Based on £283m from boohoo brand in Fy17, this implies £354m - £368m this year...however simply annualising Q1 with NO growth gets you to £346m

- for PLT, they say in the Q1 update "Revenue growth from the PrettyLittleThing brand is expected to be approximately 75% above the 12 month revenue to 28 February 2017 of £55 million". So, £55m * 1.75 = £96m....however they did £31m in Q1 so simply annualising that gets you to £124m

I know BOO are used to under-promising and then over-delivering, however that guidance appears nonsense....!
Any views appreciated.
Thanks
Adam

[cinoib] 24/8/2017 19:20

Hold tight to this is going up again tomorrow.

[au24] 24/8/2017 18:19

Don't sell out too soon,much more to come IMO.

[croasdalelfc] 24/8/2017 17:00

From the TU5) Revenue growth from the boohoo brand is expected to be 25% to 30% year on year. Revenue growth from the PrettyLittleThing brand is expected to be approximately 75% above the 12 month revenue to 28 February 2017 of GBP55 million. The balance of the growth to around 60% will come from the Nasty Gal brand.Basic maths shows that they are underpredicting PLT revenue by over £30m-£50mThey predict year revenue at £96m but took £30m in Q1. That leaves £66m in 3Qs or 22m a Q = negative growth!More like £150m plus then add on £20m from NG

[sogoesit] 24/8/2017 13:36

Interims on 27/09.
Markets are usually carp during September when the shakers & movers return from hols and start re-arranging the chairs... and sometimes the tables.
So a fair bit of time to see whether 60% current guidance stacks up or is exceeded.
Obviously if it gets exceeded.... this share can move rapidly (in both directions).

[rickyvee] 24/8/2017 13:32

Shabba, I have also noticed the heavy discounting and wondered if this is a bad sign but I'm no retail expert. Can anyone offer more insight into whether shabba is onto something here?

[shabbadabbadoo2] 24/8/2017 12:42

BOO are discounting very aggressively at the moment. TopCashBack currently have a 15% offer on BOO - which is VERY high.

Taken with the general economic figures out lately (low retail generally, except food), it would suggest to me that they are not getting the sales they expected.

As a result I have sold out for the short term - I expect the next update will not be spectacular, just OK, so the price might falter.

[joeall] 23/8/2017 07:44

Haven't looked at koov lately but last time Idid wouldn't touch it with a
bargepole.