Bonmarche Share Discussion Threads

[qvg] 27/4/2016 21:11

any views on to what extent they will benefit from the demise of Bhs?

[imranawan] 10/4/2016 19:41

I agree with your points Eastbourne but sold out for a 10%ish loss on Friday morning for the following reasons:

a) Trading normalised after they issued the profit warning in December, for a short period which they alluded to in the January update
b) However, in the statement they issued on Friday they alluded to trading being challenging again, and said they were much more cautious for 2017 and their outlook. As a result I believe earnings forecasts have been downgraded by 7% for 2017. I know the sector is facing challenges as Next reiterated in their recent announcedment but there could be other underlying reasons I guess.
c) Given the downgraded earnings forecasts, the share price is likely to drift down probably a little lower in the medium term, and people will now wait until the full year results, and examine the outlook statement closely.
d) When the new CEO starts I suspect she may well kitchen sink stuff, to set expectations low, albeit they are already low.
e) Even the current valuation is undemanding, if they do issue another profit warning the share price will tank. The market at the current time is unforgiving. Just look at GMD - in a completly different retail space, but they've issued two profit warnings and the share price has been decimated.
f) SHOE for example warned on profits last April, and the share price bounced has been mixed. They paid a nice special and regular divi, but again their outlook was cautious. Again I sold out for a modest profit in SHOE. I believe they're due to issue a trading update, and may well surprise on the upside, but I wanted to protect my capital.
g) I'd rather be invested in companies in the current market where they are able to grow earnings and as a consequence there is likely to be some appreciation in the share price. The current market tends to reward shares with a clear and demonstrable growth. I acknowledge some of these aren't cheap but you have to pay up for growth companies in the current market.
h) Given the current challenges in the retail space there are other retail plays in the market. Next has fallen 25-30% since the start of the year, and is a higher quality business on a fairly modest rating now. DEB is also cheaper.

I hope you and other holders in BON do well, but I lack confidence in the underlying company so have sold out. In my short investing experience, I tend to follow my instincts.

[eastbourne1982] 09/4/2016 13:59

I'm continuing to hold these, am currently down around 10% however on relatively small cap businesses that is nothing, I didn't think there were any real surprises in the update, anyone who thought there would be a huge improvement was being a tad naive imho, the shares are very undemanding in terms of valuation, the yield is now pretty decent and the financial position of the business remains excellent, very little has changed as far as I can see.

Strip out the cash (I estimate 15 - 20 million) and the market cap is around 65 - 70 million, the business is making over 10 million, obviously this is a relatively tough sector however I can't find many other businesses that are debt free, have a market cap under 100 million and valued at circa 7 times current profits, seems cheap to me.

[jimmywilson612] 08/4/2016 11:33

Its a 10% fall from a previous fall of 30%+

Sales and LFL are improving - just they have to discount the stock to get rid of it! Hopefully a nice warm summer will help keep the margins high.

I think fundamentally this is a good business, good target market, no debt & trading of a PE of 9 and a yield of 4% - they will have good years and bad years like any other retailer but as long as the strategy is the right one then I will continue to hold.

Wont add to my positions yet - will let the dust settle after today and to have more thinking time about this one.

[imranawan] 08/4/2016 10:44

Are you invested here philanderer?

[philanderer] 08/4/2016 10:25

Cantor Fitz again following the action ;-)

Retain 'hold' tp cut from 230p to 180p

[jojaken] 08/4/2016 09:41

Previous guidance was "The Board's view of the expected outcome for the year is unchanged and it therefore reiterates its expectation that the PBT will be within the range of GBP10.5m to GBP12.0m." So 10.5m is now the expected PBT compared with 12.4m last year and 8.0m the year before. So from growing at 55% last year to a forecast of possibly pretty much flat, the forecast is now down around 15%!

Perhaps not such a surprise in the 10% fall after all.

[imranawan] 08/4/2016 09:41

I sold out this morning for a 10%ish loss, as after reflecting on the statement, and their cautious outlook on the 2017 FY, I don't think the share price will make much headway in the foreseeable future. Amy annoyed as in hindsight I should have sold out on the small bounce in the share price last week, especially the recent statement made by NXT.

Given the weakness in the sector and NXT reporting that 2016 will be challenging I think BON will definitely find the next 12 months tough.

GLAH.

[jimmywilson612] 08/4/2016 09:16

Markets not liking what BON are reporting.

I have timed my buy poorly bs bought a few days ago when I should have waited! The beauty of hindsight

Whilst the results aren't great I also don't think they justify a 10% drop

[eastbourne1982] 01/4/2016 16:38

Yes hopefully this appointment should start to see a recovery in the price, there has been a bit more action in terms of trades this week and the share price is starting to creep up, I'm around breakeven now and am looking to hold for a run back to the £2.30 - £2.50 mark.

[jimmywilson612] 30/3/2016 12:12

See that BonMarche have announced Helen Connolly as new chief executive

Linkedin profile of Helen and experience to date:

hxxps://uk.linkedin.com/in/helen-connolly-1a816647

Seems to me a good appointment, Helen seems High Caliber and experience in the relevant fields for Bon Marche to continue to take market share in their key areas of over 50's fashion.

[battlebus2] 28/2/2016 21:20

Weather depending I suppose, Beth leaving was is a blow but like you say Eastbourne in time a recovery to £2.50 is realistic IMV also.

[eastbourne1982] 28/2/2016 20:21

Hi,

I'm not sure you are missing much !!

Like you say this offers good value and there is the comfort of a very solid financial position, I've been buying these during the last two months since the fall below £2, I think it is one of those where you just have to sit back and wait for it to recover.

I'm targeting a return to the £2.50 plus mark within the next 12 months.

[mrmark01] 26/2/2016 19:03

Hi all, new here. This one just came up on a screen for good quality value stocks. Looks cheap as chips - good divi, good ROE. What am I missing? Anyone care to give me an intro to this one?

[jimmywilson612] 25/1/2016 12:12

I am in here too.

Growing market, Profitable, Cash Rich, decent yield.

Lots of things to be happy about - shame the shareprice doesnt reflect this but I agree with an earlier poster that £2.40-£2.50 is where I can see this once they have a solid quarter to ensure that the Christmas was just a blip due to weather.

[ed 123] 25/1/2016 11:37

Hi Eastbourne1982 and wynmck.

Good to have some company. :-)

[wynmck] 25/1/2016 10:33

Agree.Topped up here Friday for eventual pick up here.
Decent divi while waiting.

[eastbourne1982] 25/1/2016 10:28

Hi Ed,

You appear to be talking to yourself here !! ; )

I've been buying these recently and in terms of value and financial position these are one of the most attractive plays I can find on the market.

At the current price the risk / reward seems excellent and I'm targeting a return to the £2.40 - £2.50 level over the next six months.

[ed 123] 25/1/2016 09:56

Up 4p now.

If it gets above 185p, it clears chart resistance.

[ed 123] 25/1/2016 08:48

Another uptick ...

[ed 123] 21/1/2016 13:59

Could this have found a bottom?

Order book looks very different this afternoon. 82,500 shares on the buy side; 12,500 shares on the sell side. Up 3.5p.

[ed 123] 19/1/2016 15:18

Feels like there is an overhang of shares here. Needs an institution to soak up the excess.

[deanroberthunt] 07/1/2016 17:06

slowly but surely heading for 120-130p

[eastbourne1982] 05/1/2016 10:27

Hence why share prices have fallen / are falling, BON is down 40 - 45%, I'd suggest a lot of bad sentiment is in the price here but hey I'm trying to predict the future not reacting to the past.

[deanroberthunt] 05/1/2016 07:26

Retail sales are grim even from NEXT.