Blackrock World Mining Share Discussion Threads

[my retirement fund] 01/2/2016 16:59

so Aleman finally starts to admit there is a slowdown in commodities and an oversupply of goods but rather than blaming it on natural periodic cycles, is blaming it on US politics and a blanket US media conspiracy cover up.

erm ok !

[aleman] 01/2/2016 16:18

China manufacturing is weak because the USA stopped buying stuff a year ago and is now more overstocked than it was in the last recession.



They need to cut about $100bn out of the supply chain at current sales rates but sales seem to be falling so that could reach maybe $200bn. US orders to China will have shrunk considerably. US Industrial Imports collapsed over 30% last year! They are over 40% down on their 2011 peak.



The USA is probably in recession already. Their GDP model seems to understate slowdowns. Q1 2008 GDP came in at 0.6% (annualised) but was eventually revised down to -2.7% after the election so Q4 2015's 0.69% is almost certainly headed down in later revisions. Of course the incumbents and the media don't want the Republicans to get in so they report a global slowdown and blame it on China. Nothing to do with Obamacare, tax rises, QE distortions or rising default rates on 7-year car loans as very loose credit begins to dry up at the junk end. Blame it on someone on the other side of the planet. How do they make more if their orders dried up at the end of 2014?

Commodity suppliers have been adjusting to this lower level of demand. It's just the pro-democrat media trying to make out like it is something new to deal with. US industrial supply imports peaked in 2011 and fell off a cliff last year. Now, what year was it that the commodity cycle peaked? Expect a lot of positive spin on fiddled numbers until after the election. Corporate retail updates so far have been very poor. Lowered earnings guidance has been spreading to other sectors. Will lower mortgage rates and fuel prices ride to the rescue? Well, it's possible but there are no signs of it yet.

Have commodity suppliers adapted to the lower level of demand? Hard to say. Some signs of it but it's patchy and demand looks set to fall further in the US and UK. There are some early signs China and some emerging markets might be bottoming out, though.

[rcturner2] 01/2/2016 15:12

Chinese manufacturing at 3 year low.

[essentialinvestor] 01/2/2016 10:09

Show Me The Money!, well remembered.

[neilyb675] 30/1/2016 13:04

from todays Telegraph:

"But perhaps the most important lesson to glean from the past 30 years of stock market crashes is that even those heavy falls in October 1987 ended up being little more than a stumble in the market’s long-term rise.

The message here is that those who hold their nerve, investing steadily and regularly, should be able to ride out the storms, particularly when you consider the added power of reinvesting dividends."

[essentialinvestor] 30/1/2016 11:26

Intend to sell a few more RIO on any Monday morning pop.
BHP and RIO both significantly lagged the wider UKX yesterday,
however the BHP move from the lows has been strong.
It is far easier to see RIO retest recent lows than BHP imv.

Whether wider markets have put in a significant interim low or this
is a short bounce, should be far clearer by this time next week.

[rcturner2] 29/1/2016 21:55

The most incredible fact about AIM is that 30% of all companies listed on AIM in its entire history have lost more than 90% of their value.

[my retirement fund] 29/1/2016 20:07

Show me the money and as soon as his guest tippers mostly would tip some hapless AIM crude it would instantly double or treble - I bet if you got the entire list of aim crud tipped you would probably find not one of them still exists and all went bust leaving investors with zilch.

[essentialinvestor] 29/1/2016 14:54

TW eh, remember him from back in the day on that Ch 4 share comp programme,
many may be too young to remember that.

[racg] 29/1/2016 13:52

BRWM doesn't own any Vale, well not in top 25 holdings. Also they have a fair chunk of loan stock/mining bonds, so should still be generating income, not forgetting Rio/BLT still paying. I ll stick my neck out and say they ll be able to maintain 3.5p and 7p, 10.5 total. - option income and reserves should help too.

[aleman] 29/1/2016 13:13

Vale said they might take the dividend to zero (to achieve the politically correct headlines) but said they might reainstate a small dividend later in the year. Miners do now seem to be cutting dividends hard. Analyst are saying some are saving the cash to do deals while assets are cheap. We could find the dividend at BRWM gets hammered later in the year but NAV rises on increasing speculation of asset sales and takeovers. There might be a slight consolation for the dividend in that BRWM will make probably make more income from optins sales after recent volatility. That will only be temporary, though.

It's good to see that base metals are creeping up as the $ weakens, although that is pretty small beer in the scheme of things.

[essentialinvestor] 29/1/2016 10:46

It was a commodity spike based on the Russia/SA rumour, mining was pulled
up with crude as I mentioned yesterday.

Ultra low energy prices have been one of the few supportive factors
for many miners over the last year, rising crude is not helpful once
the sentiment pop dissipates, which it has rapidly.

Used the spike to heavily sell down RIO as mentioned, as thought it would not last.

No bonus points for that call, my cat could have called it.

[aleman] 28/1/2016 16:59

Mining Index +0.35%. Oil and Gas +1.88%. Still sharply see-sawing until the end.

[aleman] 28/1/2016 16:16

All given up now. Mining index -0.6%. It must have been driven up by panic buying of commodities indices earlier on the Russian announcement and is now working itself out a bit, although the oil index has fallen back some and is now only about +1%. Strange day. I wonder if it was computers or people making the trading decisions.

[aleman] 28/1/2016 15:30

Half the gains given up in the 40 mins since my last post. What a carry on.

[essentialinvestor] 28/1/2016 14:46

Got up to 1761 on RIO, just missed selling another lot higher.

The market is trading with crude currently, and now people
appear surprised that SA may be willing to talk about cuts!, oh dear,
some of the bearish comments on Shell up to yesterday were clueless.

Higher energy prices not supportive to mining in everyday cost terms,
but it gets dragged up with commodity sentiment.

If you bought BHP anywhere near last week's lows and held you have done
exceptionally well, was not brave enough to buy as mentioned.

[aleman] 28/1/2016 14:42

Mining Index up 3% in half an hour. +3.2% on the day. Oilers Index +3.6% today. Most of rest of market still down. Add pushing another 3% outperformance to that chart I posted 40 minutes since.

[mister md] 28/1/2016 14:27

wow - look at the commodity & oil stocks go ....

"Oil rose to a three-week high in New York after Interfax reported that OPEC and other producers will meet in February to discuss a potential output cut.
Interfax cited Russia’s oil minister Alexander Novak saying that a 5 percent cut may be discussed at the meeting."

[aleman] 28/1/2016 14:00

Metals all down again today, yet the Mining Index is up slightly and BRWM is choosing not to follow it again. The index has now outperformed the FTSE100 by about 9% in two weeks. It does seem a bit volatile out there though. If you don't like the trend, just wait 5 minutes. There seems to be a few analysts and ratings agencies wading in and giving in weaker outlooks than the companies themselves are giving.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[llef] 28/1/2016 13:30

NAV 198 as of close yesterday.
so discount around 15% now.
A "dovish" fed statement last night might give some respite to the dollar surge and consequent impact on commodity prices.

[essentialinvestor] 28/1/2016 12:00

I have copper down nearly 1% atm, may be looking at the incorrect data.

[essentialinvestor] 28/1/2016 10:10

Sold some more RIO on the further pop,
not expecting a move much beyond current levels,
so if that is not the case it will be a bad call.

[fabius1] 28/1/2016 10:02

EI - I like the cut of Olivia Markham's jib. Some good Aussie grit there. I think the team's approach to stock selection is on the right lines and they seem to have identified the miners with leaner lines a little while back. Of course they cannot call the market but they can hedge where appropriate which is fine by me. It should find its way back onto the reserves, assuming they are on their game.