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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black Rock Oil | BLR | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 1.125 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.125 | 1.125 |
| Top Posts |
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Posted at 17/12/2008 21:14 by enamel From the viewpoint of avoiding bankruptcy the deal is a good one.We do not know the true asset value of BLR. But for the sake of discussion, assuming recoverable assets are worth at least £7m to blr, the initial deal secures 86% of the company for an outlay of £2m. The deal also secures a provisional future commitment to spend £5m to £10m although this is likely to result in a virtual takeover. Depending on the value of assets currently attributable to BLR and taking account of risk the deal appears to offer fair value with potential long term gain for existing shareholders if good levels of flow can be achieved from present and future assets. I am putting my shares in the bottom drawer and forgeting about them. Happy Christmas everyONE. 55 to 10 |
Posted at 17/12/2008 20:55 by captainnelsonforties Could Black Rock ever reach 90p?Give it 5 years and the following to occur. No more than the 240m odd shares placed. Arce developed and producing on the grand scale suggested by the Petrotech report, Acacia developed. Moneterey developed with two horizontal fracced production wells and producing with more proven reserves. Stinson proven and producing (currently an exploration prospect only, could be hit or miss). One or more of the deep light oil plays in Colombia ($10-14m odd per well) a glorious success with high flow rates and good recoverability. Given all those factors that require success on all areas would be the only possibility for BLR to reach £200m market cap. Imo they'll need in the region of 10,000boepd. That's not an impossible target, even with their current prospects and development targets, but damn would that need a total reversal of fortunes and a drastic change of luck. It'll take much more than a reversal of the poor global markets for BLR to achieve that. They need a deep light oil target with good flow rates to even have a hope. That is an exploration long shot at the moment. Now that BLR are relatively safe for the next 1-2 years and their current work commitments covered for the foreseeable future I'll be adding during the next 12 months, not immediately, but continuously to bring my 3p average closer to 1.5-2p. It may be a good idea to do the same especially if you have a 90p average share holding. Pacific Rubiales and Prospero will have plans for Arce and Acacia as laid out in the Petrotech report that is very much relevant yet again. Hopefully the GCA will see the light of day also. The plans for Arce starting late 08/early 09 could see at least one cluster of 3 wells in the next 12 months and BLR take on their first real production. No half-assed attempt this time either as we now have PEG as operator. If any one has doubts of these guys ability to develop oil fields in Colombia read up on their Rubiales field. ;) BLR have never been closer to a commercially developed field than now, so its gonna be an interesting 12 months to see what our Canadian partners can deliver. BLR are well geared up for any cash calls now, more than ever. Captain Nelson Forties |
Posted at 17/12/2008 13:14 by captainnelsonforties Hi Eddys,Firstly as Jim has stated this is a substantial investment by this new outfit. The share price of 1p seemed likely. That £2m is already significant dilution, but £2m + the Prospero cash of $2m expenses to be paid on Las Quinchas gives us quite a bit of CAPEX covered (potentially into Arce redevelopment and production) We'll only pay 25% of any costs after the prospero cash investment is used. This is interesting: "Subject to the technical and commercial evaluation by Cetus Investment's management team, Cetus Investment has agreed to provide a minimum of £5,000,000 and a maximum of £10,000,000 either by arranging third party debt for Black Rock or itself providing the funding either by additional equity or a shareholder loan." If fields are proven commercial by Pacific Rubiales its not necessarily a 1bn share issue, it could be debt/loan arranged and supported by commercial reserves and production, by no means guaranteed equity placing. I was getting more in the opinion that the game was up, especially this morning with the share price. This is a substantial commitment and will cover long-term costs on Las Quinchas for at least a year in my opinion. With the prospero cash we're looking at $5m approximate investment available for BLR. That is more than enough for the first cluster drilled and steamed and commercial evalation of Arce and most likely Acacia too. 240m after odd shares at 1p after placing = £2.4m market cap. Net assets were around twice this before any more wells drilled at Arce or Acacia. Long term on the development of Arce BLR can make a market cap of £20m realistic (8-10p per share) and easily supported by the Petrotech evaluation of a developed Arce, regardless of Acacia. If they end up with a billion odd shares it would be a case of seeing how the cash is spent evaluating these assets. While this placing is much much larger than working capital needs there is a feeling that they worked a miracle here to secure a minimum investment of £7m (subject to commerciality of assets) and a maximum investment of up to £12m (with the clause that Cetus cannot bid, exempt from the current takeover rules etc). That seems miraculous that we had fumes left and the long shot of £5m assets. We're funded to the tune well above our asset value now, so well done to managent. There is significant upside from the development of these assets, providing they prove commercial. I'm kinda optimistic about the future of BLR now. Its gonna take much longer than I intended to be here, but there is certianly hope for the crock for the forseeable future. Captain Nelson Forties |
Posted at 26/9/2008 16:39 by captainnelsonforties NikkiBrookes,I'm not in any hole yet I can assure you. I invested some money in here on the basis of our market cap being a fraction of our assets. My views have been reinforced by the fact that our partners were bought at a very strong price per BBL of Proven and Probable reserves for our same licenses. The CEO of Pacific Rubiales speaks highly of the Las Quinchas area. As a result my views have not changed since I invested here. Whether or not you are cynical of my views is largely irrelevant to me. You seem very sure of yourself with your comments about the future of BLR, what is your proof or are you just another bitter investor? I realise the risks here, but also the upside. There are a large number of clapped out companies on the market at present ripe for consolidation. There are no guarantees at the moment, these talks may or may not have a favourable outcome, but either way I won't be left in a hole, I'll just move on to the next high potential company. No-one invests everything they have in any one company. Where is your proof that the current negotiations, or that the offer by the Pacific Rubiales CEO for weaker partners to sell to them no longer stands? By all mean post it here. I base my views on the following facts: Book value of BLR's Colombian assets £2.9m Asset Value of BLR at last results £4.9m Market cap £640k BLR in negotiations with a number of parties as recently reported CEO of PEG made public their willingness to buy assets from Kappa's weaker partners CEO of PEG also suggested how exciting the potential of Las Quinchas licence was deemed by their company, supported by the Petrotech report. BLR holds 25.5% of this licence. I think you should learn to dissociate facts from fictional posts about holes, ramping etc etc. If you don't agree with factual posts then discuss in a mature and rational way. Captain Nelson Forties. |
Posted at 05/9/2008 17:41 by oilhunter2 Capt'n. re. GCA CPR. since Kappa is now PR. will BLR have access to the CPA?. problem is BLR has no money to fund its portion of the CPR so why should PR give BLR access to it. Also if PR wanted to increase its holdings in the Acre/Acacia Este asset, I would not give BLR access. just get rid of BLR. Either outright offer/purchase of the BLR permit equity or swamp with a high work programme budget which BLR could not pay and go into default. the operator with its high equity has total power over budget/work programme. it can get up to all sort of things...not that PR would of course... |
Posted at 05/9/2008 00:08 by captainnelsonforties Maxk,I guess you must have missed S Walkers last post on this thread. Jimarilo, As an apparent shareholder in BLR your lack of interest is astounding. The information is all in the Petrotech reports. It states how much these wells are going to cost its all in there and I have been posting it. The reality is very clear: 1. BLR are short of cash 2. BLR have assets worth at least £5m and a market cap of £900k 3. Arce development laid out by the report suggests 14,000bopd peak production and a total of 138 wells to drill, don't use outdated information, the petrotech has been commissioned by Pacific Rubiales. 4. BLR do not have the financial strength to commit to a work program on the scale of Pacific Rubiales a $bn Canadian company. 5. The CEO of Pacific Rubiales has suggested that any company that hasn't the financial strength to meet drilling obligations should sell to them. 6. In the purchase of Kappa Rubiales paid $18m/£9m per 1MMbbls of 2P 7. BLR have around 1MMBls of 2P from Arce and Acacia, given the acquisition price of Kappa around 27p per share. 8. One way BLR can seek value from their licences is to sell up and release value to investors. They cannot match the plans Rubiales has for Arce alone, let alone Acacia. 9. At peak development 22 horizontal development wells per year will cost $14m for BLR's share of CAPEX. Can they raise it or should they sell, the answer is obvious. 10. Don't be too quick to dismiss the points of others, when suggested these may be developed in the same way as other Canadian shallow heavy oil fields using horizontal wells you dismissed that out of hand. Low and behold, clusters of 4 horizontals with injector wells. 11. Acacia resulted in sanded perforations as no packers were installed. New wells will have packers for sand control and make a re-drilled Acacia-1 capable of up to 300bopd, and Acacia 2 up to 150bopd. These will probably also be horizontal completions that can increase the production index of a well as its drilled across the productive reservoir. 12. You did read the report didn't you? Its a good place to start. Well gemeroilio once you get your head around the report you'll be up to speed with the rest of us. Maybe then you and mack may even buy a few. Captain Nelson Forties |
Posted at 04/9/2008 17:09 by captainnelsonforties Hi Base,These are my opinions based on the available information. At least a few of us see a future and value to BLR. ;) Its all about timing, we have the proven and probable reserves from Arce at present. That report lays out the development plans for Acacia and Arce. The capital expenditure for these fields has been highlighted. Pacific Rubiales may have engineered that press release to put a point across. Its clear that they want to aggressively develop their assets through the acquisition of Kappa, raising Kappa's gross production from 4,000bopd to 12,000bopd by 09. Clearly that's not all Acacia and Arce, but they'll play a part. Acacia-1 and -2 will be re-drilled and sand prevention installed, Acacia-1 expected to produce 300bopd and Acacia-2 150bopd. Cash calls for these would be in the region of $3.5 - $4m over 08 and part of 09. Prospero would fund $2m on our behalf we would need at least another $2m before working capital to meet these commitments. The rest of 09 could push BLR as Rubiales wants 12 production wells drilled. Production cash flow wouldn't meet requirements. If they get a buyer for Monty they'll be good for one cluster on Arce and a re-drill of Acacia then its square one again. Hopefully an inproved 2P with more proven and probable oil reserves on both fields. Successful horizontals would increase our proven oil from the vertical holes we have. Acacia-1 and Arce cluster-1 (4 wells + injector) could provide BLR at best case approximately 250bopd ($25,000 per day approximately). Each Arce cluster will cost BLR approximately $2.5m. At that point they would need another $5m funds for cash calls for the 2 remaining clusters for 09. The GCA report should see the light of day by then so that may make it easier for us to raise these funds, but here lies the point that Mr Puntin made regarding significant dilution. Its my opinion that Mr Puntin wasn't making reference to any one company, but to all companies that share Kappa's turf. If you cannot make the payments and slow development plans sell to us. The last thing that Pacific Rubiales would want is delays caused by BLR going down the shoot and the red tape and months of delays caused by liquidation. Its much smoother as they recognise the value of Arce and Acaica to put in a realistic offer. Call in the media and make the suggestion publicly, hence we get a press report hinting at just that. Mr Puntin even makes a direct remark regarding the Las Qunichas licence. Hybrid, There is risk here in that BLR may not raise funds from the working capital requirements and a bid/merger may not emerge. That is the risk. Given Mr S Walkers appraisal of the management I believe that they will do their best to give something back to shareholders and something that will bring value here. I am of the firm opinion that with the quality of our assets demonstrated by the recent report and the interest of major players such as Pacific Rubiales in this partnership we'll get a deal done. That recent press article has made me even more sure of the direction this is going, I see it only as a matter of time now. I do hold more now than before. That was the CEO's put up or sell up comment to Kappas partners (BLR included). Check the report on Rubiales site. Lifting, transportation costs, infrastructure and blending of the Arce oil is only a fraction of the wellhead value of the oil and the Net Present Value of the assets. The field is set for a peak production of 14,000bopd estimated production (very commercial on that scale). I estimate that when the GCA report comes to fruition we'll have an asset value of £6-7m, management will push the exploration value of our licences to the potential bidder giving us a bid slighly above the value of our fields. Somewhere in the region of £7-10m would be fantastic. A £3m bid would get my vote and a 200% profit, but I would like to see some of the rest of you get something of value back or as much as possible. I'll support the "as much as possible" bid completely. ;) there are some investors here that have been broken by BLR's poor performance as can be seen by comments, that's understandable. There is value to these assets though even if not all can agree or see that. Fair value on BLR should be £6m (20p), but fear has driven us down. Enamel, A bid for Monty/Stinson could see a reasonable return and breathing space for at least a few months of the Pacific Rubiales plans for Arce and Acacia and bring more value to BLR through successful development. Where BLR get the cash to keep pace with the JV is where I cannot figure. Production cash flow won't match initial expenditure and given the recent article I see this heading in one dircetion, into the pockets of our banker. All in my opinion of course. If they can get a cash partner we could have a different story. I cannot see a company giving us that good a terms at present and they are going to want a very decent slice of the action. A merger with a co with $8-10m in cash and little assets could buy us some time. As long as the management do their best for shareholders in returning value to some here then I cannot argue with that, regardless of how it pans out in the end. Captain Nelson Forties. |
Posted at 04/9/2008 00:09 by captainnelsonforties Well Maxk,I suggest you read the Petrotech technical report as the numbers are all straight out of there. That is the quoted Net Present Value of Arce taken straight from the report. Oh don't worry I know exactly where the share price is and have a fair idea where its heading too. Not all institutions are selling, standard life were buying. Do you even know how these guys work? Some institutions base their buying on selling on criteria such as market cap. Some have to sell if the market cap drops below their fund limits. Some funds don't touch companies that have market values below £3m, once the threshold is reached they have to sell to meet their fund's policy. There are various different factors. My point exactly BLR has been heavily oversold, that's the reason I'm here. BLR selling their assets has nothing to do with which institutions chose to hold or fold. You strike me as a shareholder who has lost a lot on BLR, that is unfortunate and your bitterness may now have clouded your judgement. Maybe others buying now aren't mug punters but rather very savvy investors, not afraid of a bit of risk, and can see the bloody obvious. Arce alone is worth many times our current market value. Something that will be emphasized by the GCA report if the Petrotech report isn't clear enough and if you spend the time to read it you will see that its the case. I did note that the directors are doing their best to reduce costs and have done so successfully enabling the co to trade to the end of the year. During which time the GCA report will hopefully see the light of day. Also the CEO of Pacific Rubiales is looking to buy our partners that haven't the financial strength to meet their program in Colombia. Lets see will Pacific Rubiales say ohh no BLR's asset value is too far above our purchasing power. LOL They have just put a report on their site that has a Net Present Value of 50% of Arce at just over $300 post tax. 25.5% of Arce is therefore in excess of $150m post tax on future value and you think these guys might think twice about £5m, £7m, £10m. Pacific Rubiales could buy Loon Energy, Prospero Hydrocarbons and Black Rock Oil and Gas many times over without blinking an eye. If Pacific want the rest of Arce they will name their price. That articles reads in such a way that any company that stands in the way of Rubiales work program, it will be in their interests to sell to them. I cannot see BLR raising $14m a year to fund the capital expenditure on Arce. Jimarilo, if the steam equipment worked they may well have been producing in that region. One cluster at peak production is scheduled to produce approximately 1,000bopd over 48 months falling to 96% of the previous months production continusously during the cycle. It certainly isn't stopping the current development proposal for Arce. Its in black and white with expected production per horizontal cluster and year by year estimates are given and the peak production. Fut, Well I guess those who bought at 90p may need to average down somewhat. For BLR to achieve a market value nearly £30m it would take a miracle. If the GCA report confirms we have assets of £6-7m a bid is likely in that range or maybe a sweetner will be in there to clinch it for us say £9-£10m. We'll likely have 2P proven and probable reserves in the region of 1.2-1.4MMbbls so a £30m bid is highly unlikely. I'm sure those that bought so high had a strategy and may well have revised that at this stage. Either that or it may be taken out of their control if a bid for the company should emerge. Hybrid, Enough cash in the kitty until year end with Monty open for offers at the moment, so its not cut and dried as yet. The Net Present Value range placed on Arce after tax with various risked elements applied ranges from $331m to $121m for the life of the field. That's for Pacific Rubiale's estimated value to the field when developed. They have 50% interest in this field, so BLR have slightly over half of that interest at 25.5% of this block. So the NPV applied to BLR over the life of the field is $169m to $62m. The field life is estimated to be 11 years peaking at approximately 14,000bopd (gross) at full field production levels. Check out the Pacific Rubiales site and dl that file. Its quite large so it may take a while if you don't have broadband. Its a must read for anyone that holds BLR or is interested in an investment. Its puts things very much into perspective after the comments of the CEO of Rubiales suggesting that anyone who cannot meet the work program of theirs should sell to them. The Capital expenditure (CAPEX) for Arce is huge with up to 4 rigs planned on site to complete development and up to 22 wells per year. Its all there in black and white. Add to that the $15m CAPEX to develop Acacia drilling, seismic and infrastructure and BLR are going to require deep pockets. I have my money where my mouth is on this one. Rightly or wrongly I see BLR being taken over at a price that remains to be determined by a number of factors. This is my opinion and clearly not everyone shares it. As a holder of BLR on a public BB I'm entitled to state it. Captain Nelson Forties |
Posted at 30/8/2008 12:03 by captainnelsonforties Hi Jimarilo,I suggest you read up on the Canadian heavy oil industry. These wells could be very viable and look on first impressions to be similar to the very commercial shallow oil fields of Alberta Canada. Wells there can be boosted considerably by various technologies over cold flow rates, as much as x10. Horizontal completions may also be used with intermittent steam injector wells or downhole stimulation. Kappa weren't interested in developing these assets, they just wanted a quick exit/sale it seems. They have progressed their assets very little over the past year on the run up to sell off. When the operator was doing very little to maximize value to their assets through production and developmental drilling there was very little black rock could do only sit there and take it. Its a different story now. Prospero and Rubiales are essentially heavy oil companies. Rubiales in particular has a significant presence in Colombian heavy oil from the the Rubiales field. If you want anyone to operate and develop your heavy oil field its these guys. Take wells on Arce or Acacia for example. Arce is more straight forward as all wells are pretty much alike, 30-40ft pay on a 300ft oil column. Chicala responded with at least x5 production when successfully steamed. That would equate to 150-200bopd per well if Arce responds successfully. There is no reason to suggest that a properly working set of equiptment couldn't do the same to Arce. Acacia-1 could have the potential for up to 1000bopd if steamed to the max and optimum performance. Even at a fraction of these recovery rates and they would be commercial wells. Wells only cost approx $1m to 3000ft, we're talking $250k per well to BLR. BLR's assets have value as demonstrated by the petrotech report and soon by the Gaffney, Cline and Associates reserve report (previously blocked/stalled by Kappa it seems). These reserves will underpin significantly higher value to BLR than suggested by our market value. A number of factors could see BLR through this hard patch including the sale of Monty, a partner or Buyer for the rest of the company (Colombia), funding from those who see potential for our production base. The reinstatement of production from Arce and Acacia. Now that the dead weight operator has been removed from the necks of BLR and we have our new partners in place (prospero ready to commit $2m on our behalf to Las Quinchas) the next few months could be very interesting for BLR. We get any progress at all on Acacia and BLR could be a different beast. Rubiales and Prospero are ideal partners to move BLR ahead. If you have any doubts about this read up on Canadian Heavy oil and how those fields are developed. Nothing has changed since I entered BLR, they have a little more money than I first thought. I thought August was the finale, but we got a few more months. Why is that a good thing? The reserve report will add value to BLR, and in the mean time we may get Acacia-3 as a result of the new seismic, we also get a few months to work with Rubiales to get things moving again on our properties. The reasons I invested here haven't changed. £5m approximately in assets (probably more after the GCA report) and $2m committed work funding vs a £800k market cap. If the right news comes and the brakes come off there won't be anything stopping this ones for a little while. Its still an "if" for the removal of the uncertainty and risk, but we have just received a 3 month extension and we all know a lot can happen in the markets in that time. Captain Nelson Forties |
Posted at 22/7/2008 16:07 by djpreston Morning all. Long time no speak. Sorry about that, I coudl not post whilst reducing our position, as you will no doubt appreciate. I know its been probably my biggest loss (you really dont want to know how much) and I felt bad having supported the company via funding issues over the years. Ive finished my trades (so long as I dont have a couple of clients roll over on me) so I thought I might pop in for a Krappa, errr I mean cuppa, and see if the old kettle still works. Why did I sell? Well, for me the assets have always been good and surely worht a lot more than the Mkt Cap. John and Peter have worked bloody hard over the years in running BLR to the best of their ability. I dont think that anyone could have done any better. I have always been somewhat concerned regarding Krappa and their ability to manage their work operations, sadly this has proved to be the case several times over. If someone else with better understanding of heavy oil had been our partner then I doubt we would have had any problems. I also have issues with the costs of the wells that we were forced to pay, they seemed expensive to me but then wasnt their a connection between Krappa and the drilling outfit used? Weve also been sodding unlucky - look at Monty for instance. In short everythign that could have gone wrong did. BLR has always had its back to the wall with regard to finance, both working capital and funding our capex obligations. It became clear to me that the cash for working capital was running out fast and I decided enough was enough and scaled back significantly. It was a hard decision to take but I had to do it over weeks due to the liquidity or lack thereof in the stock. In this market getting any finding away is just impossible, especially for a microcap oil company operating in Colombia. If BLR could get the money together then I am sure there is some real value to be had from the licences. Our problem woudl be funding any significant drilling campaign of the type that woudl be needed to exploit Arce for instance or even a few drills on Acacia. That does not mean that there is no value to what is there. As Captain has pointed out so well, PEG is no slouch in the Colombian market, nor is Prospero. Both understand heavy oil and woudl be best placed to make somethign of what we still have. Hell, we are valued at £1m, chump change for someone like PEG. Hell, even the legal costs of a takeover would be 40% - 75% of our market cap at present. Even if it a tidying up exercise I woudl be very very surprised if they werent looking at slapping down a few quid and took us out. £3m, £5m? who knows? Im sure that Monty would find a buyer at a reasonable price. If PEG had previously bought out Krappa then I would probably have not sold out. As long as that bunch of muppets were in place, I couldnt see a future for BLR. Now? Id argue that whilst it is still very tight on cash, there is more going for BLR at present. Sure its massively high risk but thats when things are most interesting. One final word (in this post) is to again reiterate how bloody hard John and Peter (and Dawn) have worked on this and as we saw from the recent RNS, they arent giving up yet. I truly wish all my fellow BLRs well and hope this one turns out well. Darron |
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